DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

Today is the day that the upper low that’s been in our region for days starts its exit, but we’ll still be under its cold pool, which makes the atmosphere unstable. Solar heating triggers the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and two sea breeze boundaries can focus some of the activity in a couple areas. The first of these is the South Coast sea breeze which may try to orient convection in a west-east line south of I-90 by mid to late afternoon, and a smaller version of this in a north-south line can occur near the MA North Shore and NH Seacoast later in the day. Otherwise, look for the popcorn variety showers elsewhere in the region. Note: Any of these showers can grow enough to produce lightning and small hail, hence the inclusion of thunderstorms and frozen ice ball potential in the detailed forecast that appears below. This activity will fade with the setting sun, but with some lingering around with clearer sky in dry air between showers, I’ll have to issue a rainbow watch for this evening! This type of pattern / set-up results in rather picturesque skies if we are not overtaken by too much overcast, so camera people, keep an eye out for that! As far as wildfire smoke goes, the lower level plume has been pushed just to our south but the northern portion of that may get back into the South Coast region with the development of a sea breeze during the day today. Thin upper level smoke may be around Saturday while the surface smoke plume is pushed to the south again in a more northerly air flow. Upper level low pressure exits to the east on Saturday, but we’ll be on the western edge of its cold pool sufficiently enough for solar heating to trigger another round of showers and possible thunder/hail, but this time in isolated form and more likely confined to the I-95 belt eastward and during the hours of 11 a.m. to 5 p.m., before support is lost and any left vanish. This leaves Saturday night and Sunday free of any rainfall threat as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in and moves across the region. Some smoke can return on Sunday from the west northwest at high levels and the southwest at the surface, especially in southern portions of the region, but right now it does not look as thick as what we saw at the peak of the event recently. Sunday’s temperatures will be the warmer of the 2 weekend days, but not “hot”. Heading into early next week, we return to our unsettled weather regime as the next trough of low pressure moves in from the west. Initially, a warm front approaches Monday with clouds and wet weather chances going up. Low pressure development to our south then has to track northward on the eastern side of the approaching upper trough and has the chance to bring a swath of significant rainfall sometime later Monday into a portion of Tuesday along with muggier air than we’ve had to deal with for a while. Although once again, temperatures will trend to below normal so when you hear the term “muggy” or “humid”, don’t automatically assume heat goes with it, because it won’t be this time either.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, with most activity occurring after 2 p.m. Any storms can produce small hail. Highs 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes, but any heavier showers/storms can produce variable, briefly gusty wind.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm midday to mid afternoon, favoring NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, may be some coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at times in the afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog. More humid with dew point temperatures above 60 becoming likely. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH but may becoming variable at times.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Upper level low pressure crosses the region midweek next week with diurnal shower chances and below normal temperatures expected. Upper low exits with more of a westerly air flow and a drier, milder trend late week. Also of importance is that the outlook is for some beneficial rain to visit both major fire areas in Canada next week, lessening smoke coming from those source regions and therefore drastically reducing the chances of smoke both surface and aloft having to be part of the day-to-day forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Overall pattern favors a weak low pressure trough in a more zonal and less blocked pattern with a couple opportunities for showers/thunderstorms, but mainly fair weather and temperatures below to near normal. The summer solstice occurs on June 21.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

Upper level low pressure wobbles around for a couple more days, completing a cyclonic loop moving westward to southwest today into Friday then eastward and starting to move away from the region on Saturday. These 3 days carry shower chances but they differ slightly. Today is the coolest and cloudiest and “most stable” with limited showers and very little chance that any could build to produce thunderstorms. Friday is a more unstable day with scattered mainly afternoon activity capable of producing thunder and small hail, and Saturday this chance continues but coverage reduces to isolated and favoring eastern MA and RI for a portion of the afternoon before support is lost. High pressure builds in for a nice Sunday. Another low pressure trough approaches Monday with a return to unsettled weather at that time, though it may be a slow process with a shower threat holding off until later in the day. We can still see some plumes of both low and high altitude smoke at times over the coming days from Canadian wildfires.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 61-68. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring areas away from the coast. Any storms can produce small hail. Highs 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm midday to mid afternoon, favoring eastern MA and RI. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, may be some coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers later in the day. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

Large scale pattern again dominated by a low pressure trough with unsettled weather at times, especially early and again late in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

Still a tendency for more trough than ridge at upper levels but relaxing a little so that we’re drier overall and temperatures are more seasonable.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

The same old story … upper level low pressure in control. It stays this way until the weekend, when the one over us now finally moves away. Before that, we have a few more unsettled days to go through with shower threats. None of these are “rainy” days, but all contain the chance of rain at some point for at least parts of our region. The upper level low with its center currently to our northeast elongates east-west today then the western lobe begins to drift southward across the region by Thursday and into Friday as the low then reconfigures to more of a symmetrical round shape, centered right across eastern New England and the Gulf of Maine by early Friday, after which it will begin a drift to the east with the last of its effect departing on Saturday. Today’s shower threat comes to northern areas from mid level moisture associated directly with the elongating low, with a swath of wet weather already taking place as I write this in south central and southeastern NH to northeastern MA. Enough solar heating takes place before that to fire up some diurnal showers especially in MA which will move to the southeast, fading later on as the solar fuel diminishes. These will not be widespread for coverage, but can be moderate to briefly heavy where they do occur. You’ll also notice that our thick smoke plume from yesterday is less so as it gets pushed to the south, although it may hang on in CT longer. The plume should then be kept mostly out of the region by the upper low into late week. Another round of diurnal shower development takes place Thursday, and with a little more northeast-southwest orientation of upper low and resultant mid level southwest wind over our area, we may see one or two broken lines of showers and embedded thunderstorms in the region. The threat will be a little higher in southeastern MA tomorrow over today, but they can occur anywhere else in the region as well depending on where the initial development takes place. Another region vulnerable may favor northeastern CT, central MA, and southern NH with tomorrow’s activity, with a late-day fading of activity again. Friday, with the core of the cold air aloft right over us, you’d think that the showers and storms could pop anywhere and everywhere, but at the surface with light winds we may develop a moderate sea breeze which may have a stabilizing influence at least in the coastal plain, keeping shower activity limited or even prevented, with activity focusing more on the inland hilly terrain from southwestern NH through central MA into northeastern CT and northwestern RI. Will monitor this trend on short range guidance. Of diurnal shower/storm development the next 3 days, Friday’s has the greatest chance to produce hail where it occurs. Saturday looks “better” but enough cold air will remain over the region on the western edge of the departing low that we will at least pop some clouds and maybe a few more showers, but these should be limited and may peak quickly around midday. I’ll have to fine-tune that part of the forecast as we get closer to it. By Sunday, that upper low is gone and we’re in a weak ridge of high pressure between it and the next approaching trough, so we get a very nice day. But the next trough may already be spreading high and mid level clouds in by later in the day, so we may not end up with a completely sunny day Sunday.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun southern MA southward early, brighter sun just to the north, and thicker clouds northeastern MA and southern NH with showers into mid morning. Afterward variably cloudy with scattered midday and afternoon showers favoring MA but possible anywhere. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Maybe a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 61-68. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring areas away from the coast. Any storms can produce small hail. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a few midday showers favoring the eastern coastal plain. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine. Increasing clouds later. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, may be some coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Large scale pattern again dominated by a low pressure trough with unsettled weather weighted toward the first half of next week. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Still a tendency for more trough than ridge at upper levels but relaxing a little so that we’re drier overall and temperatures are more seasonable.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

Upper level low pressure continues its reign over our weather, but with a variety of weather dependent on the configuration of the low and associated surface systems. Today, a northwesterly air flow first brings in a significant plume of wildfire smoke (already here as of very early morning) that filters the sun we get, and is even concentrated enough at the surface to be detectable by smell. It also results in a reduction of air quality. The sun, despite a smoke filter, will be enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the unstable atmosphere this afternoon. Tonight, those end and the smoke plume gets pushed away to the south as the wind flow turns more northerly again, and this will be the theme for mid to late week. Spokes of energy around the upper low will still bring shower chances each day Wednesday through Friday. The Wednesday and Thursday activity will be patchy light rain areas and Friday’s will be more like today’s in a more unstable atmosphere, with pop up showers and a few thunderstorms too. Saturday, we will start to lose upper low finally, as it drifts away to the east, leaving us with just some lingering fair-weather clouds and only the slightest chance of a brief shower in isolated locations.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun joined by developing clouds midday onward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with any heavier showers/storms capable of producing hail and briefly gusty wind. Best chance of storms central to southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, variable and gusty around some storms.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible mainly in central MA to northeastern CT and northern RI. Lows 48-55. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Remote chance of a passing shower. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

High pressure brings dry weather to finish off the weekend on June 11. Another stretch of unsettled weather takes place early to middle of next week as another upper low moves in along with a cooling trend again.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

The final days of astronomical spring will hold a similar pattern, governed by a low pressure trough, a few shower chances, and near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

Upper level low pressure continues to dominate our weather and will do so through Friday, though easing its grip as it starts its exit eastward late week. Today will be the wettest day in terms of the amount of hours of rainfall for the region as a whole, with surface low pressure making its closest pass this morning on the westward extent of a cyclonic loop off the Northeast Coast. This brings a swath of rainfall across the region this morning to midday, but it diminishes to just a few isolated showers / sprinkles this afternoon as drier air works in from the north, which is also when we can see some sunbreaks through the cloud cover. It will also be another day of below normal temperatures with a chilly northerly wind, but not quite as “cold” as the weekend was. We warm up a little Tuesday with surface low pressure far enough away and a weaker air flow as well as a little dry air in place to allow for some clearing and therefore additional solar heating, but as another disturbance enters the upper level low over our area from the northwest, accompanied by a surface cold front, there will be the development of showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoon, and these can produce some gusty winds and small hail. It appears the greatest chance for these will take place in western and southern portions of the forecast area but they are possible anywhere. In addition to the shower and storm threat, some of the smoke from a series of wildfires in Quebec will be in the atmosphere, and some at a low enough level to detect by smell and lower the air quality to borderline unhealthy levels. The irregularly shaped upper low and another loop of surface low pressure back to the west will send more substantial cloudiness and cooler air back into the region for midweek along with a continue chance of occasional showers occurring, but will also push some of the smoke out, improving the air quality. While the shower threat continues Friday, it will lessen as low pressure at both the surface and upper levels finally begins to pull away to the east as the blocking pattern relaxes slightly.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with widespread showers eastern areas and occasional showers to the west. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with scattered to isolated showers favoring eastern areas. Highs 57-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower early, favoring eastern areas. Lows 46-53. wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon, most numerous southwestern NH, central MA, eastern CT, and RI. Any showers or storms can produce small hail and briefly gusty wind. Smoke from Canada may reduce visibility and be detectable by smell. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Lows 48-55. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

High pressure briefly controls the weather with fair, milder conditions for the June 10-11 weekend before upper level low pressure returns an unsettled pattern with near to below normal temperatures early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Overall pattern somewhat unsettled and on the cooler side of normal overall with upper level low pressure in control most of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

Upper level low pressure remains in control, bringing us an unsettled and cool weather pattern into the middle of the coming week. Surface low pressure offshore wheels some of its showers into the region, especially eastern sections, today into Monday, and another disturbance enters the trough from the northwest with additional showers Tuesday into midweek.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers NH Seacoast and eastern MA to RI this morning. Cloudy with scattered to numerous showers similar areas this afternoon. Areas of drizzle mainly eastern coastal plain. Highs 53-60, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy morning with showers likely, especially eastern areas. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a possible passing shower. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of shower, especially evening. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

Upper low pressure departs and is replaced by high pressure with fair weather and a warm up toward normal temperatures June 9-11 before another round of unsettled weather and a cool-down as the next trough drops into the region from the northwest later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Similar pattern, may be fair early then additional shower chances follow. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

Our weather will be governed by upper level low pressure this weekend and into next week as well. Within this unsettled and cool stretch there will be variations due to position of upper low and also surface features. The upper low will drift southwestward initially this weekend from the St. Lawrence Valley to just east of New England, then south to southeast a little further east and southeast of the region early to mid week. While we have some drizzle and very light showers around to start today with lingering low level moisture, we’ll have some drier air work in to limit or put an end to any precipitation as the day goes on. But surface low pressure evolving offshore will make a cyclonic loop, close enough to bring occasional showers into the region, favoring the eastern portion, Sunday and Monday, best chance Sunday afternoon to Monday morning. As the system then starts another cyclonic loop further east, we’ll get into a more northwesterly flow by Tuesday and Wednesday, but still carrying shower chances, especially Tuesday with the aid of a new disturbance moving in via Canada. So the summation is unsettled and cool for quite a while…

TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of drizzle and a few light showers. Mostly cloudy afternoon with any breaks of sun more likely well inland. Highs 53-60, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Cloudy afternoon with an increased chance of showers, especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Areas of drizzle mainly eastern coastal plain. Highs 53-60, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy morning with showers likely, especially eastern areas. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a possible passing shower. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of shower, especially evening. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 8-12)

The same upper low brings another shower threat for June 8 before we get a break and a few dry and milder days June 9-11 before the next trough arrives from the northwest with a renewed shower chance to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

Another upper low will dominate the weather for at least a portion of this period with additional unsettled weather at times and below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

One more summery day today before it’s back to New England springtime! While yesterday’s summertime feel was with 100% sun (except the early clouds to the south), today’s will feature more a cloud/sun mix, with the clouds eventually growing to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and then as a strong back door cold front sweeps across the region this evening, a more general area of showers will occur. This will signal a significant temperature drop setting up a much cooler weekend. A northeasterly air flow will keep clouds around much of the time, but enough dry air works in for breaks of sun to develop midday and afternoon Saturday, and off and on on Sunday as well. While this is occurring, a low pressure area evolving offshore will stay far enough away to keep its rainfall mainly offshore – the exception being Cape Cod where some showers likely occur on Sunday. So other than some patchy drizzle near the eastern coastal areas with the northeast wind, expect a mainly dry weekend for much of the region despite the cloudiness and cool weather. Offshore low pressure may edge close enough for bands of showers in more of the region Monday before it feels the influence of a newly formed upper low a little further west, which will keep us unsettled with a shower chance on Tuesday as well, along with continued below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Highs ranging from 70-77 Islands / Cape Cod to 84-91 away from shorelines, warmest in valleys. Wind W up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes. Briefly gusty and stronger wind can occur near any showers and storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing showers north to south early morning. Chance of drizzle early morning eastern coastal locations. Highs 56-63, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Possible showers Cape Cod. Highs 57-64, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible mainly NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Lows 47-54. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)

Upper level low pressure dominates the pattern with a northerly air flow becoming more westerly with time. Opportunities for showers at times, but dry more often. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

The story for the first couple days of June: summer teaser. But this will be like a cruel joke from mother nature. Why? The story of the weekend: Much cooler, limited sun, and while mainly dry there are a couple wet weather chances too. We start out with a friendly ridge of high pressure bringing us fair weather and above normal temperatures today into tomorrow. Later tomorrow ahead of an approaching back-door cold front a few showers and thunderstorms can pop up, and then the front crosses the region at night with a more widespread shower swath, a second that may come through early Saturday as the front settles south and some warm air is still riding up over the rather shallow cool air mass initially. I’m still optimistic that enough dry air works in for partial clearing during midday and afternoon Saturday. But with retrograding upper level low pressure moving into the region and surface low pressure organizing off the coast, we’ll get into an increasing northeast to north air flow through Sunday with more coolness, limited sun, and perhaps some drizzle and showers involved, especially in eastern locations of the WHW forecast area. With a a little luck we will have some intervals of drier air to break the clouds up at times Sunday as well. This looks a little more likely early in the week as the upper level low is over us and the surface low is to the east with a cooler northerly air flow and just the chance of a few passing showers Monday.

TODAY: Early-day low clouds MA South Coast / Cape Cod with patchy fog elsewhere, otherwise sunshine with some additional high altitude smoke. Highs 84-91 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH can still yield to local coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing showers north to south morning. Chance of drizzle early morning eastern coastal locations. Highs 56-63, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then cloudy with showers/drizzle overnight. Areas of fog especially coast. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible. Showers most likely early in the day but isolated showers still possible later. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)

Upper level low pressure dominates the pattern with a northerly air flow becoming more westerly with time. Opportunities for showers at times, but dry more often. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

A blanket of broken stratus clouds along the South Coast to the MA South Shore and more broken to scattered stratus closer to the I-90 belt will erode early to mid morning, revealing a hazy sun. Where there are no clouds present, the hazy sun that was visible from the start of the day will remain so, with the “haze” once again a mix of wildfire smoke near the surface from Nova Scotia (moved in from the east) and aloft from western Canada (having been moving in from the west and north). Today warms up a little over yesterday which still held some ocean-modified air in more noticeable form. This warm up will continue Thursday into Friday as high pressure sinks to the south and delivers more south to west wind across the region. This, of course, is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast which will be coolest those two days. The next thing to figure out is the timing of a strong back-door cold front dropping south southwestward via the Gulf of Maine to cross the region late Friday to early Saturday. Current call is late evening to early overnight (10PM-2AM) window for the front to cross the region. This timing is late for the front to have a direct impact on shower and thunderstorm chances for Friday afternoon, so for now my leaning is to go for just isolated shower and thunderstorm activity from daytime heating and slightly increased humidity on Friday afternoon, with a general band of showers coming through Friday evening to early overnight with the front. Behind the front should come a period of stratus clouds and patchy drizzle, along with a few lingering shower that can develop over the top of the shallow wedge of cool air with some lingering warm air above it, before the atmosphere stabilizes with the northeasterly air flow through the balance of Saturday. Enough dry air should work down from the northeast to at least partially clear the cloud cover for a sun/cloud mix for midday on, but will fine-tune that as it can be a difficult detail to forecast a few days out. This trend continues into Sunday but as this happens we’ll be seeing the arrival of upper level low pressure from the east (retrogression of features as mentioned in previous discussions). This brings in colder air above and despite the drier air working in, there can be enough moisture for solar heating to trigger the development of diurnal fair-weather clouds, so we’ll probably not have a totally sunny Sunday either. We will be rain-free though, and a little less chilly than Saturday but still cooler than normal for early June.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning MA South Shore to South Coast, otherwise smoke-filtered sun. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Additional areas of smoke. Some clouds re-develop mainly south of I-90. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH can still yield to local coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of drizzle favoring eastern locations early in the day. Chance of a few showers favoring the South Coast region in the morning. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts through midday.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)

An upper level trough will dominate the weather pattern. This will bring some episodes of scattered showers but right now thinking no big rain events and definitely no early heat with temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms and no significant heat. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

This penultimate day of May will be a nice one with plenty of sun, but we’ll have to contend with 3 solar filters, the first being some high clouds drifting in from the north, the second being high altitude wildfire smoke from western Canada, and the third will be a plume of lower altitude smoke from a wildlfire in southern Nova Scotia, and this third one may be mixed close enough to ground level to detect by sense of smell as well as reduced surface visibility. Some of each of these may hang around into Wednesday, otherwise another very nice day with a warm-up. That warming trend will continue into late week as high pressure slips to the south, with the feel of summer in place by Thursday and into Friday. Still looking for a cold front to drop through the region north to south with late Friday timing, preceded by a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, and followed by another cool-down to start next weekend.

TODAY: Filtered sun – high clouds and especially smoke at multiple levels. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear though smoke may linger. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Additional smoke around. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and/or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Patchy fog forming. Lows 52-59. Wind variable shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible South Coast early in the day. Highs 62-69, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region with cool temps June 4. Watching for a switch to more unsettled weather with episodes of showers early to middle portion of next week with upper level low pressure in control and a couple disturbances and surface low pressures in the region, with temperatures remaining near to mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms and no significant heat.

Remembering those who served and did not make it home. May their sacrifice not be in vain and may they forever rest in peace.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

On this Memorial Day with many parades / ceremonies scheduled, the weather will be favorable with dry conditions and much cooler air in place than what we saw yesterday. This is due to a back-door cold front that passed by overnight, introducing a northeasterly air flow. If there is one “problem” today, it is that the wind will be rather gusty this morning, which can make it challenging for some of the activities, like carrying/holding a flag, for example. Use caution with any open flames today too, as it has been dry and even post leaf-out our fire danger is still somewhat above normal. High pressure will continue to control our weather through the middle of the coming week, and after today’s cool northeasterly air flow, the high will gradually sink southward and the temperature trend will be up, slightly at first, then more noticeably as we head through midweek into late week. Thursday-Friday bring back the pre-summer heat, and by Friday you’ll finally feel a little up-tick in the humidity after several dry days before it. The only rain threat this week comes later Friday, based on current expecting timing of an approaching cold front. This may have an impact on many area high school graduations that take place on Friday evening, so that will be something to keep an eye on as there will be a shot at showers and thunderstorms with the approach of that front. We’ll still also see some Canadian wildfire smoke in our sky at times this week, giving it a hazy appearance. In addition, a large fire burning in southern Nova Scotia is producing smoke that may be at surface level, clipping part of Cape Cod and Nantucket due to the northeasterly air flow. It now appears that this smoke plume will work its way northwestward into more of the region Tuesday, and may be mixed all the way to the surface, reducing visibility and detectable by smell.

TODAY: Hazy sun – high altitude smoke, also some lower altitude smoke may arrive on parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 65-72, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially through midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine but smoke may expand across the region. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear though smoke may linger. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and/or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)

High pressure brings fair, cooler weather for the June 3-4 weekend. First half of next week sees a gradual increase in shower chances as the pattern changes and low pressure at upper levels arrives from the east in a retrograde.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, but not a very wet pattern, and no major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

We’ve reached the mid point of the 3-day Memorial Day Weekend, and after a splendid Saturday with 100% sun and comfortable air and not too much wind, we turn the temp up a bit today with the help of a southwesterly air flow as high pressure sinks to the south of the region. As you know by now, this wind is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast, which will be cooler. A little bit of Canadian wildfire smoke is sneaking back into the sky again, but today it will only give a slightly hazy look to the sun which otherwise will shine unimpeded once again. Tomorrow will look the same with 100% sunshine through some high altitude smoke, but it won’t feel quite the same. The reason: A back-door cold front slides down via the Gulf of Maine tonight and moves swiftly but quietly through the region and replaces the southwesterly air flow with one from the northeast. A significantly cooler Memorial Day is the result, but it will be dry with no weather problems for parades and ceremonies being held in many cities and towns in the region. Our dry pattern will continue through the middle of the coming week too. High pressure will sink southward and allow a warm-up to take place with pleasantly mild air Tuesday replaced by the feel of summer by Thursday. One thing that will be absent from the warm-up though will be high humidity, as dew points will remain low throughout the period. Despite being beyond our main fire season, the continued dryness will enhance fire danger.

TODAY: Hazy sunshine through high altitude smoke. Highs ranging widely from 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands to 82-89 interior locations with warmest in valleys. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Hazy sunshine through high altitude smoke and also some high clouds closer to the South Coast. Highs 63-70, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, except 73-80 in some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may turn SSE in eastern coastal locations.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

A cold front will drop southward into and across the region during June 2. The timing of this front will determine how warm it gets and how big a threat of a shower or thunderstorm becomes. Will fine-tune these aspects. June 3-4 weekend will be governed by high pressure and will be cooler with a Canadian air mass, but coolest coast with a northeasterly air flow again. High pressure sinks to the south with dry weather and a warm-up June 5-6. These changes take place during a large scale pattern evolution in which the Rex block breaks down and gives way to a weak omega block with retrogression of upper low pressure westward into our area.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be the main driver of our weather. We may see some unsettled weather with the chance of some much-needed rainfall during the early part of the period as a disturbance moves in from the west and another system possibly moves in from the south, but this threat is far enough away to carry much uncertainty. Also, it looks dry again right after that threat. No sign of major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

Down the home stretch of May 2023 we go with a dry stretch to go with it. This is driven by a Rex block with a high pressure ridge over the Northeast and low pressure trough over the Southeast. The position of surface high pressure and resultant predominant wind direction helps determine day to day temperatures in this dry weather pattern which encompasses Memorial Day Weekend in its entirety and the final 2 days of the month of May also. Today’s weather will feature 100% sunshine and a warm-up over yesterday, with the cooler spot being along the beaches where a sea breeze develops. Sunday will be the warmest day region-wide with most areas in the 80s for high temps, but the exception this time will be a cooler South Coast due to a southwesterly wind. A cold front will come through without fanfare Sunday night and set up a broad scale north to northeast flow across the region with a significantly cooler Memorial Day. Some high clouds may fan across our southern sky from low pressure well to the south Sunday and Monday, and a few lower clouds from increased moisture on the southwesterly wind may visit parts of the South Coast during Sunday into Sunday night before they get pushed out by Monday. A Canadian high pressure area will then sink slowly southward Tuesday-Wednesday with a slow warm-up.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

Large scale pattern Rex block breaks down and is replaced by an omega block (trough West Coast, ridge upper Midwest and central Canada, trough Canadian Maritimes). This puts our region into a northwesterly air flow and we see a brief spike in temperature to start June as high pressure at the surface shifts to the south. After this a cold front drops out of Canada bringing a shot at a shower or thunderstorm June 2 and a cool-down for the June 3-4 weekend but with dry weather. Shower threat may return late period as a low pressure trough takes more control and a disturbance moves in, but this is lower confidence since it’s much further out in time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Large scale pattern retrogression is indicated with high pressure moving westward from the central US/Canada into the Rockies while a low pressure trough drifts westward from the Canadian Maritimes into Quebec / Ontario and the US Northeast / Great Lakes. This pattern for our area would be cooler than average and present some chance of shower activity occurring, not necessarily a “rainy” pattern, but a little more unsettled than what we’ve seen.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

This 5 day forecast covers the “extended” Memorial Day Weekend for those using today and/or Tuesday as extra(s), and I can’t find any raindrops to talk about. It’s going to be dry for the stretch for all travel, outdoor activity, and of course the Memorial Day parades and services that take place in many locations. The weather pattern will be dominated by high pressure, with our temperatures each day determined by high position and resultant wind direction. We start with a chilly morning today with high pressure over us after a night of radiational cooling and recover to the 60s today with a cooler coastal sea breeze. The warm-up continues for Saturday and Sunday with 70s for most areas Saturday and 80+ high temps for many for Sunday. But an exception for Sunday will be a cooler South Coast with a southwesterly air flow. A back-door cold front sneaks through the region Sunday night and early Monday and replaces that air flow with a northeast to east one Monday and Tuesday with a cooling trend. I already spoke of no rain, but we’ll also be hard pressed to find much in the way of cloud cover too during these days. A few clouds may skirt southeastern NH and northeastern MA for a brief time today and a few fair-weather clouds can pop up in the blue sky (absent of wildfire smoke) elsewhere today. I think 100% sun is our Saturday. Sunday may see a few lower clouds flirt with the South Coast due to the southwesterly air flow, and it is later Sunday and/or Monday into Tuesday when we could see some Canadian wildfire smoke mixing back into our air aloft. Also some high clouds from low pressure far to our south may fan across the southern sky by Monday and Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy shallow fog in valleys/swamps/bogs. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

High pressure sinks back to the south May 31 / June 1 with fair weather and a warm-up. Cold front from Canada brings a shower or thunderstorm threat on June 2 followed by fair and cooler weather for the June 3-4 weekend based on the current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Similar pattern. Tries to warm up after a cool start – maybe with some unsettled weather, before another Canadian high delivers the cool later in the period.