9:56PM

What Is: Decent weather Thursday through Saturday as narrow high pressure dominates. Not cloud-free the entire time, but pleasant.

What May Be: The weather from later Sunday through the final 3 days of October will be determined by the eventual track of Hurricane Sandy, her evolution toward a post tropical cyclone, and her interaction with a blocked jet stream pattern over North America and the North Atlantic. Instead of getting into grand detail at this stage, it is fair to say that most guidance is now in agreement that something is going to happen. The details are still yet to be worked out, but there is a decent chance of a large coastal storm impacting the region with wind and rain. The exact storm track and the extent of impact remain to be seen. Stay tuned…

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 58.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Possible rain/wind. Low 51. High 58.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Possible rain/wind. Low 52. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 47. High 55.

4:40PM

It’s quietly continuing drier than normal, with long term rainfall deficits of 3 inches or more, and no significant rain in sight for southern New England.

A frontal system sitting southwest of the region is acting as an avenue for clouds, which have been fanning across the sky, especially over southern MA and RI, during Tuesday. These clouds will hang in for tonight with only a slight chance a touch of light rain goes across RI and far southern MA, but as we get into Wednesday, dry air wins out again and sunshine increases in all areas, continuing Thursday and Friday along with a moderating temperature trend as high pressure dominates.

The weekend should feature more sun then clouds Saturday and more clouds than sun Sunday as an early call, with mild air Saturday only cooling slightly on Sunday. We will be between a frontal system to the west, which will approach later Sunday, and forecast Hurricane Sandy in the western Atlantic. The track of Sandy and any possible interaction with the jet stream and US East Coast is still highly uncertain. The only reflection of this possibility will be in a forecast shower threat at the end of the period. Don’t read too much into it at this time, as there is plenty of time to work out what will happen early next week.

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds dominate, thickest south and west of Boston, with only a slight chance of brief light rain in southern MA and RI. Lows 40-45 to the north, 44-49 to the south. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind light variable to NE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-48 but as low as 40 in a few inland valleys. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 67.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 50. High 62.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 59.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 48. High 58.

10:19PM

Due to medium range model guidance that is clearly on a sugar and caffeine high, resulting in my confidence in it being low, I will make this a short discussion, focused on the work week and only touching on next weekend.

Early week (Monday-Tuesday): Upper level low pressure pulls away Monday and high pressure builds in through Tuesday, though a warm front to the southwest of New England may already start sending some high clouds into the region during Tuesday after a bright and seasonably cool day to start the week on Monday.

Mid week (Wednesday-Thursday): A warm front will produce lots of clouds for Wednesday. Optimism wins out for Thursday, which I think will feature a return to sun as a high pressure ridge builds over the region as the front weakens and pushes north.

Late week / weekend (Friday-Sunday):  Narrow ridge of high pressure over the region Friday with fair, mild weather. Front approaches from the west over the weekend but may stay far enough west to allow mostly fair and mild weather to dominate. We’ll also watch a potential tropical or hybrid system to the south but there is far too much uncertainty on the development and track of such a system this far out to even worry about any details regarding it.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s urban areas. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 58.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 62.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 52. High 67.

10:13AM

Some of you were awakened, or kept up late, by thunderstorms in the overnight hours. Quite impressive for October and fueled by dew point temperatures in the 60s, quite muggy. With that all offshore now, we are finding that the optimistic forecast for today is going to indeed work out, with the last sprinkles around this morning now gone, and clouds getting set to yield to sunshine, which will dominate the afternoon. The air will continue to be very mild today even as it dries out, with a dry slot of air moving in from the southwest around the upper level low pressure area still centered to the northwest of southern New England.

We still have to get the upper low by the region on Sunday, so  look for a day that starts bright, but then sees some clouds rotate in and develop during the afternoon and evening (though any showers should stay in the mountains far to the west and north). It will also be cooler on Sunday, and even more so on Monday as the upper low finally heads out through eastern Canada and delivers a reinforcing shot of Canadian air to New England.

Beyond Monday, I’m still leaning toward a week that may be a bit on the fence, at least in terms of cloud cover. For now, I’m going to keep things on the dry side, as this pattern has been proving to be drier overall than many of the longer range outlooks have pointed to. I’ve been a skeptic of the wet forecasts myself, and continue to feel that way. Rainfall deficits continue for the region.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Clouds depart, sun takes over. Highs around 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine dominates then shares the sky with clouds later. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 59.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 63.

12:15AM

A low pressure trough west of New England will slowly lift north northeastward through the weekend. The circulation around this will bring different weather to our region on a daily basis through Monday. Surface low pressure on the eastern side of this trough will bring wet weather to the area today. Drier air coming around the trough will put an end to the wet weather and allow for some clearing and mild weather Saturday. Cooler air and some clouds will rotate back in on Sunday as the base of the upper low makes its closest pass northwest to north of the region. Once this is beyond the region the coolest shot of air will come through on Monday but that should also be a fairly bright day.

Quickly looking ahead toward the middle of next week, with moderate to low confidence I’m looking at some cloudiness and milder weather. There may also be some wet weather trying to move in as well as there are some indications of a little battle zone between chilly air to the north and mild air to the south.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and showers, possibly heavy at times. Highs 60-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH inland areas, 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts in coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and showers, some possibly heavy, tapering off before dawn. Lows 50-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a few lingering showers Cape Cod early. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-50. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 45. High 64.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 58.

11:23PM

First, a brief word on the earthquake that occurred on Tuesday evening, centered in Maine. Did indeed feel it here and all over the Northeast. This light quake, though not a frequent occurrence, is not all that unusual either for this part of the country.  Thankfully, no injuries and no major damage have occurred as a result of this quake, though minor damage did take place in a few locations from southern Maine to the VT/NH border (nails out of siding, items falling off shelves, etc.) . Do not be surprised if a few aftershocks are detected.

Now, on to the weather. After a cooler, gusty day on Tuesday, high pressure will slide just south of New England then offshore during midweek. This will result in 2 very nice days around here with abundant sunshine and milder air. An upper level disturbance will send some clouds across the region Wednesday night. Regarding the unsettled weather threat late this week, there are no changes to the previous discussion. I still believe Friday will be the wet day as low pressure moves around an upper level trough centered west of New England. The surface low should move away to the northeast as the upper trough lifts more to the north, allowing drier air to move in during the weekend. Early next week looks mild to start but we’ll be watching another front approaching to see what the timing turns out to be on it.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-65. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-50. Wind SW around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 50-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing from southwest to northeast. Highs 61-66. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers eastern areas early. Low 54. High 63.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 61.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 67.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 49. High 64.

9:09PM

A cold front will amble its way across southern New England tonight and early Tuesday. Showers, a few heavy, will traverse the region during the evening before becoming less numerous overnight. Clouds may hang on over eastern areas of MA and the NH Seacoast region early Tuesday as the front slides offshore. Much drier and cooler air will flow in during the day Tuesday setting us up for a chilly Tuesday night and early Wednesday. But with things moving right along in the atmosphere, high pressure will pass rapidly south of the region and winds will switch from northwest to southwest during the day Wednesday. Temperatures will respond with a recovery during the day. A disturbance passing through the region will bring some cloudiness Wednesday night.  A warm up with fair weather will continue into Thursday ahead of approaching low pressure. I am continuing to favor a more progressive (faster west-to-east movement) solution for late this week with a trough sending an area of rain or showers in on Friday but then pushing it out during Saturday as dry air rushes in from the west around the base of the trough as it lifts toward southeastern Canada. An early look at Sunday-Monday points to fair and mild to warm weather as high pressure builds south of New England.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers becoming scattered to isolated late. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.

TUESDAY: Any lingering showers over Cape Cod end early with clearing west to east in the morning then mostly sunny to partly cloudy with fair weather clouds popping up in the afternoon. Highs 56-61. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-40 inland, 40-45 coast & urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon with a few more clouds late in the day. Highs 60-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 67.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 52. High 62.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 68.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 76.

7:34PM

The weekend was a showcase of how changeable the weather can be in New England, no matter the season. We went from the chilly winds of Friday night to the frosty cold  Saturday morning to the bright & crisp Saturday afternoon to the showers/rain of Sunday morning to the emerging mild sun and increasing humidity of late in the day Sunday.

Now looking into the week upcoming, there will be some changes again to occur, especially early and late in the week. Obviously the more certain part of the forecast is the early to mid part of the week. A cold front will slide across the region late Monday, preceded by variably cloudy skies, very mild air, a gusty wind, and an increasing chance of showers especially late in the day and at night.

Tuesday through Thursday will be dominated by high pressure with fair weather.

The late week and weekend forecast is tricky, with conflicting guidance. I’m going to go with a more progressive solution which will bring unsettled weather in on Friday but move it along and out of the region Saturday, setting up a fairly decent weekend. This part of the forecast is low confidence and subject to change as the week goes along.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon, greatest chance late day. Highs 63-68 south-facing coasts, 68-73 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 1o-15 MPH shifting to W.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 68.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 51. High 63.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 60.

8:46AM

Quick update (full one later)… Eastern MA, RI, and southern NH forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous showers this morning becoming isolated this afternoon. Temperatures rising from the upper 40s to upper 50s during the day. Wind S up to 10 MPH eventually becoming SW up to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers. Temperatures steady 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers increasing again by late. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 50. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 63.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 50. High 68.

8:35PM

It’s coming to southern New England, the first widespread frost, and in some areas, a freeze that will end the growing season (and kill the mosquitoes and allergy-causing weeds). But that will be Saturday morning. Before that happens, we have Friday, which will be a day in which the cold front marks the leading edge of this chilly air will traverse the region, accompanied by lots of clouds and a  few showers. By late in the day, the sky will clear out and though winds will remain gusty into the evening, delivering the cold air, the winds will slacken off later at night and allow temperatures to fall significantly.

After a crisp and cool Saturday, perfect for outdoor Autumn activities, a strong southwesterly air flow will drive mild air into the region on Sunday, accompanied by clouds and a shower threat. This mild weather and shower threat will last into Monday as a wave of low pressure moves through the region. This will be followed by high pressure and fair weather for the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon then clearing late. Highs 54-59. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost forming. A few fog patches over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows 27-32 except 32-38 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-58. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 61.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 69.

7:44PM

Things are about to start speeding along in the atmosphere, as low pressure just southeast of New England moves away, kicked out by a cold front approaching from the west. This front will cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for a one-day stand Thursday. Another small low pressure area and attendant cold front will blast through the region on Friday, with another area of high pressure sliding in for a nice Saturday. More clouds will return Sunday as low pressure rides northwest of New England and a strong southwesterly flow develops, along with moderating temperatures after a shot of chilly air later Friday into Saturday. Saturday morning will deliver the first frost to many areas away from urban centers and the immediate coast. The milder weather arriving Sunday will last into next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Isolated showers before midnight. Lows 44-49. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible from mid through late afternoon. Highs 62-67. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S up to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered showers evening then clearing overnight. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated PM showers. Low 42. High 59.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

4:42PM

With Monday, Columbus Day, winding down, we look to the 6 remaining days of this week (through the weekend upcoming). We remain in a southwesterly flow aloft, and this is allowing yet another disturbance to ride northeastward into the region during the next couple days. This, along with an inverted trough and developing low pressure area to the south, and approaching front from the west, will result in unsettled weather through Wednesday. High pressure will build in Thursday for a nice day. A fast-moving low pressure area and attendant cold front will sweep through the region Friday with some passing showers, followed by a fair and cool Saturday. The developing fast flow will result in a rapid warm up for Sunday, but probably with more in the way of clouds. It’s too early to tell if showers will accompany this warm up.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain mainly southern MA and RI late. Lows 43-48. Wind variable to E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light rain mainly RI and southeastern MA. Highs 53-58. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 53-58. Wind shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of late-day showers mainly west of the 95 belt. Highs 62-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 58.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 45. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

11:56AM

This is just an updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers after 3PM west and north of Boston, a bit later to the southeast. Temperatures falling from the 70s into the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with any showers ending early, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 45-50. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Cloudy with rain developing afternoon. Highs 55-60. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending by midnight. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-45. Wind N 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late showers. Low 47. High 67.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 58.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 55.

1:44AM

With the showers moving out to sea via Cape Cod, low level moisture will be trapped for the early morning hours, resulting in low clouds and fog, but this will be scoured out by a developing westerly breeze during the day Friday. Temperatures will rebound and it will feel a little like summer – an “Octoaster” so to speak. The balmy air will stick around for most of Saturday as well, though clouds will be more dominant and there is a shower risk as a cold front crosses the region. This front will stall just off the coast and low pressure will ride northward along it, bringing a chance of rain to eastern MA, RI, and southern NH, on Sunday afternoon and evening. By Columbus Day, Monday, this will be long gone and we’ll enjoy a breezy, cool, bright Autumn Day. Fair weather will hang on Tuesday as temperatures moderate slightly after a cold morning. A shower threat returns for Wednesday of next week when another frontal system arrives.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Low clouds and foggy areas melt away to sunshine by noon. Highs 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 55-60. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few passing showers mainly during the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45-50. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain by mid afternoon. Highs 53-58. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 51. High 68.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 59.

2:25AM

After one more damp day today, weather systems will be on the move again with different weather every day through early next week, including the Columbus Day Weekend…

A low pressure system will bring waves of showers through an already damp and drizzly southern New England today, but all of this will push offshore for a fabulous Friday with returning sunshine and warm air.

Columbus Day Weekend will feature a transition from mild to cool. A cold front will cross the region Saturday but it will still be fairly mild, even though clouds will dominate and a few showers are possible. Saturday will not be a washout by any stretch. Sunday, on the other hand, will be chilly and may turn quite wet as a wave of low pressure moves up along the front, which will be parked just off the coast. This should keep moving so that Monday turns out dry and cool. Temperatures will recover and moderate toward the middle of next week as high pressure dominates.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of showers. Highs 61-66. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low 55-60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers. Low 58. High 68.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Midday and afternoon rain. Low 45. High 53.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 58.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.