9:16AM

For eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

Three-day synopsis and forecast for the Memorial Day Weekend (Saturday-Monday):

This is a slightly tricky 3-day forecast because of the proximity of a frontal system to the area. This front has moved through from the northwest early this Saturday morning and is now settling near the New England South Coast. A front that close usually means that things can happen, and they will. I think for today, the vast majority of southern New England is rain-free, not too humid, but very warm. We cannot rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm in  parts of RI or over Cape Cod and the Islands due to the front being nearby and some convergence (colliding air masses and/or wind flows that allow air to rise and form showers and storms). Any of this activity that does occur in that area will settle down tonight and expect a quiet but mild to warm night across southern New England.

Sunday, the front will still be sitting just to the south but should remain inactive in terms of showers/storms during the day. I’m optimistic that only some variable cloudiness will be the result of the front sitting there, as warm/humid air to the south starts to ride up and over a slightly cooler air mass to the north. As we often see during the late Spring and  Summer, these fronts can be the avenue for a cluster of showers and thunderstorms, and sometimes these are most potent in the overnight and early morning hours with this set-up. This may be the case here in which we see an area of showers and storms (some with heavy rain) moving through from west northwest to east southeast somewhere New England in the overnight hours of Sunday night and early hours of Monday morning. Since I am not sure exactly how widespread such an area would be and its exact track at this point, I am going to just add showers/storms to the forecast for Sunday night and try to pinpoint it as we get closer.

For Memorial Day on Monday, any of that activity should be winding down and moving out via far southern and eastern areas in the early morning, and I believe the front may be able to lift northward allowing much of southern New England to get into more humid and very warm air. I’m not 100% certain this front makes it all the way back through again, and that will determine how much sun comes back during the day and how warm it gets. So this is another day to check back on, but I’ll go the summery route for now. We may see showers and storms later Monday forming in NY and western New England and could see some try to approach at the very end of the day or at night.

TODAY: Sunshine more often than not but some clouds as well. Slight chance of a few showers or thunderstorms in RI and over Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs reach the middle to upper 80s most locations except 70s to lower 80s where winds come off ocean water. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s valley areas far inland to lower 60s urban areas. Wind variable  up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy, but there will be some sunshine as well, though clouds may tend to win out more toward the end of the day. High from the upper 60s coast and Cape to middle 70s inland. Wind variable mostly E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms mostly after 11PM, some possibly heavy. Low around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty near storms.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9AM especially far southern and eastern areas. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm inland late in the day. High around 80, cooler where winds come off ocean water. Wind becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

Synopsis & forecast for the last 3 days of May (Tuesday-Thursday):

A cold front is expected to slowly move through the region on Tuesday, and may  never completely make it through or just wash itself out (like a very weak wave barely making it onto the shore at the beach). Either way there will be enough moisture around for showers and thunderstorms here. What I am not really sure about is how Wednesday and Thursday play out between the remnants of this front and very weak high pressure trying to build in. I think Wednesday is more likely to be the less-fair of the 2 and Thursday stands a better chance of improvement, but take this outlook with a grain of salt for now and check back for more details later. Sorry for being so vague but I just don’t really know how those days are going to turn out yet.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 74.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 73.

7:44AM

Feeling better. Catching up on things.  Quick forecast update for now. Full discussion this afternoon! Weather isn’t looking so great the next several days (except Saturday). Memorial Day Weekend will not be a total washout, however there is a chance of showers and storms both Sunday and Monday.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. High from the middle 60s south-facing coastal areas to middle 70s most inland locations. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 55-60. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 84-89 except 70s over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 70-75 except upper 60s some coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Low 62. High 77.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 59. High 73.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

1:55AM

A weak southerly flow will dominate through Friday, including a weak disturbance drifting north northeastward through New England, means lots of clouds and a threat of showers and a few thunderstorms.

By Saturday, a cold front will approach from the west, turn the wind southwest, and bring in some summertime air, but also the threat of a thunderstorm with the frontal passage.

The next question, regarding the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend, is how far will the front move offshore? It may stay close enough to the coast that a shower and thunderstorm threat will exist both Sunday and Monday. But it does not look like this front will create any long-lasting unsettled weather. Also, the air behind the front is not that much cooler than the air ahead of it, so expect above normal temperatures for the entirety of the weekend.

The warm pattern will likely continue into the middle of next week, with a shower and thunderstorm threat Tuesday with another cold front passing by, and drier weather by Wednesday as high pressure moves in.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sun and clouds. Isolated showers north central MA and southern NH during the afternoon. High from the  middle 60s coastal areas to lower and middle 70s inland areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 55-60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest along the coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. PM shower/thunderstorm. Low 60. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 60. High 77.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

3:11PM

Updating the forecast, basically because I completely blew the amount and frequency of rain for today.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous showers and areas of drizzle/fog. Temperatures holding in the upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest coast. Wind light E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind mostly S around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 75, cooler coast.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

8:18PM

Low pressure will hang around through Tuesday then drift away at midweek, but clouds will dominate through the midweek period with a daily risk of showers, though the risk will be decreasing with time. It is still looking decent heading toward and into the Memorial Day Weekend but we probably will have to deal with the passage of a cold front at some point (most likely Saturday).

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of showers with patchy fog. Low in the 50s. Wind E around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s inland. Wind E shifting to S around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind mostly S around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 75, cooler coast.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

10:11PM

Upper level low pressure hangs near the northern Mid Atlantic Coast through midweek then should get pushed a little further south late in the week. Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to meander offshore of the Carolinas before heading out to sea by the middle of the week. For southern New England, a weak surface low pressure area will spin some moisture in from the Atlantic later Monday into Tuesday which will hang around into the middle of the week as well. This should get pushed out toward the end of the week as the northern jet stream gets a little stronger and further south and pushes things along.

An early call on the Memorial Day Weekend: Cold front passes through on Saturday which means a shower and thunderstorm threat, but not a widespread heavy rain event. High pressure builds in Sunday with a northerly wind and dry air, then moves offshore by Memorial Day when it warms up in most locations with continued dry weather.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low from the middle 40s inland valleys to middle 50s urban centers. Wind light SE to E.

MONDAY: Sun shines in the morning in MA and southern NH except less so over Cape Cod through RI then clouds overtake areas further north during the afternoon hours. Showers developing from south to north. High from the lower 60s at the coast to lower 70s inland areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of showers with patchy fog. Low in the 50s. Wind E around 10 MPH becoming light and variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s inland. Wind S around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind mostly S around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 73, cooler coast.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

4:50PM

The first tropical storm of the season, Alberto, has formed off the South Carolina coast, about 2 weeks before the official start of Hurricane season.. Alberto will meander off the coast of South Carolina before moving northeastward away from the US East Coast during the next few days.

Closer to home…

Approaching the half way point of what is a great weather weekend, there are no major changes to the discussion posted on the previous blog, so what follows is just an updated forecast with a few minor tweaks. A look at next weekend will take place with tomorrow’s blog update.

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the lower 40s inland valleys to lower 50s at the shore and in urban centers. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, becoming filtered at times by high cloudiness, especially south of the Mass Pike. High 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland except 75-80 inland areas of southern NH and north central MA. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds south to north. Showers developing mainly south of the Mass Pike during the afternoon may reach areas north of the Pike by the very end of the day. High 60-65 coast, 65-70 inland. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 66.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 65.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 71.

7:16PM

High pressure will be in control through Sunday as low pressure develops south of New England. This will be the low pressure area I talked about several days ago that we’d have to watch for late in the weekend. It may toss some high clouds into the sky on Sunday in southern New England, but it does indeed look like it will stay away through the weekend in terms of bothering the region with any foul weather. In fact it may take until late Monday to start having any appreciable impact. The upper level low pressure area driving this system will likely hang around the East Coast through at least the middle of next week (typical for spring) with some unsettled weather. By later in the week, things may improve as we head for the Memorial Day Weekend. But it is far too soon to promise any nice weather for that weekend. In the mean time, enjoy this one, for it will be fabulous for outdoor activities.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from around 40 inland valleys to 50 urban centers. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High ranging from the middle 60s immediate coastal areas to upper 70s some inland locations. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the lower 40s inland valleys to lower 50s at the shore and in urban centers. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, may become filtered at times by high cloudiness, especially south of the Mass Pike. High 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 66.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 65.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 71.

7:44AM

High pressure builds in today and lasts through the weekend with fabulous May weather!

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 68-73. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low upper 30s deep valleys to upper 40s urban centers. Wind NW around 10 MPH diminishing to near calm.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 70-75 except 60s coastal areas. Wind S under 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 52. High 76, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 78, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 72.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 66.

7:47PM original

7:26AM Wednesday update to remove time-periods already occurred and tweak forecast slightly (no major changes)

Wednesday: A wave of low pressure riding up a stationary front will produce plenty of showers around the region through early afternoon. A break in the shower activity is expected for mid to late afternoon, but another frontal system approaching from the west may set off a shower or thunderstorm in some areas by Wednesday evening. This activity may be heavier well to the west but should start to weaken as it enters the eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast area.

Thursday through Monday: 5 fantastic days as high pressure dominates. It seems pretty certain that a storm system offshore by Sunday-Monday will not have an impact.

Tuesday: Shower threat returns as a system moves in from the west.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon, a few isolated showers mid to late afternoon. Highs ranging from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s most inland locations. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting around or over 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm early (before 9:30pm) then becoming partly cloudy. Low 51-56. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 68-73. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 77, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 57. High 78, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 66.

7:28AM

A nearly stationary front across New England will be the running board for an area of low pressure to the south to come up and soak southern New England tonight into Wednesday. Wet weather will hold off for much of the day other than a few scattered showers. By tonight a more solid area of showers and thunderstorms will arrive, and this will continue into Wednesday. It will probably take until sometime Wednesday evening for the final wave of showers and storms to pass by as a final front pushes through from the west.

Dry air will sweep in by Thursday morning as high pressure starts to build in, and then holds through the weekend (hopefully, as we’ll have to watch a storm offshore by late in the weekend). For now the route will be optimistic through the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers but much of the time rain-free until the end of the day when more numerous showers will start to move in from southwest to northeast. High from near 60 south-facing coastal areas to near 70 most other areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Low 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers along with a chance of thunderstorms. High 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 68.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 72.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 75, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75, cooler coast.

7:59PM

I hope everybody enjoyed a very nice weekend in southern New England. Today even brought a taste of summer with some high temperatures going over 80 degrees. This has resulted in some pop-up showers across parts of NH which will fade early this evening.

A frontal system moving into the region will become stationary Monday through Wednesday.  Most of the shower activity associated with this front will remain west and north of the Boston area, mainly in interior eastern MA and southern NH, through Tuesday, though passing showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere. It is not until Tuesday night and early Wednesday when a wave of low pressure moves up along the front will it rain more significantly in eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH. One final trough may cause an additional shower or storm late Wednesday.

After an unsettled first half to the week, high pressure building in Thursday and Friday should hold on through the weekend with mainly dry and mild to warm weather. Cooler conditions can be expected in coastal areas, however. We will have to watch low pressure to the south by the weekend. Should it move northward, that would potentially foul up the weather. An early optimistic call of mainly dry weather is what I am going with now.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers mainly west and north of Boston. Low ranging from the middle 50s to around 60, mildest in urban areas. Wind S diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. High from 60 coastal areas to 70 some inland areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 53-58. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers, possibly heavy. Partly sunny PM. Late day t-storm possible. Low 59. High 74.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 68.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 72.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 65 coast to 75 inland.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 65 coast to 75 inland.

11:25AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

One change of note, more optimistic for Thursday. No big changes otherwise. Full discussion for the week ahead coming this evening!

THIS AFTERNOON: Sunshine gets a bit brighter before some clouds return by evening. High near 80 many areas, 60s where winds come off ocean water. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. High 65-70. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 56. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Low 55. High 65.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 69, cooler at coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 70, cooler at coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 73, cooler at coast.

12:25PM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. High from the middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest over higher elevations and anywhere the wind comes off the water, warmest just to the east of hills including much of Metro Boston. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY – MOTHER’S DAY: Partly sunny. High 75-80. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers mostly morning. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers mostly afternoon. Low 53. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 54. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 64.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 68.

3:25AM

A disturbance will cross the region from NW to SE today popping clouds and possible showers. There is a slight chance of some thunder and small hail with some of the showers, as it will be quite cold aloft, making the atmosphere very unstable. A nicer weekend is in store but it won’t be perfect as some clouds roll in late Saturday and again during Sunday as a warm front approaches late Saturday and a cold front approaches late Sunday. The early and middle part of next week look fairly unsettled once again.

TODAY: Sunny start then clouds popping up with scattered showers, a slight chance of thunder and small hail. High 62-67. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early then clearing. Low 46-51 except 41-46 inland valley areas. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine much of the day but increasing clouds from the NW late afternoon. High 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 72-77. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 63.