3:38PM

A chilly and breezy Monday is winding down and now it’s time to talk about what it upcoming for the next 7 days,  including the Presidents Day Weekend (February 18-20).

For the model-followers, I am basing this forecast largely on the ECMWF today. The GFS looks “confused” starting at about day 3.

A milder southwesterly flow will become established on Tuesday then becoming very weak on Wednesday as a weak disturbance passes over and just south of southern New England. This system will not be worth more than a few very light snow or rain showers early Wednesday. High pressure north of the region on Thursday should provide enough dry air for at least some sun as another low pressure area organizes to the southwest of New England. This system will send a primary low pressure area into the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday which will redevelop just south of New England Friday, but there will be too much warm air in place for any snow in southern New England (though northern New England, especially the mountains of NH and a good  portion of central and northern Maine may see some significant snow from the low pressure system). The low should be lifting away by early Saturday as drier and cooler air starts to flow into New England behind it, setting us up for a largely dry and somewhat chilly (but not too cold) Presidents Day Weekend. A low pressure area over the southeastern US at that time should sail out to sea well south of New England.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 19-24. Wind W diminishing to around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. High 41-46. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Low 31-36. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow or rain showers in the morning. High 41-46. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Low 28. High 42.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 44.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 38.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 36.

4:16PM

The quiet winter of 2011-2012 goes on. We’re looking at another rather benign week with no major cold and and no major storms. The cold blast of Sunday (which wasn’t even really that severe anyway) lingers early Monday in the form of a very cold morning, but temperatures will recover to freezing or a little above during the course of the day. Mild temperatures dominate the rest of the week with high temperatures at or over 40 pretty much daily. The only weather systems to look at will be a weak frontal system moving through late Tuesday and a weak to moderate low pressure area expected around Friday. It should be warm enough with both of these systems so any precipitation will likely be in the form of rain in the Boston area.

Forecast for the next 7 days…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 10-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 41-46. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 34. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 41.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

11:16AM

Updated Boston Area Forecast … Full discussion and forecast for the week ahead this evening.

TODAY: Mostly sunny into mid afternoon then becoming partly sunny by late afternoon. High 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. Wind chill below 20.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy early then becoming partly to mostly clear overnight. Low 10-15. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind W 10-15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 44.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 41.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain. Low 32. High 43.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 40.

4:07PM

A brief shot of modified Arctic air will come in tonight and last through early Monday. Now by normal standards, this air mass is not that extreme, but it will feel pretty cold in comparison to many of our days this winter. But as has been typical, it will not last, as the mild pattern will return Tuesday and beyond.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 14-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. High 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 8-13. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain or snow. Low 28. High 41.

8:40AM

Disorganized storm sideswiping MA may produce an inch or 2 of snow over interior SE MA and very little in the remainder of the Boston area.

Shot of cold air follows for tonight (watch for flash freeze on untreated surfaces due to melting snow before the cold air arrives) and Sunday, followed by moderating temperatures Monday.

Mild pattern returns  Tuesday into midweek!

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow except a few moderate bands of snow mainly SE of Boston. Accumulation less than an inch most areas, up to 1 or possibly 2 inches parts of interior SE MA. High 33-38. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low 10-15. Wind NW 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain or snow showers. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

4:37PM original

11:35PM update

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. A few periods of rain mainly southeastern Massachusetts. Low 33-38. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Mix develops Boston southeastward and light snow northwest, then snow all areas in the afternoon, but mostly on the light side, except a few periods of moderate snow possible interior southeastern Massachusetts.. Snow accumulation of 1 inch or less especially on unpaved surfaces except locally 2+ inches in parts of interior southeastern Massachusetts. Temperature steady 33-38. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N and increasing  to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Flash freeze possible on untreated surfaces. Low 10-15. Wind NW 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain or snow showers. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

2:34AM

High pressure holds on for one more day today with fair and mild weather. A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, but rather slowly, as a storm system organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This appears to be a complex development with some questions on the details yet to be answered, but it appears that the bulk of the heaviest precipitation will remain over water south and east of New England as the eventual storm center passes well southeast of Cape Cod during Saturday and Saturday night. The slowness of the cold front will allow enough mild air for precipitation to start as rain from Boston south on Saturday morning to around noon – limiting accumulation of snow there as it will take longer for the cold air to arrive. To the north and west of Boston, where cold air will be in place sooner, lighter precipitation is expected, therefore snow totals will be held down there as well. What this means is that overall accumulations should be mostly minor and low impact, falling during the daylight hours. A few heavier amounts favoring higher elevations southwest of Boston may occur with a few enhanced bands of snow after the cold air arrives. Once the storm is beyond the region, a few snow showers may linger Saturday evening as much colder air finally filters in, setting the Boston area up for a fair, windy, and very cold day Sunday. A frigid start Monday will be followed by a temperature recovery in the afternoon. A return to above normal temperatures is expected by Tuesday, which will also carry the next chance of precipitation – a system that looks minor at this point.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Clouds at dawn & sunset but sun dominating for much of the day. High 46-51. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY  NIGHT: Clouding over. Low 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops Boston southeastward and light mix to snow northwest, then snow all areas in the afternoon, but mostly on the light side, except a few periods of moderate snow possible over higher elevations southwest of Boston. Snow accumulation a general inch or 2, locally 3 or 4 inches possible in the higher elevations southwest of Boston. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N and increasing  to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 10-15. Wind NW 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain or snow showers. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 25. High 40.

2:37AM

As has been the case so many times this winter so far, another period of very mild weather will take place today through Friday. An Arctic cold front will pass through the region Saturday as a storm develops off the Mid Atlantic Coast. At this time I’m going to continue to lean toward the drier forecast, though I will introduce a chance of rain showers changing to snow showers for a time on Saturday as the leading edge of cold arrives. Sunday and early Monday should be the coldest of a short-lived blast of Arctic air. Sunday night will likely turn out to be the coldest night of the winter season so far in many areas. However, as has also been the case, mild air will be set to return very quickly. We’ll already feel moderation just getting underway by Monday afternoon, and temperatures will be back to their milder than normal comfort zone by Tuesday of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Clouds depart early, turning sunny. High 42-47. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 32-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny most of the day, clouds late. High 46-51. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. High 40-45 in the morning then cooling into the 30s afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 44.

10:21PM

A cold front has settled southward across New England and will sit just south of New England while a wave of low pressure moves along it later Wednesday. This will spread lots of clouds across southern New England but other than a few flakes of snow across the South Coast, dry weather will prevail. High pressure slides overhead Thursday then offshore Friday with dry weather and a milder trend. A cold front will cross the region Saturday and a brief shot of cold air will follow for Sunday and Monday. At this point I expect the front to come through dry as energy jumps from the mountains to offshore and forms a storm system over the ocean. Cold air will flow in Sunday through early Monday, but energy coming around the base of a strong circulation in eastern Canada will probably swing too far south then east of New England to form any storms close enough to produce snow in the Boston area, so despite a turn to a more midwinter feel, I expect it to remain dry. Beyond this cold shot, it already looks like milder weather will be back by the middle of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 15-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 33-38. Wind N around 10 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 37-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 31.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 42.

10:46PM

After a very mild and sunny Monday, cooler weather is in store over the next few days, and colder weather by the weekend, but the weather pattern will remain generally quiet. Even though computer forecasts are indicating chances of snow or snow showers for the weekend, I’m going to lean dry, thinking that these chances will disappear off the model runs in the next few days.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from near 20 inland valleys to near 30 coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind NW 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny – best chance of the most sun north of Boston, less sun to the south. High 35-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 17. High 39.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 43.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 11. High 33.

2:37AM

The signs are there, Alaska warming, Europe cold and snowy, MJO drifting toward phase 8 (trust me, non-met’s, you may not know what the MJO is but you want to see this if you are rooting for cold/snow here).

I have been a bit concerned about a potential snow event later next week. Also, with the “new” want-to-be regime fighting with the stubborn same-old-pattern, we continue to see models having difficulty predicting the medium range.

Taking all this into account, and adding on a hunch I have, I’ve decided to back off on the snow threat for late next week and also back off on any potential pattern change for the next 7 to 10 days, and possibly a little beyond that.

I’m going to stick with the more-of-the-same overall mild and now drier than normal pattern with periods of colder weather that don’t have the ability to sustain themselves. I still need more solid evidence before I start jumping on the big pattern change bandwagon.

So, sparing the day-to-day detail of weather systems, a good summary will be that we’ll see minor systems, changeable temperatures, and limited precipitation during the week ahead.

Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 47-52. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 23. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 36.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

3:52PM

The signs are there, Alaska warming, Europe cold and snowy, MJO drifting toward phase 8 (trust me, non-met’s, you may not know what the MJO is but you want to see this if you are rooting for cold/snow here).

I have been a bit concerned about a potential snow event later next week. Also, with the “new” want-to-be regime fighting with the stubborn same-old-pattern, we continue to see models having difficulty predicting the medium range.

Taking all this into account, and adding on a hunch I have, I’ve decided to back off on the snow threat for late next week and also back off on any potential pattern change for the next 7 to 10 days, and possibly a little beyond that.

I’m going to stick with the more-of-the-same overall mild and now drier than normal pattern with periods of colder weather that don’t have the ability to sustain themselves. I still need more solid evidence before I start jumping on the big pattern change bandwagon.

So, sparing the day-to-day detail of weather systems, a good summary will be that we’ll see minor systems, changeable temperatures, and limited precipitation during the week ahead.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, then clearing late. High 46-51. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light snow. Low 22. High 36.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 39.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 26. High 43.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 35.

3:22PM

Just updating the Boston Area Forecast on this post. Nothing new to add to the discussion at this time. Full discussion coming on tomorrow’s update.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 15-20.  Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 39.

FRIDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Low 22. High 37.

SATURDAY: Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

4:27PM

High pressure will control the weather much of the time this weekend and at least during the first half of next week. Only a few weak disturbances and frontal systems will cross the region but they will be good for periods of clouds rather than any significant precipitation.

The only significant change in the forecast that I can see through the next 5 days are to bring a cold front in a little more quickly Monday night or early Tuesday of next week, keeping the warm-up a little shorter-lived and bringing a return to seasonable cold a little faster than I indicated yesterday.

Looking way out, I’m feeling the need to mention that there are a few hints of potential storminess at the very end of next week, but the way this winter has gone, not going to hold my breath.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clouds advance west to east early then depart before dawn. Low 20-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low 17-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing to near calm.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny early then mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind NNW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 46.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 40 (falling temps PM).

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 40.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 22. High 36.

10:40PM

A weak low pressure area is passing well south of New England but a light air flow off the ocean has caused a few very light snow showers to be around during the day and evening. Drier air working down from the north will clear things out by early Friday morning. Expect chilly but quiet weather through the weekend, with the only other threat of precipitation being some snow showers Sunday morning as a disturbance passes by. Another warm-up is expected early next week with continued mainly dry weather.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated very light snow showers. Low 23-28. Wind NE-N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 33-38. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.