9:38PM

HIGHLIGHTS…

Icy start inland Monday.

50 degrees early Tuesday?

Chilly midweek.

Unsettled late week.

DISCUSSION…

Low pressure will track northeastward across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada through Tuesday. A warm front will move into southern New England Monday, but cold air trapped at the surface, especially away from the coast, means that some icing is possible Monday morning. The good news is that most of the precipitation should be in the form of freezing drizzle and not heavier freezing rain during the morning hours. However, some icy untreated roads, walks, stairs, and driveways are likely before temperatures finally warm to above freezing in most areas by afternoon. At that time, steadier rain should move in as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will cross the region at night and temperatures will warm steadily ahead of it, possibly reaching 50 Monday night or very early Tuesday. During the day Tuesday expect a drier southwest to west air flow and sun mixed with clouds, as the main front will be moving offshore. A secondary front later Tuesday may produce a rain or snow shower, but its main purpose will be to introduce dry and chilly weather for midweek.

The next series of storm systems will threaten the region from Thursday night into next weekend, bringing unsettled weather. It is too early to know details of these systems, but there is some threat of snow.

BOSTON AREA FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of freezing drizzle  and areas of fog forming after midnight. Low 27-32. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Drizzle in the morning, likely freezing on untreated surfaces over inland locations with some icy spots  likely. Rain likely in the afternoon. High 40-45. Wind calm early then S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog through midnight, then clearing. Temperature rising through the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW late.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50 early then cooling through the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 39.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow to rain at night. Low 22. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 30. High 35.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

9:26AM

Not too often you get a snowstorm fitting neatly into a calendar day, but today is one of those times. A wave of low pressure moving west to east and passing south of New England is the cause.

As of 9AM, the heaviest snow has already fallen in some locations north of the Mass Pike and outside Route 95, though it will continue to snow there for several more hours. Light to moderate snow will continue elsewhere with the 2 to 5 inch amounts easily reached in most locations. Some 6 to even 7 inch totals are still possible mainly in areas south of the Mass Pike where heaviest snow lasts longer, and where some enhancement takes place from moisture off the ocean (especially closer to the South Shore). To the north, under 2 inches will fall near the MA/NH border. This is a light and fluffy snow for just about everybody (except a little wetter over Cape Cod). This should be a done deal by tonight as the wave of low pressure heads into the Atlantic and high pressure again builds north of New England.

The remainder is from the previous discussion followed by an updated Boston area forecast.

Sunday, high pressure will continue to hold on to the north of the region, sending a northeast wind into southern New England. This may produce some ocean-effect snow showers. As the high pressure area slides more to the southeast an approaching warm front will provide focus for moisture and warmer air to ride over New England, and with lingering cold air at the ground, the setup for some icing will be in place as rain breaks out due to the warming air aloft. Icing may linger into Monday morning over inland areas where cold air can be tough to dislodge. Areas closer to the coast will warm sufficiently so that plain rain will be falling by Monday morning. Eventually, all inland areas will warm to above freezing so that Monday turns into a rainy day for just about the entire region. Once a cold front crosses the region from west to east Monday night or early Tuesday, drier weather will move in, but this may prompt someone to argue the definition of a cold front since Tuesday will probably turn out to be the warmest day of the next several days. A secondary cold front late Tuesday will introduce colder air for the middle of next week.

Weather for Patriots/Ravens game in Foxboro at 3PM Sunday: Lots of clouds, chance of a snow shower, kick-off temp 33, end-of-game temp 30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Overcast. Snow of 2 to 5 inches with some 6 or 7 inch amounts possible in areas south of the Mass Pike and near some north-facing coastal areas to the south of Boston. Parts of far northern MA and southern NH will come in below 2 inches. High 22-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a few lingering light snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, best chance closer to the coastline. High 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Chance of sleet and freezing rain inland and sleet, freezing rain, or plain rain closer to the coast. Low 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain likely, but some icing conditions may persist over inland lower elevations during the morning. High 42-47 but probably  not until late day. Winds light E inland areas, SE 5-15 MPH coastal areas during the morning, eventually shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers.  Low 42. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain. Low 29. High 42.

4:20PM

A cold front whistled across New England Friday morning accompanied by passing clouds. Cold high pressure is building across the region at this time and will remain in place tonight before retreating into the Canadian Maritimes during Saturday. The frontal boundary now south of New England will be the running board for an open wave of low pressure moving west to east and passing just south of New England during Saturday. This will produce a light to moderate snowfall across southern New England, but it will be a light and dry snow in just about all of the region – easy to move. Only slightly wetter snow will occur over Cape Cod and the Islands and even some mixed precipitation may get involved there due to warmer ocean water warming the lower levels of the atmosphere. Sunday, high pressure will continue to hold on to the north of the region, sending a northeast wind into southern New England. This may produce some ocean-effect snow showers. As the high pressure area slides more to the southeast an approaching warm front will provide focus for moisture and warmer air to ride over New England, and with lingering cold air at the ground, the setup for some icing will be in place as rain breaks out due to the warming air aloft. Icing may linger into Monday morning over inland areas where cold air can be tough to dislodge. Areas closer to the coast will warm sufficiently so that plain rain will be falling by Monday morning. Eventually, all inland areas will warm to above freezing so that Monday turns into a rainy day for just about the entire region. Once a cold front crosses the region from west to east Monday night or early Tuesday, drier weather will move in, but this may prompt someone to argue the definition of a cold front since Tuesday will probably turn out to be the warmest day of the next several days. A secondary cold front late Tuesday will introduce colder air for the middle of next week.

Weather for Patriots/Ravens game in Foxboro at 3PM Sunday: Lots of clouds, chance of a snow shower, kick-off temp 33, end-of-game temp 30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low ranging from near 5 inland valleys to 15 coastline. Wind NW under 10 MPH early then diminishing to calm.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow of 2 to 5 inches with some 6 inch amounts possible in areas south of the Mass Pike and near some north-facing coastal areas to the south of Boston. High 22-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a few lingering light snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, best chance closer to the coastline. High 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Chance of sleet and freezing rain inland and sleet, freezing rain, or plain rain closer to the coast. Low 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain likely, but some icing conditions may persist over inland lower elevations during the morning. High 42-47 but probably  not until late day. Winds light E inland areas, SE 5-15 MPH coastal areas during the morning, eventually shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers.  Low 42. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain. Low 29. High 42.

3:28AM

(Most of the following discussion is the same as the previous, with slight editing for time periods and the addition of a summary for Thursday  night’s snow.)

Weather roller coaster is the theme of now and the next several days.

The Thursday night mini snowstorm is gone after depositing 1 to 3 inches of snow. Some areas southwest of Boston (toward Providence RI) reported up to around 4 inches due to a very heavy burst of snow late in the evening.

During the day today, a gusty breeze but otherwise quiet and cold weather is expected. Not far behind is the next storm system which will pass south of New England on Saturday. Enough cold air will be around for snow, but amounts will be held down by the fast-moving nature of the system. This looks like a dawn to dusk event for the Boston area.

Another in-between day is expected Sunday with quiet weather. Temperatures for the Patriots/Ravens playoff game at 3PM should be in the middle to lower 30s with a slow fall expected during the game. Winds should be on the light side from the north and for now I am going to leave the threat of any precipitation out of the forecast.

The next storm will arrive Monday, and cold air trapped at the surface may mean a little additional icing inland as it begins to rain due to warmer air coming in above us all. This warm air will win out and a milder, wet day will result. The parent low pressure area should pass northwest of New England by early Tuesday and we should see southwest to west winds sweeping into southern New England with mild air and a few rain showers. Cooler air will eventually move in, but it will be a slow process, leading to a dry and chilly day for Wednesday of next week. The next threat of unsettled weather follows later in the week, and to be honest that’s so far away that I really have no idea how that is going to evolve yet.

In the mean time… the forecast for the Boston area and its neighbors goes this way:

TODAY: Clouds may linger at the coast early otherwise mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 15-20. Wind W diminishing to near 10 MPH and shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow of 2-5 inches starting around dawn and ending around dusk. High 25-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow flurries early. Low 20-25. Wind NE around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 29. High 50.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 25. High 41.

This portion added at 10:25PM …

Even though below I indicate the most snow from 9PM to 5AM, the heaviest band of snow will cross the Boston area between 11PM and 1:30AM with up to 2 or 3 inches. Roads will be slick as the snow falls but will improve when treated and after the snow tapers off overnight. Additional snow may occur through 5AM but it appears the heaviest will be concentrated into the short period of time indicated above. Please use caution if you have plans to travel during and shortly after these times.

Remainder of this post is from early evening…

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5:53PM

We’ll continue with an active weather pattern, chilly in the short-term including 2 snow events, moderating thereafter with a rain event (may start as mix/ice) following these.

A small area of low pressure will cross New England tonight laying down a covering of snow, not very deep though with 2 inches being about the maximum potential amount (outside shot of a few 3 inch amounts). Most of this snow will take place between 9PM and 5AM. Right at the tail end there is a chance for a brief heavier burst of snow which could briefly reduce visibility and impact roads in a few locations for very early commuters.

During the day Friday, a gusty breeze but otherwise quiet and cold weather is expected. Not far behind is the next storm system which will pass south of New England on Saturday. Enough cold air will be around for snow, but amounts will be held down by the fast-moving nature of the system. This looks like a dawn to dusk event for the Boston area.

Another in-between day is expected Sunday with quiet weather. Temperatures for the Patriots/Ravens playoff game at 3PM should be in the middle to lower 30s with a slow fall expected during the game. Winds should be on the light side from the north and for now I am going to leave the threat of any precipitation out of the forecast.

The next storm will arrive Monday, and cold air trapped at the surface may mean a little additional icing inland as it begins to rain due to warmer air coming in above us all. This warm air will win out and a milder, wet day will result. The parent low pressure area should pass northwest of New England by early Tuesday and we should see southwest to west winds sweeping into southern New England with mild air and a few rain showers. Cooler air will eventually move in, but it will be a slow process, leading to a dry and chilly day for Wednesday of next week. The next threat of unsettled weather follows later in the week, and to be honest that’s so far away that I really have no idea how that is going to evolve yet.

In the mean time… the forecast for the Boston area and its neighbors goes this way:

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow of up to but mostly less than 2 inches especially between 9PM and 5AM, with an isolated 3 inch amount not out of the question. Low 21-26. Wind light E becoming variable and eventually W.

FRIDAY: Clouds may linger at the coast early otherwise mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY  NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 15-20. Wind W diminishing to near 10 MPH and shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow likely. Early call on accumulation 2-5 inches. High 25-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow flurries early. Low 20-25. Wind NE around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 29. High 50.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

7:43AM

This is a slight tweak of previous forecast details. Most of the discussion below is the same as from the previous entry. Tweaking snowfall amounts/indications down slightly for both events for now.

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Cold high pressure retreats to the Canadian Maritimes today. Weak low pressure will move across New England tonight and make an attempt to redevelop just offshore. This feature will produce snow, but amounts will be limited due to rapid movement and location of low pressure redevelopment. Another cold high pressure area will move across northern New England and southeastern Canada Friday. The next in a parade of low pressure areas will pass south of New England on Saturday. This low will have more moisture to work with and more snow is possible from it than the first system.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the weather for the Patriots playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy with a temperature starting out around 34 and ending around 31.

Another weather system will arrive Monday, and the early call on this one is for warmer air aloft meaning rain, but lingering cold air at the surface possibly leading to some icing. Plenty of time to worry about this one.

Boston Area Forecast…

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.Isolated snow showers may move in from the ocean this afternoon. High 27-32. Wind E around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow accumulating up to around an inch, isolated 2-inch amounts possible.  Low 20-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.
Yu
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow with a few inches possible. Low 24. High 33.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 25. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 28. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 35. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

9:07PM

Cold high pressure builds across New England tonight then retreats to the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Weak low pressure will move across New England Thursday night and make an attempt to redevelop just offshore. This feature will produce snow, but amounts will be limited due to rapid movement and location of low pressure redevelopment. Another cold high pressure area will move across northern New England and southeastern Canada Friday. The next in a parade of low pressure areas will pass south of New England on Saturday. This low will have more moisture to work with and enough cold air will be in place for snow in most of the Boston area, though warmer air to the south may work into areas south of Boston so mixing and rain may get involved. Otherwise, there is the potential for at least a few inches of snow in much of the region.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the weather for the Patriots playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy with a temperature in the 30s.

Another weather system will arrive Monday, and the early call on this one is for warmer air aloft meaning rain, but lingering cold air at the surface possibly leading to some icing. Plenty of time to worry about this one.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from near 5 inland valleys to near 15 near the coast. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. High 27-32. Wind N around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 2 inches with a few amounts of 3 inches possible. Low 2o-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow with a few to several inches possible, some mix/rain possible especially south of Boston. Low 25. High 35.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 25. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 28. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 35. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

4:44PM

A train of small and mostly minor storms will affect the Boston area during the next several days. Once such event is ongoing now, and others will follow late Thursday, Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday of next week, based on current timing. None of these events are expected to bring big snow.

Highlights of the recent past and the coming week+ appeared in the comments section of the last blog entry but i will re-post them here, then follow that up with the Boston area forecast…

– Weather-past: Well our little mini snowstorm is gone. I’m not completely satisfied with my forecast on this one. It snuck up a little more than I wanted it to, and some of the amounts were just a touch higher than I forecast. But no big misses, so I’ll take it. There was some cellular nature to the precipitation, evident on radar. I had 1.7 inch here in Woburn, while in Reading center there was under 1 inch. Move a bit to the east toward Peabody and there was nearly 2 inches. So the variability caused by the cellular nature of the precipitation was apparent even over these short distances.

– Weather-now: Periods of rain through evening and maybe some patchy fog over any remaining snow cover. Once the cold front clears the area later tonight, some icy areas may form, but it should not be a widespread major problem since we’ll see a gusty wind helping to dry the ground out, and no rapid temperature drop.

– Weather-future: Things I’m keeping an eye on as far out as I can see include the following…
* Windy/cold Wednesday
* Rapid-moving and weak system with minor snow event Thursday evening
* Breezy/cold Friday
* Snow/mix Saturday (track of system not clear yet)
* In-between Sunday but cool (not too cold) for Pats game
* Possible cold-air-damning icing situation for Monday???
* Warm-up squelched by high pressure to the north Tuesday
* Storm Wednesday (1-25), probably a cutter (tracks through the eastern Great Lakes), may open the door to very mild stretch to end the month…

TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and patchy fog until midnight, then clearing. Low 30-35. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40  in the morning then cooling through the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 12-17. Wind NW slowing diminishing to 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. High 32-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

THURSDAY NIGHT:  Cloudy. Chance of snow with minor accumulation expected. Low 26-31. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to N late.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 25. High 37.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light snow or rain showers. Patchy drizzle/fog. Low 30. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 29. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

7:21AM

Updating for time period.

A little more snow than forecast, by 1/2 inch to 1 inch in some areas. Just over 1.5 here in Woburn. Still a minor event, but given we’ve had pretty much no events,  it’s more significant to some people not used to it.

The remainder is from the previous post…

Milder air has moved in and will result in rain showers today. A strong cold front will cross the region at night, setting us up for a windy and colder Wednesday but with dry weather.

Chilly/dry weather will last into Thursday, and a weak system moving in at night will cause some snow showers. This will get out of here by early Friday with another fair but chilly day.

There are some questions for the weekend, and some potential changes to the thinking on the last post. I’m not quite sure how things are going to shake out yet, but some reliable guidance has shifted the track of Saturday’s disturbance further south, possibly increasing the chance that it will be snow. Sunday’s warm-up may also be delayed behind this system if a north or northeast wind sets up, as is shown on the same rather reliable guidance. But with this still many days away, I’ll just put out a low confidence outlook leaning in the direction of this guidance for now.

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny then cloudy. Rain returns later. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Slight chance of a snow shower late. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 14. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 23. High 35.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 29. High 49.

10:08PM

Warm air returning first above us and then at the surface will cause a burst of snow and snow pellets in some locations late this evening. Accumulations should be under 1 inch in just about all locations as this is a fast-moving area and not very wide.

Once a second area of precipitation arrives overnight, temperatures will be warm enough aloft for rain, and marginal at the surface near 495 so that some icing may take place. Elsewhere, temperatures should be rising above freezing so icing will not be a problem. By dawn, continued warming should take care of any icing that does occur, and expect a mild Tuesday with rain showers around.

A strong cold front will cross the region at night, setting us up for a windy and colder Wednesday but with dry weather.

Chilly/dry weather will last into Thursday, and a weak system moving in at night will cause some snow showers. This will get out of here by early Friday with another fair but chilly day.

There are some questions for the weekend, and some potential changes to the thinking on the last post. I’m not quite sure how things are going to shake out yet, but some reliable guidance has shifted the track of Saturday’s disturbance further south, possibly increasing the chance that it will be snow. Sunday’s warm-up may also be delayed behind this system if a north or northeast wind sets up, as is shown on the same rather reliable guidance. But with this still many days away, I’ll just put out a low confidence outlook leaning in the direction of this guidance for now.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, accumulating less than 1 inch. A period of rain well after midnight, with some icing possible well inland. Temperature rising into the 30s. Wind shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain showers. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Slight chance of a snow shower late. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 14. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 23. High 35.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 29. High 49.

11:34PM

A few tweaks otherwise no major change.

More of the same is in the offing: little if any snow, mild temperatures with brief cold shots, storm track mainly to the northwest of New England (with storm systems taking this path around Tuesday, late Thursday, and around Saturday). Enough lingering cold air may be around to produce a little light snow/ice in some areas very early Tuesday, and some snow showers Thursday night. There have been a few hints on some guidance of a brief period of steadier snow Thursday night, but not seeing solid evidence this far out that it will turn into a significant event.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Very cold. Low ranging from -5 in the deeper valleys to around 0 in many suburban areas to 5-10 near the coast and in urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valleys. Wind chill below zero at times.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high cloudiness. High 30-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow or freezing rain possible after midnight, changing to light rain before dawn. Low 25-30 early then warming back into the 30s later. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. High 41-46. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Low 25-30. Wind SW 10-15 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Chance of snow or snow showers at night. Low 11. High 37.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 29. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 47.

5:22PM

More of the same is in the offing: little if any snow, mild temperatures with brief cold shots, storm track mainly to the northwest of New England (with storm systems taking this path around Tuesday, late Thursday, and around Saturday). Enough lingering cold air may be around to produce a little light snow/ice in some areas very early Tuesday, and some snow showers Thursday night. Otherwise, no significant winter precipitation is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Very cold. Low ranging from -5 in the deeper valleys to around 0 in many suburban areas to 5-10 near the coast and in urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valleys. Wind chill below zero at times.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow or freezing rain possible after midnight, changing to light rain before dawn. Low 25-30 early then warming back into the 30s later. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. High 41-46. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Low 25-30. Wind SW 10-15 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Chance of rain or snow showers at night.  Low 11. High 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 32. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

2:17AM

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 17-22. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -1 to +4 inland valleys, 5-10 most other areas except 10-15 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind NW under 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing rain early, rain showers later. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 16. High 33.

4:53PM

No major changes to previous blog entry. Just updating for time periods and a few minor tweaks. Second update Sunday morning. Full update Sunday evening.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 7-12. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH. Wind chill around zero, slightly below at times. Patriots/Broncos game-time temperature near 22 at kick off and near 16 by game’s end.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated snow showers. High 17-22. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -1 to +4 inland valleys, 5-10 most other areas except 10-15 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing rain early, rain showers later. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 16. High 33.

4:26PM

This is not the first time we’ve seen this weather pattern, so before you believe anybody that says they have never seen anything like this, that’s only true if they were not born or not paying attention the last time. 🙂 While it’s true it is a rare pattern, it is not unheard of. And this will not be the last time we see it.

For some, the pattern is welcomed. For others, not so much. The reasons are obvious and not really needing to be stated here.

This weather pattern will continue to feature a lack of significant snow, but will contain shots of cold air between milder pushes of weather. The main storm track will continue to be through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada, north of New England, due to the lack of blocking (the pattern that caused us the 6-week barrage of snow last winter), and a ridge of high pressure persisting near the southeastern US.

One such storm is passing northwest of us at this time, and the cold air being pulled in behind it is first sweeping in from the southwest, but as a couple troughs move through tonight, winds will shift more to the west and eventually northwest as temperatures start to fall significantly. A few snow showers and even a snow squall may accompany these wind shifts and falling temperatures.

The weekend (long for some because of MLK Jr. Day Monday) will be a cold one. Earlier this week, I though the coldest day would be the holiday itself, but it now appears this will be on Sunday. For the Patriots/Broncos playoff game in Foxboro Saturday night, it will be a very cold night, along with some wind. As stated before, you’ll want to bundle up big time if you are going to this one! Expect the temperature to be near 22 at kick-off and near 16 by the end of the game, hopefully as the Pats leave the field victorious! Winds out of the northwest may gust over 20 MPH, pushing the wind chill down below 10 at times.

As for the previously advertised disturbance bringing a chance of snow showers for Sunday, I’m going to scale it back but not eliminate it, as there are still solid signs of some energy moving through in the upper levels that day. Snow showers or no snow showers, it will be one heck of a chilly day, barely making it above 20. A slight temperature recovery can be expected for MLK Jr. Day on Monday.

The next storm system sails through the Great Lakes late Tuesday & Wednesday, with similar results to the one just gone by, except probably less overall precipitation. This will be fine-tuned as it is closer to occurring.

And before you ask, “graupel” (see below) is basically rounded tiny little snowballs that fall from the sky. Like sleet or ice pellets, except softer. 🙂

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower of rain, graupel, or snow early. Isolated snow showers and a very slight chance of a brief snow squall before midnight. Low 22-27. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 29-34. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 8-13. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH. Wind chill around zero.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated snow showers. High 17-22. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -1 to +4 inland valleys, 5-10 most other areas except 10-15 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing rain early, rain showers later. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 16. High 33.