10:11PM

Upper level low pressure hangs near the northern Mid Atlantic Coast through midweek then should get pushed a little further south late in the week. Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to meander offshore of the Carolinas before heading out to sea by the middle of the week. For southern New England, a weak surface low pressure area will spin some moisture in from the Atlantic later Monday into Tuesday which will hang around into the middle of the week as well. This should get pushed out toward the end of the week as the northern jet stream gets a little stronger and further south and pushes things along.

An early call on the Memorial Day Weekend: Cold front passes through on Saturday which means a shower and thunderstorm threat, but not a widespread heavy rain event. High pressure builds in Sunday with a northerly wind and dry air, then moves offshore by Memorial Day when it warms up in most locations with continued dry weather.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low from the middle 40s inland valleys to middle 50s urban centers. Wind light SE to E.

MONDAY: Sun shines in the morning in MA and southern NH except less so over Cape Cod through RI then clouds overtake areas further north during the afternoon hours. Showers developing from south to north. High from the lower 60s at the coast to lower 70s inland areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of showers with patchy fog. Low in the 50s. Wind E around 10 MPH becoming light and variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s inland. Wind S around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind mostly S around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 73, cooler coast.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

4:50PM

The first tropical storm of the season, Alberto, has formed off the South Carolina coast, about 2 weeks before the official start of Hurricane season.. Alberto will meander off the coast of South Carolina before moving northeastward away from the US East Coast during the next few days.

Closer to home…

Approaching the half way point of what is a great weather weekend, there are no major changes to the discussion posted on the previous blog, so what follows is just an updated forecast with a few minor tweaks. A look at next weekend will take place with tomorrow’s blog update.

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the lower 40s inland valleys to lower 50s at the shore and in urban centers. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, becoming filtered at times by high cloudiness, especially south of the Mass Pike. High 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland except 75-80 inland areas of southern NH and north central MA. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds south to north. Showers developing mainly south of the Mass Pike during the afternoon may reach areas north of the Pike by the very end of the day. High 60-65 coast, 65-70 inland. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 66.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 65.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 71.

7:16PM

High pressure will be in control through Sunday as low pressure develops south of New England. This will be the low pressure area I talked about several days ago that we’d have to watch for late in the weekend. It may toss some high clouds into the sky on Sunday in southern New England, but it does indeed look like it will stay away through the weekend in terms of bothering the region with any foul weather. In fact it may take until late Monday to start having any appreciable impact. The upper level low pressure area driving this system will likely hang around the East Coast through at least the middle of next week (typical for spring) with some unsettled weather. By later in the week, things may improve as we head for the Memorial Day Weekend. But it is far too soon to promise any nice weather for that weekend. In the mean time, enjoy this one, for it will be fabulous for outdoor activities.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from around 40 inland valleys to 50 urban centers. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High ranging from the middle 60s immediate coastal areas to upper 70s some inland locations. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the lower 40s inland valleys to lower 50s at the shore and in urban centers. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, may become filtered at times by high cloudiness, especially south of the Mass Pike. High 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 66.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 65.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 71.

7:44AM

High pressure builds in today and lasts through the weekend with fabulous May weather!

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 68-73. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low upper 30s deep valleys to upper 40s urban centers. Wind NW around 10 MPH diminishing to near calm.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 70-75 except 60s coastal areas. Wind S under 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 52. High 76, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 78, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 72.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 66.

7:47PM original

7:26AM Wednesday update to remove time-periods already occurred and tweak forecast slightly (no major changes)

Wednesday: A wave of low pressure riding up a stationary front will produce plenty of showers around the region through early afternoon. A break in the shower activity is expected for mid to late afternoon, but another frontal system approaching from the west may set off a shower or thunderstorm in some areas by Wednesday evening. This activity may be heavier well to the west but should start to weaken as it enters the eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast area.

Thursday through Monday: 5 fantastic days as high pressure dominates. It seems pretty certain that a storm system offshore by Sunday-Monday will not have an impact.

Tuesday: Shower threat returns as a system moves in from the west.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon, a few isolated showers mid to late afternoon. Highs ranging from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s most inland locations. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting around or over 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm early (before 9:30pm) then becoming partly cloudy. Low 51-56. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 68-73. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 77, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 57. High 78, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 66.

7:28AM

A nearly stationary front across New England will be the running board for an area of low pressure to the south to come up and soak southern New England tonight into Wednesday. Wet weather will hold off for much of the day other than a few scattered showers. By tonight a more solid area of showers and thunderstorms will arrive, and this will continue into Wednesday. It will probably take until sometime Wednesday evening for the final wave of showers and storms to pass by as a final front pushes through from the west.

Dry air will sweep in by Thursday morning as high pressure starts to build in, and then holds through the weekend (hopefully, as we’ll have to watch a storm offshore by late in the weekend). For now the route will be optimistic through the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers but much of the time rain-free until the end of the day when more numerous showers will start to move in from southwest to northeast. High from near 60 south-facing coastal areas to near 70 most other areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Low 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers along with a chance of thunderstorms. High 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 68.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 72.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 75, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75, cooler coast.

7:59PM

I hope everybody enjoyed a very nice weekend in southern New England. Today even brought a taste of summer with some high temperatures going over 80 degrees. This has resulted in some pop-up showers across parts of NH which will fade early this evening.

A frontal system moving into the region will become stationary Monday through Wednesday.  Most of the shower activity associated with this front will remain west and north of the Boston area, mainly in interior eastern MA and southern NH, through Tuesday, though passing showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere. It is not until Tuesday night and early Wednesday when a wave of low pressure moves up along the front will it rain more significantly in eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH. One final trough may cause an additional shower or storm late Wednesday.

After an unsettled first half to the week, high pressure building in Thursday and Friday should hold on through the weekend with mainly dry and mild to warm weather. Cooler conditions can be expected in coastal areas, however. We will have to watch low pressure to the south by the weekend. Should it move northward, that would potentially foul up the weather. An early optimistic call of mainly dry weather is what I am going with now.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers mainly west and north of Boston. Low ranging from the middle 50s to around 60, mildest in urban areas. Wind S diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. High from 60 coastal areas to 70 some inland areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 53-58. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers, possibly heavy. Partly sunny PM. Late day t-storm possible. Low 59. High 74.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 68.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 72.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 65 coast to 75 inland.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 65 coast to 75 inland.

11:25AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

One change of note, more optimistic for Thursday. No big changes otherwise. Full discussion for the week ahead coming this evening!

THIS AFTERNOON: Sunshine gets a bit brighter before some clouds return by evening. High near 80 many areas, 60s where winds come off ocean water. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. High 65-70. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 56. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Low 55. High 65.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 69, cooler at coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 70, cooler at coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 73, cooler at coast.

12:25PM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. High from the middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest over higher elevations and anywhere the wind comes off the water, warmest just to the east of hills including much of Metro Boston. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY – MOTHER’S DAY: Partly sunny. High 75-80. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers mostly morning. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers mostly afternoon. Low 53. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 54. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 64.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 68.

3:25AM

A disturbance will cross the region from NW to SE today popping clouds and possible showers. There is a slight chance of some thunder and small hail with some of the showers, as it will be quite cold aloft, making the atmosphere very unstable. A nicer weekend is in store but it won’t be perfect as some clouds roll in late Saturday and again during Sunday as a warm front approaches late Saturday and a cold front approaches late Sunday. The early and middle part of next week look fairly unsettled once again.

TODAY: Sunny start then clouds popping up with scattered showers, a slight chance of thunder and small hail. High 62-67. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early then clearing. Low 46-51 except 41-46 inland valley areas. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine much of the day but increasing clouds from the NW late afternoon. High 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 72-77. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 63.

2:05AM

The unsettled weather pattern will continue for a few days as a frontal system drifts eastward across the region and waves of low pressure ride up along it. One such wave will pass west of southern New England today while a second one passes to the east on  Thursday. By Friday, this front will be pulling away but upper level low pressure will keep it somewhat unsettled. If we get lucky, much of the weekend will be good, but an additional disturbance may bring some clouds at some point (timing uncertain). A new period of unsettled weather is expected by the beginning of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers, a few possibly heavy. High from near 60 south facing coastal areas to near 70 inland areas.  Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT:  Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 55-60. Wind SW shifting to N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning with some heavy downpours and a slight chance of thunder. Showers less numerous in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 48. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 46. High 64.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 70.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 66.

TUESDAY:  Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 68.

9:01PM

We had our sunny day, well mostly sunny, as the sun did fade out before setting. Those clouds were ahead of a warm front which will passing by overnight and early Tuesday morning, sending some light rain across northern MA and southern NH. Most of the forecast area will be cloudy but rain-free for most of the daylight hours of Tuesday, other than the early light rain to the north and some late-day showers approaching the 495 belt and parts of south central NH. The cold front responsible for these showers will settle across the area from west to east and barely make it off the coast by early Wednesday. It’s possible that we get some partial clearing on Wednesday as one batch of showers moves offshore. If this happens, it may become quite warm for a time on Wednesday.  By Wednesday night and Thursday, a low pressure wave on the front may send a batch of rainfall into eastern sections (RI, far eastern MA, and southeastern NH). This will drag cooler air down from the north during Thursday, which should turn out much cooler than Wednesday.

Late this week, upper level low pressure may linger over the area Friday into Saturday, so don’t expect perfectly sunny days, but instead we’ll see pop-up clouds and possible showers as it will be unstable. Maybe by Sunday we can finally break out into a very nice day, just in time for Mother’s Day. I am cautiously optimistic about this day.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain north of the Mass Pike after midnight. Low 48-53. Wind shifting from E to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of light rain north of the Mass Pike early. Showers may reach the 495 belt especially north of the Mass Pike late in the day. High 58-63. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Low 52-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Showers lingering mainly southeast of Boston early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 68-73 except cooler in south-facing coastal areas. Wind S-SW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle. Low 50. High 59.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 49. High 61.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 48. High 62.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Late showers. Low 54. High 73.

1:17AM

A narrow area of high pressure will provide very nice weather for southern New England today. This will give way to approaching low pressure Tuesday which will drag a slow moving frontal system to the East Coast. This front will then stall near the coast and allow a couple waves of low pressure to move up along it, keeping unsettled weather, which arrives on Tuesday, going through the middle of the week. Timing of rainy periods is a little uncertain, so some short-term updates will be necessary to nail these down. For now, plan on wet weather any time during the Tuesday-Thursday period. By Friday, all of this should be exiting and hopefully setting the stage for nice weather for next weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by some high clouds in the western sky late in the day. High from near 60 coast to near 70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clouds advancing west to east. Low 46-51. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of light rain in the morning mainly north of the Mass Pike. Showers arriving west to east during the afternoon. High ranging from the upper 50s south-facing coastal areas to lower and middle 60s elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers, favoring early morning and late day. Low 53. High 67.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers, favoring morning. Low 51. High 62.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 47. High 64.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 68.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 73.

10:41AM

No, today is not going to be sunny. There is too much moisture, minor convergence, and some instability left. Not a washout though, even though a few showers are possible.

Monday looks perfect. Midweek looks wet. Late week look for improvement. Full discussion and forecast for the 7 days Monday through Sunday coming by late evening.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers especially inland midday and afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms especially near Route 495. High 60-65 except upper 50s coast. Wind light variable, onshore in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clouds dissipating with a bright just-beyond-full moon. Areas of valley fog. Low from the lower 40s in deeper valleys to  near 50 at the coast. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny. High from near 60 at the shore to near 70 over many inland locations. Wind light variable, onshore in coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers likely. Low 52. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. AM showers likely. Low 51. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 50. High 61.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 51. High 64.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 49. High 68.

7:56AM

Hanging on to lots of clouds today, though cannot rule out a few breaks of sunshine later in the day as dry air starts to work down from the north. Though it does not look like completely clearing tonight, hopefully enough clearing will take place to be able to view the “Super Moon” which is the full moon at perigee (closest it gets to the Earth). This time it is the Full Flower Moon, and if we can see it tonight it will appear about 14% larger and 20% brighter than average, just enough to be noticeable to the naked eye.

2 day break: Sunday & Monday. Splendid days, though it will still be a little cool at the coast as the wind will want to come off the water there. Look for a few areas to reach 70 away from the shore on Monday afternoon.

Back to the gray: What I said recently about a dry spell coming was not quite right. Though we are not getting socked with heavy rain, we’re certainly in a pattern that’s a little more gray and damp than what we saw much of the Spring so far. This will be proven true again as we enter another such stretch of weather on Tuesday that we may struggle to get out of for a few days. At this point I am going to lean away from a big storm and heavy rain that was depicted on some computer guidance and go with a more showery scenario for Tuesday-Thursday, with end-of-week improvement and (peeking ahead) hopes for a great weekend for May 12-13 (which includes Mothers Day).

In the mean time, an updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS MORNING: Overcast with patchy fog and drizzle and a slight chance of a shower. Temperatures 48-55 rising slowly toward noon. Wind LV mainly NE.

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sunshine are possible late day. High 60-65 except 55-60 coast. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Low 43-48 except 38-43 some deeper valleys. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 55-60 coast, 61-66 inland. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 49. High 60 coast to 70 inland.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 49. High 60.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 49. High 61.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 47. High 63.