8:25PM

A stormy night is underway, but the rain part of it will not last long. The heaviest is moving into the Boston area from the southwest as of 8PM and will be gone in about 4 hours. The positives about this are that it is quick-moving, the unfrozen ground allows absorption of the rain, and the lack of a frozen snowpack means less threat of flooding.

The main story with this system will be the wind. Strong south to southwest winds may occur with the heaviest rain especially  south of the Mass Pike. As the storm passes north of the area and moves away Wednesday, strong northwest winds are expected on the back side. Some minor wind damage may occur, and power outages, though not widespread, are not out of the question. Dry weather will be back for Wednesday, with any snow showers hanging out in the Mountains far west and north of Boston as colder air moves in. Temperatures will fall during the day.

Expected a cold and dry Thursday as high pressure dominates.

By Friday, warmer air will try to move back in, and riding up over the cold air it will generate some snow and rain showers in the region. By late in the day and at night, a stronger impulse is expected to cross the region and may produce a general period of mixed precipitation to snow, with just enough cold air in place. By later Saturday, New Year’s Eve, mostly dry weather is expected but a gusty breeze and chilly air is likely. It will not be frigid, however, as some New Year’s Eves have been around these parts.

A milder day is expected for the first day of 2012.

Longer range models are divergent in their forecasts for what goes on during the first week of 2012, with one showing weak weather systems and no major storms, while the other shows a major storm threat for the East Coast. In the interest of the New Year’s weekend upcoming, and many other things going on during the next few days for holiday week traveling, I’m going to just leave next week alone for now and look at it later.

On to the details…

TONIGHT:  Rain, moderate to heavy at times, with a chance of thunder, ending from southwest to northeast by 2AM, with partial clearing following. Temperature rising to around 50. Wind S shifting to SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially south of Boston.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Temperature falling through the 40s into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH, shifting to NW by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill falling below 10 at times.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Steadier mix or snow at night. Low 18. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Snow/mix early. PM snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S HOLIDAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. PM snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 31.

The server host for Woods Hill Weather is having some problems today. You may lose access to this blog from time to time. Hopefully the problem will be fixed soon!

7:36AM

Full discussion and new forecast later today.

TUESDAY: Clouding up. Periods of rain by late afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain early, then rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms through late evening, followed by scattered rain showers changing to snow showers from west to east overnight. Temperature rising into the 50s early then dropping to a low 30-35 by dawn. Wind SE 10-20 MPH shifting to SW with gusts up to 30 MPH in the evening, then shifting to W at similar speeds later at night.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 36.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

6:46PM (editted at 7AM) to remove the overnight info.

Down the home stretch for 2011…

I hope all of you celebrating Christmas had a wonderful holiday!

Monday, we’ll see fair but windy and chilly weather as the energy moving offshore ignites an ocean storm. This storm will be too far out to threaten us with any precipitation. This storm will also race off to the northeast and be gone rather quickly, but this will make way for another storm approaching from the southwest on Tuesday. This rather strong package of energy is expected to cross the region in the form of deepening low pressure, cutting across southern and central New England, the center passing west of  Boston Tuesday night. This will bring a healthy period of rain starting during the day Tuesday and as we get into the warm sector in greater Boston we will see rain showers and even a chance of thunderstorms at night. As the low departs in the early morning hours of Wednesday, cold air will flow back into the region, and snow showers may whiten the ground in some locations. We’ll have to watch for a quick freeze-up of some wet surfaces as well. During the daylight hours of Wednesday, other than a few isolated snow showers, expect a dry but very windy day.

Thursday will be an in-between-systems day, with fair weather chilly air, and a diminishing wind. The last 2 days of 2011 (Friday & Saturday) will see the next low pressure system affecting the region. This one looks weaker. Its associated warm front may produce some light snow or mix on Friday, and as it gets beyond the region and starts to intensify heading toward the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, expect gusty winds and a chance of snow showers.

A look ahead to New Year’s Day (Sunday) reveals a tranquil start to 2012.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 30-35 early then rising back toward 40 overnight. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, becoming heavy at times during the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain early, then rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms through late evening, followed by scattered rain showers changing to snow showers from west to east overnight. Temperature rising into the 50s early then dropping to a low 30-35 by dawn. Wind SE 10-20 MPH shifting to SW with gusts up to 30 MPH in the evening, then shifting to W at similar speeds later at night.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 36.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

10:57AM

Merry Christmas everybody celebrating this wonderful holiday!

Snow showers moved in a little early, forcing me to make a slight forecast adjustment. The ground has even been covered in some locations from around the Lakes Region of NH and even near Providence RI! A very light dusting here in Woburn as flakes have been drifting down since around 9AM.  Below is an updated forecast but very little change from the previous. A full discussion of the week ahead and updated forecast will appear later today or tonight.

Thanks to all of you for  supporting Woods Hill Weather, which marks its ONE YEAR anniversary tomorrow!!!

Boston Area Forecast Update…

CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic snow showers, may mix with rain southeast of Boston. High 35-40. Wind NW-SW 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with some minor accumulation. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 34-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms later in the day and at night, may change to snow before ending overnight. Low 33. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

2:40AM

Merry  Christmas!

It looks like 2011 won’t be the year for a White Christmas for most of the region, but still a few areas may get coated white with a little snow today and a few more tomorrow, thanks to some ocean-effect snow showers on the South Shore today and more widespread snow showers later tomorrow as a potent disturbance moves in from the west northwest. It’ll sure feel like late December too, with temperatures actually running below normal today and barely recovering back toward normal Christmas. What else is coming up?

– Sunday’s disturbance ignites an ocean storm just too far east to do much on Monday.

– A Tuesday warm-up is followed by a fast-moving storm from the southwest, and with warmer air in place mostly rain will fall, but snow may sneak in at the end as cold air comes back.

– Quiet weather for midweek.

– A disturbance coming along a dominant northern jet stream will bring a chance of snow for the last 2 days of 2011. It’s too early to determine if anything significant will take place.

Boston Area Forecast…

CHRISTMAS EVE DAY: Mostly sunny except bands of ocean-effect clouds and snow showers on the South Shore with minor accumulation from near Marshfield southward. High 29-34. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind N-NW 5-10 MPH.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic snow showers, may mix with rain southeast of Boston. High 35-40. Wind NW-SW 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with some minor accumulation. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 34-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms later in the day and at night, may change to snow before ending overnight. Low 33. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

10:30PM

It’s like the atmosphere is trying to snow, but just can’t seem to do so in a meaningful way. We’ll likely have a few more so-close-yet-so-far episodes over the next few days…

Friday… Low pressure will move rapidly east northeastward just south of New England but with marginal temperatures, much of the Boston area will see little if any in the way of snow accumulation. In fact, the bulk of the precipitation may fall as rain in the city, before mixing with and possibly changing to snow toward the end of the precipitation event later in the morning.

Friday night / Saturday… Colder air drains in, and winds turn north to northeast on the east side of a high pressure area. Cold enough air will be in place to cause some ocean-effect snow showers. How far these penetrate inland depends on the trajectory of the wind. Expect at least the coastal areas from Boston to the South Shore to see some snow shower activity Friday night and Saturday morning. Only minor accumulations are expected in some locations.

Saturday night (Christmas Eve)… Santa will find a mostly clear sky and cold temperatures as he travels through the area.

Sunday (Christmas Day)… A strong disturbance in the upper levels approaches from the northwest with clouds moving in and a chance of snow showers. Later in the day and at night this energy will jump to a low pressure area developing offshore. Current indications are that this system will be too far out and too fast to throw any meaningful snow back into the region. We should keep an eye on it, however, as just 24 hours ago, computer models were not showing much of anything, a clear sign they continue to have problems with the pattern we are in.

Next week… Tranquil late December weather is expected with no major cold or storms.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Rain and areas of fog developing. Temperature cooling to 35-40. Wind shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain mixing with and possibly changing to snow northwest to southeast with minor accumulation of snow especially outside Route 95. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny in the afternoon. Temperature dropping to near 32 in the morning then recovering to a high about 40 in the afternoon. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, especially near the coast from Boston to the South Shore with minor accumulation possible. Low 20-25. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, especially in the morning and especially from Boston through the South Shore with additional minor accumulation. High 29-34. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind N-NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. High 34-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 26. High 36.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 40.

12:22AM

As of this writing, it’s raining hard and thundering just around midnight at December 21 turns to December 22 and the Winter Solstice takes place (12:30AM). Not very common…

All of the action is associated with a cold front pushing into an unseasonably mild and rather humid (for December) air mass. Things will quiet down overnight, and a fair and still mild day is expected Thursday.

Colder air will filter in from the north Thursday night as a wave of low pressure moves in from the southwest. Precipitation is expected, probably starting as rain then turning to snow in the Boston area, continuing into Friday morning, with minor accumulation. This will move out by midday. A disturbance coming through on the back end of this wave will create scattered snow showers Friday night into the daylight hours of Christmas Eve (Saturday).  A second surge of energy may be responsible for a few additional light snow showers Saturday night and part of Christmas morning. The storm threat for Christmas Day is pretty much gone. The computers had some trouble with this feature, bringing it too far north initially. We are entering a period of weather where a flatter-flow dominated by the northern jet stream means drier weather with just some temperature swings during the final week of 2011, though some southern stream moisture may try to get involved around the middle of the week for a brief time.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Thunderstorms ending west to east early followed by partial clearing. Temperature in the 50s early, cooling into the 40s later. Wind W up to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain arriving late, changing to snow from NW to SE. Low 30-35. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow ending in the morning, accumulation of 1 inch or less in most areas, with a few isolated amounts over 1 inch possible north and west of Boston. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 25-30. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. High 35-40. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 20-25. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers through mid morning. High 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

2:53AM

First of all, Happy Chanukah to those who celebrate it!

After looking overall the available data and trying to solve the puzzle of what to believe and what not to believe, I’ve come up with a best-guess for the weather through Christmas Day. Just going to go out 5 days on today’s blog, and tackle next week in upcoming blog posts.

Low pressure cuts NW of New England today with its associated warm front lifting northward through the Boston area this morning, producing no more than a brief period of very light snow or sleet with no accumulation. The trailing cold front will set off rain showers this afternoon into tonight, but it is not much of a cold front as it will remain fairly mild Thursday, the Winter Solstice, with fair weather. A second boundary will quietly cross the region Thursday evening, introducing colder air from the north. This will set the stage for a mix of precipitation turning to snow (especially NW of Boston) Friday morning, as a wave of low pressure moves rapidly east northeastward just south of New England. This will not be a major system. Colder air will continue to drain into the region behind this departing feature, and a strong disturbance in the upper atmosphere coming along on Saturday (Christmas Eve) may set off additional snow showers. Sunday (Christmas Day) will see another wave of low pressure passing south of New England. The air should be cold enough to support some snow, assuming precipitation makes it far enough north. Influence of the ocean means that mix/rain may be involved mainly south of Boston. This system is still far enough away that tweaking of the forecast will likely be required.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. A brief period of very light snow/sleet may occur mainly pre-dawn. Developing rain showers this afternoon. High 45-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 40-45. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. A mix of rain and snow possible after midnight. Low 35-40. Wind shifting to N and decreasing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with mix to snow north and west of Boston, mix and rain to the south, during the morning hours, with snow accumulation of up to a few inches possible, especially in areas that see mostly snow. Partial clearing and some sun in the afternoon. Temperature falling to 30-35 in the morning then returning to 35-40 in the afternoon. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers developing. Low 25-30.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers, especially in the morning. High 35-40.

SATURDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy. Low 22-27.

SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow north of Boston, rain/mix/snow to the south. High 33-38.

EDITTED 10AM Tuesday … full update this evening!

Tuesday… High pressure passes north of New England resulting in a dry and chilly day.

Wednesday… Low pressure cuts west of New England. Its warm front may bring brief very light frozen precipitation in the morning but the probability is not very high. We enter the warm sector in the afternoon with rain showers ahead of a cold front.

Thursday… With a cold front from the system just gone-by moving just south of the region it will dry out but a secondary front may result in a few isolated rain showers.

Friday… Wave of low pressure passing just south of the region in the morning, with marginally cold enough air in place for mixed precipitation ending as snow, then a possible snow shower later as a reinforcing cold front moves through.

Saturday / Christmas Eve… Cold high pressure north of the region, a few ocean-effect snow showers possible in an otherwise dry day, but low pressure forms south and approaches with an area of snow moving in from the south at night.

Sunday / Christmas Day…It’s still way out, but there is the potential for stormy weather, with at least mixed precipitation and possibly snow (especially inland). Many days remain to fine-tune this possibility.

Detailed forecast…

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30 early then warming back into the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. A slight chance of very light snow/mix during the morning hours. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE around 10 MPH in the morning, SW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with early mix/snow then partly cloudy with late snow showers. Low 33. High 42.

SATURDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers during the day. Steadier snow/mix possible at night.  Low 23. High 36.

SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 28. High 37.

10:06AM

Cold weekend, especially tomorrow. But already feeling cold today in comparison to many recent days in the remarkably warm pattern that has persisted for quite some time.

Though we are not diving into a consistently cold pattern, we are no longer in the persistent warmth, and even though some additional mild days are in the near future, there will be plenty of seasonable to colder-than-normal days as well.

The upcoming pattern features several weather events of mostly minor nature: 1) An ocean-effect snow event later today through early Sunday that may whiten the coastal areas of MA and even give up to a few inches of snow to parts of southeastern MA and Cape Cod. 2) A cold front passing through Monday night with rain/snow showers but probably no snow accumulation. 3) A midweek storm that odds favor mostly rain for the Boston area. 4) A late week storm in which the jury is still out regarding rain vs. snow. As we get to Christmas weekend there may be some combo of disturbance with cold air for at least some snow showers to be possible. So since a mild Monday will melt any snow that falls in coastal New England this weekend, the last chances for any kind of white Christmas for the Boston area and most of southern New England come between Friday and Christmas Day itself.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Bands of snow showers (may initially mix with rain) developing near the coast and especially south of Boston during the afternoon. High near 40 briefly. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with periods of snow showers near the coast, most numerous South Shore with up to 1 or 2 inches possible (Cape Cod may see 3 or 4 inches). Partly cloudy inland. Low 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH gusts to 20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 27-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35-40. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain. Low 31. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 42.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Mix to snow. Low 32. High 38.

SNEAK PEEK: Chance of snow showers with temperatures near to slightly below normal over Christmas Weekend (Saturday December 24 & Sunday December 25).

3:03AM

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 44-49 before noon then cooling back through the 40s later. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH, diminishing by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower. Clear overnight. Low 24-29. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sunshine and patchy clouds. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible after midnight, especially near the coast. Low 22-27. Wind N-NE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers especially near the coast and especially in the morning. High 33-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 28. High 41.

TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Low 24. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snow or rain possible. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 38.

3:30AM

No big changes from last discussion. Warm front moves through today preceded by very light precipitation, mainly rain. Cold front moves through tonight preceded by rain showers. Secondary front passes Friday with gusty winds and a colder trend. High pressure brings a cold/dry Saturday. Cold air lingers Sunday but a low pressure trough means that snow showers are possible, especially closer to the coast. Low pressure sails north of New England Monday with slightly milder air but a gusty breeze and a few rain or snow showers possible.

Tricky part of forecast comes after this, when trying to determine the timing of low pressure coming out of the southwestern USA, and its exact track, and whether we get just rain, a mix of rain and snow, or more snow than rain, during the Tuesday-Thursday time period. Vague wording will be used for now, to depict a storm threat, with days left to work out detail. Leaning toward a slower solution, that is, the storm arriving on Wednesday, and having at least some chance of snow being involved with it for parts of the region. Additional storminess may occur just prior to Christmas as well, so chances of at least some of the region seeing a white Christmas remain in place at this time.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. A slight risk of pre-dawn very light rain/snow, a few periods of light rain possible during the morning with a tiny bit of freezing rain possible far NW of Boston (outside 495), then a chance of rain showers this afternoon. Late-day high 46-51. Wind light SE shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, followed by a clearing sky. Low 38-43. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 44-49 before noon then cooling back through the 40s later. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, diminishing by the end of the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower. Clear overnight. Low 24-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sunshine and patchy clouds. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind N-NE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. High 33-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 28. High 41.

TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Low 24. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snow or rain possible. Low 30. High 40.

2:31AM

The next 3 days will feature typical changing New England weather. High pressure to the north will send a NE wind and lots of clouds into the region today. Low pressure passing northwest of New England Thursday and early Friday will bring clouds and light precipitation ahead of its warm front early Thursday (mostly rain but potentially some light sleet/freezing rain in higher elevatuions NW of  Boston), and rain showers along its cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, then a gusty wind and drier weather Friday.

The weekend will be mostly dry and colder. A weak trough in the vicinity may produce a few snow showers Sunday but it does not look like an important event at this time.

Peek into next week: I’m in disagreement with the government’s temperature forecast, as I think we will see more seasonable temperatures as the northern (polar) jet stream dominates with frequent shots of chilly air. One storm may lift out of the south and reach this area by midweek, and depending on temperature, could be the last shot at snow before Christmas.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated very light rain showers. High 40-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy.  Periods of light rain in the morning possibly starting as a little sleet or freezing rain in higher elevations well NW of  Boston. Scattered rain showers in the afternoon. High 44-49. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Low 32-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 44-49 by noon then cooling through the 40s after. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing gradually.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of snow showers. Low 19. High 36.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers late. Low 21. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

2:45AM

The very slow pattern change remains in progress, despite claims to the contrary. We’re much drier, and not as warm relative to normal, and this will continue to be the case for the coming days as well. This is in response to a split flow pattern in which the northern (polar) jet stream is dominating our weather with minor precipitation events and mostly just temperature changes while the southern (subtropical) jet stream is remaining to the south and keeping most storminess away from the area.

A weak cold front will drop southward across New England today with just some clouds associated with it. High pressure to the north will becoming dominant Wednesday with slightly cooler weather than today. We’re still not looking at any major cold outbreaks, but also gone are the big warm-ups. The next warming trend will be short-lived on Thursday as a warm front associated with a storm well northwest of us moves through. Ahead of this there is a very slight chance of some light rain (or mix if it comes in earlier enough). But most of the precipitation will come with a trailing cold front, and it will be in the form of scattered rain showers Thursday afternoon and evening. No widespread or heavy rain is expected. Friday will bring windy, chilly weather behind the cold front. The front will settle south of  New England over the weekend when a few disturbances may travel along it. At this time, it looks like any precipitation associated with these would remain south of New England, and we’ll just see chilly and dry weather.

A peek into next week reveals we will be in a battle zone between colder air to the north and lingering warmth to the south thanks to high pressure trying to hold on over the southeastern US. This should send at least 1 or 2 chances for precipitation our way in the days ahead of Christmas. It’s too early to call rain vs. snow on any of these potential threats, something to be fine-tuned in the days ahead.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunshine dominating much of the time but some clouds from the north later. High 43-48. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N late.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy – some coastal clouds from time to time. High 39-44. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 31-36. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of very light rain (mix well NW of Boston) during the morning. Scattered rain showers during the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 26. High 40.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 42.