2:10AM
Well, here comes the storm. And though I certainly don’t mean to downplay the potential, I’m also not going to overdo the trumpet blasts, because that leads to ringing ears. So instead of launching into all kinds of what-ifs, I’ll summarize the main aspects of the storm and update the forecast, expanded a bit to include most of MA and southern NH.
Time frame: Starts by mid to late afternoon Saturday, ends by mid morning Sunday.
Coastal flooding: Most likely at the time of Sunday morning’s high tide, about 2AM. Flooding will be minor to moderate. No major flood damage is expected.
Wind: Starts out east to northeast increasing to 15-25 MPH then increases to 25-35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH, especially in coastal areas and higher elevations. Wind eventually shifts to north during Saturday night, and northwest Sunday.
Precipitation: Starts as mix to snow Berkshires, rain in Connecticut Valley, rain mixed with snow at times Worcester Hills, rain over the balance of eastern MA. The change to snow takes place by early Saturday evening across most areas outside of Route 495, but may take longer, possibly as late as 10PM, closer to the coast. This is a highly uncertain part of the storm and may depend on the placement of a boundary that sets up in these storms, known as a coastal front, where winds on the eastern side are from the east or northeast, and winds to the west of the boundary are from the north. This will make a major difference in precipitation type, and snow accumulation. We’ll just have to watch this feature during the storm’s evolution. I’ve observed a feature like this sit in place and cause one area to have slushy minor snow accumulation while just 2 miles away several inches of solid snow have accumulated. The gradient of snow accumulation may be very sharp in this storm. The fact that the ocean water temperature just offshore is about 55 degrees is going to have a significant influence in how rain vs. snow plays out, and why I think many amounts in the media may be overdone.
Snow accumulation: Slushy patches southeast of Boston, around 1 inch, possibly up to 2, right around the city, 1 to 4 inches from the North Shore westward to between 95 and 495, 4 to 8 inches west of there with pockets of 8 to 12 inches in the highest elevations of Worcester County, the mountains of southwestern NH, and the eastern slopes of the Berkshires of MA, with an area of 3 to 7 inches in the Connecticut Valley. *** A shift of 10 or 20 miles in the storm track will make a significant difference in amounts. ***
Power outages: The combination of heavy snow accumulating on trees that still have leaves, especially inland, will lead to tree damage and some power outages. Some power lines themselves may fail due to the weight of heavy, wet snow. Closer to the coast, strong wind gusts, not so much snow, will result in scattered power outages due to broken tree limbs. I don’t expect this to be widespread.
Forecast Details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain developing south to north mid through late afternoon. High 40-45. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain and snow inland changing to snow. Rain and snow closer to the coast should change to snow eventually. Lightning and thunder possible. Low 30-35. Wind NE 15-25 MPH increasing to 25-35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH, especially coastal areas and higher elevations. SEE ABOVE for snow accumulations.
SUNDAY: Snow/mix ending by mid morning followed by clearing. High 42-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT – HALLOWEEN: Mostly clear. Evening temperature cooling through the 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 60.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers. Low 47. High 64.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 54.