2:37AM

The signs are there, Alaska warming, Europe cold and snowy, MJO drifting toward phase 8 (trust me, non-met’s, you may not know what the MJO is but you want to see this if you are rooting for cold/snow here).

I have been a bit concerned about a potential snow event later next week. Also, with the “new” want-to-be regime fighting with the stubborn same-old-pattern, we continue to see models having difficulty predicting the medium range.

Taking all this into account, and adding on a hunch I have, I’ve decided to back off on the snow threat for late next week and also back off on any potential pattern change for the next 7 to 10 days, and possibly a little beyond that.

I’m going to stick with the more-of-the-same overall mild and now drier than normal pattern with periods of colder weather that don’t have the ability to sustain themselves. I still need more solid evidence before I start jumping on the big pattern change bandwagon.

So, sparing the day-to-day detail of weather systems, a good summary will be that we’ll see minor systems, changeable temperatures, and limited precipitation during the week ahead.

Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 47-52. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 23. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 36.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

3:52PM

The signs are there, Alaska warming, Europe cold and snowy, MJO drifting toward phase 8 (trust me, non-met’s, you may not know what the MJO is but you want to see this if you are rooting for cold/snow here).

I have been a bit concerned about a potential snow event later next week. Also, with the “new” want-to-be regime fighting with the stubborn same-old-pattern, we continue to see models having difficulty predicting the medium range.

Taking all this into account, and adding on a hunch I have, I’ve decided to back off on the snow threat for late next week and also back off on any potential pattern change for the next 7 to 10 days, and possibly a little beyond that.

I’m going to stick with the more-of-the-same overall mild and now drier than normal pattern with periods of colder weather that don’t have the ability to sustain themselves. I still need more solid evidence before I start jumping on the big pattern change bandwagon.

So, sparing the day-to-day detail of weather systems, a good summary will be that we’ll see minor systems, changeable temperatures, and limited precipitation during the week ahead.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, then clearing late. High 46-51. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light snow. Low 22. High 36.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 39.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 26. High 43.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 35.

3:22PM

Just updating the Boston Area Forecast on this post. Nothing new to add to the discussion at this time. Full discussion coming on tomorrow’s update.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 15-20.  Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 39.

FRIDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Low 22. High 37.

SATURDAY: Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

4:27PM

High pressure will control the weather much of the time this weekend and at least during the first half of next week. Only a few weak disturbances and frontal systems will cross the region but they will be good for periods of clouds rather than any significant precipitation.

The only significant change in the forecast that I can see through the next 5 days are to bring a cold front in a little more quickly Monday night or early Tuesday of next week, keeping the warm-up a little shorter-lived and bringing a return to seasonable cold a little faster than I indicated yesterday.

Looking way out, I’m feeling the need to mention that there are a few hints of potential storminess at the very end of next week, but the way this winter has gone, not going to hold my breath.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clouds advance west to east early then depart before dawn. Low 20-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low 17-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing to near calm.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny early then mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind NNW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 46.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 40 (falling temps PM).

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 40.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 22. High 36.

10:40PM

A weak low pressure area is passing well south of New England but a light air flow off the ocean has caused a few very light snow showers to be around during the day and evening. Drier air working down from the north will clear things out by early Friday morning. Expect chilly but quiet weather through the weekend, with the only other threat of precipitation being some snow showers Sunday morning as a disturbance passes by. Another warm-up is expected early next week with continued mainly dry weather.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated very light snow showers. Low 23-28. Wind NE-N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

5:24PM

Quiet pattern! Spring-like feel is on the way out, replaced by more seasonable weather through the weekend, only to warm up again early next week!

High pressure will be the main player through the weekend, a storm slides well south of New England Thursday, and the next frontal system approaches early  next week as another weak storm sails north of New England.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 47.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 44.

9:45PM

** SHORT TERM UPDATE **

A low pressure wave in the Gulf of Maine has shoved the warm front back to the south as a back-door cold front that has now chilled down southern NH and most of eastern MA. Temperatures have fallen from the lower 40s to the lower 30s and with some fog forming, there may be some patchy ice forming on untreated surfaces overnight. Be aware of this if you are heading outside tomorrow morning as it probably will remain chilly into mid morning.

A slight tweak to the forecast appears in the TONIGHT section below, otherwise, the remainder is unchanged from the original post.

4:34PM

The lack of significant winter storms will continue, in fact there is very little risk of important storminess for the foreseeable future (that is, 7 days, possibly longer). Temperatures will continue to ride a little bit of a roller coaster, though this will not be extreme either. Brief cold shots come between near to above normal temperature stretches, with the midwinter chill being a bit more dominant in the days ahead.

A warm front passed by early Tuesday. Snowfall was less than expected, with most occurring across NH and Maine. A cold front will pass by on Wednesday, but with very  mild air in place expect a risk of rain showers in a short window of time just ahead of the front. Generally dry weather is expected Thursday through the weekend as a sprawling area of high pressure builds across eastern Canada and the northeastern US. Low pressure will pass well south of the region Thursday with no impact.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog with moisture freezing on some untreated surfaces. Low 30-35. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy through mid afternoon including scattered rain showers late morning to early afternoon, then partly cloudy to mostly sunny remainder of day. High 51-56.  Wind WSW 10-20 MPH shifting to WNW with gusts around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind WNW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 36.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 38.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 21. High 39.

3:06AM

A warm front will cross eastern MA today with some snow (little accumulation) to mix. Low pressure passing to our north will push its cold front through during Wednesday, accompanied by rain showers due to a very mild air mass which will be over the region. High pressure will slowly build in and dominate the weather Thursday through Sunday. Low pressure will pass just south of New England Thursday and will try to skirt the South Coast with some light precipitation but it is not expected to be far enough north to bring anything into the Boston area. The next storm threat would be Monday of next week but it is far too early to tell any detail about that potential system. The overall weather pattern remains quiet.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy through midday with areas of light snow accumulating less than 1 inch, especially north of the Mass Mike.  Snow may end as a mix or light rain. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny remainder of the day. High 42-47. Wind S-SW under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers through mid afternoon. High 52-57. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to W late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

MONDAY: Chance of snow or rain. Low 28. High 38.

1:37AM

Just updating for timing of snow showers and time periods. Full discussion found at previous post.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers early, then mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-30 MPH at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Light snow west to east before dawn. Low 20-25. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snow ending west to east in the morning after accumulating 1 inch or less in most areas. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny late morning through afternoon. High 40-45. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 41.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

9:10AM

This weekly look at the next 7 days (8 including today) is being issued a little earlier than usual today.

First, I want to thank EVERY one of you for visiting and reading, whether you post in the comments section or not. But of course a special thank you goes out to all the regulars that carry on the daily weather chat here.

And anyone else, if you have not posted, feel free to do so if you have a comment or a question, whether you talk to me elsewhere or just here. Use the blog! This is why it’s here.

The only real rule is: Be respectful and civil. If we can all do that, this will always be a great place. You don’t have to agree with everything that is posted here, but we can always learn to tolerate others’ opinions, as tough as it can be at times.

Thanks again and enjoy! 🙂

On to the weather…

A weak cold front passed by last night with clouds and some gusty winds. We will be in between that and a slightly stronger cold front approaching from the west today, so expect a fair but breezy and chilly (but not too cold) day for late January. The second cold front will cross the region from west to east tonight after midnight, and is expected to produce snow showers and possibly a few snow squalls with minor snow accumulation in spots. Monday will be a breezy and cold day, but again not very cold by late January standards. A warm front will move  across the region Tuesday, and ahead of it an area of light snow will develop and move across New England as warm air rides up over the cold air in place. Again a minor snow accumulation is expected, but this may be a more general or widespread snowfall, and may come just in time to slick up some roads for Tuesday morning’s commute, so be aware in case… The warmer air behind the cold front will move in Tuesday night into Wednesday, with yet another wintertime 50-degree day not out of the question Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the west later Wednesday, but with the warm air in place expect rain showers.

I know there have been some storm threats advertised in media’s  longer range forecasts for the end of the week and next weekend, but at this point I am going to cautiously stay away from this scenario and say that the lack of phasing of jet streams to the south and north of New England will leave us in the middle with weak high pressure in general control and a few moisture-starved weak frontal systems passing by from Thursday through next weekend. The end of the week is not being forecast with high confidence so please check back for updates as the week goes on.

In the mean time, this is my take on things for the Boston Area…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 41-46. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-30 MPH at times.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers especially 11PM to 3AM from west to east, with a heavier snow squall possible. Snow accumulation of 1/2 inch or less. Low 23-28. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting back to W.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-30 MPH at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Light snow west to east before dawn. Low 20-25. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snow ending west to east in the morning after accumulating 1 inch or less in most areas. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny late morning through afternoon. High 40-45. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 41.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

3:41AM

Please see the previous post for replies to a few questions and some commentary on a recent snow event and the media’s handling of things, and some thoughts on the pattern.

A full discussion will appear here on the next forecast update, but for now just an update of the Boston area forecast itself…

TODAY: Mostly sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Low 30-35. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy through early afternoon then partly to mostly cloudy later. High 40-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH with stronger gusts, shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with stronger gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM snow. Low 22. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 49.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix at night. Low 32. High 39.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 37.

10:18AM

Boston Area…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunder through midday then scattered rain showers. High from 45 to 55, warmest from Boston south. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Low 30-35. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 44-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

3:00AM

We’ll continue with the pattern described in the previous blog for several days. I suspect the only changes will be to tweak timing and details of passing weather systems. We’ll see mostly minor to moderate precipitation events, with the odds favoring rain versus snow for the majority of what falls. The most unsettled times appear to be slated for Thursday night and the first half of Friday, late Sunday, and Wednesday of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of light snow, especially north of  Boston, dusting the ground. Low 25-30. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing north and west of Boston, mixed rain and snow near and south of Boston, with a slushy coating to 1 inch of snow possible especially in the region outside of Route 95 to around route 495, north of the Mass Pike, before midnight. Mix to mainly rain after midnight. Low 30-35 early then temperature rising toward 40.  Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 43.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of PM rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 43.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 47.

2:49AM

High pressure brings cool but dry weather today into Thursday. A weak storm moving southwest to northeast will bring a light mix to rain event late Thursday night into Friday. The next threat of precipitation will come over the weekend and it may be cold enough for now, but that looks like an insignificant event at this time.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. High 38-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or mix changing to rain late. Low 30-35. Wind SE 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Light rain in the morning. High 40-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 38.

4:40PM

After a slight bit more persistence to the wintry feel last week, we have returned to the pattern of milder than normal, brief cold shots, and no major snow threats that I am pretty confident will last through the remaining 8 days of January.

A frontal system will push west to east across New England tonight and early Tuesday morning as its parent low pressure area moves across southern Canada. High pressure builds into the region for midweek with dry and chilly weather, but no major cold. Several disorganized low pressure areas will be around at the end of the week, and at this point I’m still not sure how things happen down to the letter, but it looks like we’ll be affected by one weak low bringing enough mild air for a light snow to rain event late Thursday night and Friday, a weak storm offshore but possibly close enough for light snow/mix on Saturday, and upper level low pressure from the west bringing a snow shower threat for Sunday. Check back for more detail on the end of the week and for now just take my low confidence forecast with a grain of salt.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain showers. Temperature rising through the 40s. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to SW up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then partly to mostly sunny. High 47-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH, shifting to W.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower early, then mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 37-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine, late clouds, light snow/mix late night. Low 22. High 37.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Light rain early. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.