6:38PM

More like pattern morph… It’s not sudden. It’s not drastic. We’ve seen a few recent cold shots, and another is coming, with a storm between now and then. But this storm, despite bumping into some cold air at its beginning, is going to bring too much warm air with it for any kind of significant snow in the Boston area, though from southern NH northward may be a different story, depending on the storm’s track. Warm land, warm water, and wind off the water will play a big roll in keeping the air just a touch too warm for any significant snow. This will all take place on Thursday, and following that event will be a shot of colder air for the upcoming long weekend.

Forecast Details for Boston Area…

PRE-DAWN: Cloudy with a few areas of light snow possibly dusting the ground. Low 30-35. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. High 41-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 19-24. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high cloudiness at times. High 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain, may begin as a period of snow northwest of Boston. Low 32. High 47.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. AM rain showers. PM snow showers. Low 33. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. PM snow showers. Low 17. High 31.

MONDAY – MLK JR. DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 9. High 27.

1:41AM

Summary…  Another week in which the overall temperature will be somewhat above normal,  and again no significant snowstorms are in the offing. By the MLK Jr. Day Weekend, we’ll see colder weather and some threat of snow showers. The biggest story of the week will be the Thursday wind/rain event.

Breakdown… Monday: A bubble of high pressure brings plenty of sun and cool weather. Tuesday: Low pressure tracking SE of  Cape Cod throws clouds in for the morning and a weak cold front coming down from the north adds a few more clouds to midday, but any precipitation from the low stays offshore and the front is not likely to produce anything other than a scattered rain or snow shower mainly over hilly areas well N &  W of Boston. Wednesday: Starts sunny, ends cloudy as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Thursday: Stormy, but not snow. Wind and rain as very mild temperatures dominate. Low pressure is expected to track northeastward passing near or over Cape Cod by evening. Friday: Low pressure is beyond the region and gusty west winds and cooler air return, with a chance of a few rain showers as it remains mild (cold air is stuck back to the northwest and waits for a cold front to get through the region before it really starts moving in). Weekend: Colder air moves in, but not severely cold. Snow showers are possible at times, especially Sunday as a weak wave of low pressure moves across the region. MLK Jr. Day on Monday may see the cold air reinforced somewhat.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 36-41. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Low 30-35. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Isolated rain or snow showers possible in the hills far northwest of Boston late afternoon. High 41-46. Wind S around 10 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 26-31. Wind W around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. High 41-46. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain & wind. Low 40. High 50.

FRIDAY: AM rain showers. PM sun/clouds. Morning high 45 then cooling.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 19. High 33.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Low 18. High 32.

MONDAY – MLK JR. DAY: Variably cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 16. High 29.

3:16AM

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind light NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 28. High 44.

THURSDAY: AM rain. PM showers. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Low 18. High 33.

2:37PM

Warmer today than even I thought it would be! And a fantastic day to take down the outside decorations, that is between periods of the Bruins game. Good thing I started this morning.

So not much of a weather discussion on this update, just a quick forecast update based on my latest look at things. Another update should followed by tomorrow morning and then the full discussion of the week ahead tomorrow evening. Still watching the storm for midweek and it still looks like a rain producer. Not quite ready to dive into any  kind of “real” winter pattern just yet. Still waiting…

Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON… Sun gives way to clouds west to east. Temperature around 60 (!) but coasting back through the 50s. Light wind.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind light NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 28. High 44.

THURSDAY: AM rain. PM showers. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

3:39PM

The brief shot of very cold air just passed may be a taste of things to come, but they won’t be coming too quickly. Looking over the maps today it’s pretty easy and safe to say that a quiet pattern will continue for the next 5 or 6 days, along with no major cold. In fact, the early part of the weekend may be quite mild once again. The next storm threat is near or just after midweek next week, and at  this early stage, odds favor rain over snow for the Boston Area. In the immediate future, clouds will dominate through Friday as warm air comes back into the region, first above us, then eventually down to the surface by Saturday. The only threat of precipitation is a slight risk of non-accumulating very light snow on Friday morning as some of the warmer air is riding over colder air at the surface. By late Friday, it will already be feeling milder, setting us up for a run at 50 degrees Saturday. Sunday will cool down slightly, and the early part of next week looks dry and cool, but not too cold.

Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light snow in the morning. No snow accumulation. High 38-43. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW around 10 MPH by late day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 46-51. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 36-41. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 39.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 39.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 44.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 30. High 42.

4:31PM

Going to back off a bit on the storm threat for Sunday, as it looks like things don’t combine in the right way to send a storm south of us with marginally cold enough air for mix to snow. Odds are against it at this point, so just expect moderating temperatures, slightly at first for the next couple of days, then more meaningful moderation on Saturday as a low pressure area tracks north of the region. I’m still expecting a frontal passage leading to chillier air on Sunday, but just lots of clouds and no precipitation. It looks quiet and not too cold into the start of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through midnight. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 16-21. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Becoming mostly cloudy late. Low 21-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind WSW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 43.

3:26PM

The headline is for the immediate weather: COLD. Not record cold. But cold nevertheless, especially compared to what we have seen. Even this cold shot will not last too long, as milder weather lies ahead yet again as we hit the end of the week. Beyond Saturday, my forecast confidence drops off quickly due to great spread among the various guidance, so for today I’m using a blend of my favorite model (ECMWF for those that care) and a little gut feeling, and a vague forecast will be the result, so please check back if you want my thoughts as I figure out what will happen.

In the more immediate future, our cold snap will last through tomorrow before a weak system passing north of the region moderates the temperatures for Thursday. A slight chill-down on Friday will be followed by another warm-up on Saturday, and then a chill-down once again later in the weekend, though not to the level we are at now. A low pressure area is expected to slide south and east of New England on Sunday. With colder air in place, or at least close by, it’s a little too early to say what type of precipitation will would see from this system, assuming it comes close enough to give us any.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 5-10. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 23-28. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 15-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 33-38. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 30. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

1:10AM

Though some midwinter cold is on the way, there are still no signs of significant snow.  This week will start out with a windy weather change, a plunge in temperature from the mild weekend readings to midwinter cold by Monday night through Wednesday night, followed by a moderating trend later in the week. Some moderate to locally heavy rain showers have been moving through the Boston area with the initial cold front during Sunday night, but all of this activity will be offshore to the east by morning. A couple more trough lines and a secondary cold front will come by during the day Monday and into the evening, bringing a slight chance of snow showers as the cold air comes in. After a cold snap Tuesday & Wednesday, expect a moderating trend for later in the week. It may turn a little unsettled at some point toward the weekend, but indications are that no major storminess will occur.

Detailed Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Rain showers ending from west to east. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Slight chance of snow showers, especially over the hills north and west of Boston. High 40-45 in the morning then cooling to the 30s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind W 15-25 MPH shifting to NW. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 22-27. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 5-10. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 21-26. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers early, then partly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy with a chance of light mix to rain showers late. Low 24. High 42.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

12:26PM

This is just a quick forecast update for the remainder of the New Year’s Weekend, which runs through Monday for some people, and for the work week following, or the final few days of Christmas for others (through January 6). A discussion of the week ahead and updated forecast will be posted this evening. Happy New Year all!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 46-51. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers before midnight. Numerous rain showers after midnight. Low 33-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Intervals of sun and clouds. Chance of rain showers during the morning hours. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. High 40-45 in the morning then cooling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 24-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 22.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 44.

8:29PM

A warm front will drift northward across southern New England tonight, putting a cap on any temperature drop. Low pressure will track across central and northern New England on New Year’s Eve with mild weather in the Boston area along with showery weather. Shower activity should be done in time for First Night outdoor activities. Temperatures will remain above freezing all night too, with the exception of some inland locations. New Year’s Day on Sunday will be fair and mild, but a change will be coming as several cold fronts and troughs move across the region from Sunday night through Monday night, resulting in some rain to snow shower activity as the cold air comes in waves. This will lead to the 2 coldest days of the season so far Tuesday & Wednesday of next week as some Arctic air is tapped in Canada and delivered to New England. There is still no significant snow in sight.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperature rising through the 30s but holding in the lower 30s in some inland areas. Wind variable from NE to SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially midday through mid afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. High 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Slow clearing. Patchy fog. Low 31-36. Wind SW shifting to W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow or rain showers during the day. Chance of a snow squall in the evening. High 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

11:37PM

The weather pattern is making a shift, in a way. The upcoming pattern will feature temperature swings, with the colder shots more pronounced, and mainly dry weather. The snow drought continues.

A warm front will lift northward through the Boston area Friday, with clouds dominating. Low pressure will pass north of the region, across northern New England, during Saturday, and with mild air in place, we’ll see rain showers. This should exit, stage east, in time for First Night, which will be fair and relatively mild (that is, temperatures above freezing). Fair, mild weather will dominate for the first day of 2012.

As we enter the first full week of 2012, the coldest air of the season will dive out of eastern Canada and make a 2-day visit by Tuesday & Wednesday.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers after 11PM. Temperature steady 40-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. High 45-50. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Clearing. Low 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 47-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the day, snow showers night. Low 37. High 44.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 23.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 4. High 19.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 35.

3:51PM

A  cold front moving through with no precipitation, few clouds, but plenty of wind, will bring a shot of cold air into the Boston area tonight through Thursday night. High pressure north of the region will give a bright day on Thursday.  Clouds will move in rapidly by early Friday as a disturbance from the west moves in, probably in 2 stages, 1 during the day and a second one at night. The track of these disturbances will determine whether the Boston area sees rain/snow showers, or a period of mix/snow. Leaning toward option number 1 right now, but the second disturbance’s track may be close enough to go either way. A sliver of high pressure will bring dry weather for First Night and milder weather to the region for the start of 2012 on  Sunday, but a cold front approaching by late day will increase clouds and bring a threat of rain showers later Sunday. A second cold front on the observed holiday, Monday, will bring colder temperatures and a snow shower risk. Fair, cold weather is expected as we head toward the middle of the first week of 2012.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Low 18-23. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25 early then rising back toward 30 later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the morning and rain showers in the afternoon. High 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers changing back to snow showers. Snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch. Low 30-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers through mid morning. High 35-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly cloudy. Low 24-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 13. High 31.

This is an edit/update of the previous blog entry.

2:39AM

Dry weather will be back today, with any snow showers hanging out in the Mountains far west and north of Boston as colder air moves in. Temperatures will fall during the day.

Expected a cold and dry Thursday as high pressure dominates.

By Friday, warmer air will try to move back in, and riding up over the cold air it will generate some snow and rain showers in the region. By late in the day and at night, a stronger impulse is expected to cross the region and may produce a general period of mixed precipitation to snow, with just enough cold air in place. By later Saturday, New Year’s Eve, mostly dry weather is expected but a gusty breeze and chilly air is likely. It will not be frigid, however, as some New Year’s Eves have been around these parts.

A milder day is expected for the first day of 2012.

The latest guidance for next week is in a little more agreement and is leaning a little more away from a big storm on the East Coast. But there are many days to monitor what goes on next week.

Forecast details…

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Temperature falling slowly through the 40s into the 30s by late afternoon. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH, shifting to NW by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill falling below 10 at times.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Steadier mix or snow at night. Low 18. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Snow/mix early. PM snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S HOLIDAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. PM snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 31.

8:25PM

A stormy night is underway, but the rain part of it will not last long. The heaviest is moving into the Boston area from the southwest as of 8PM and will be gone in about 4 hours. The positives about this are that it is quick-moving, the unfrozen ground allows absorption of the rain, and the lack of a frozen snowpack means less threat of flooding.

The main story with this system will be the wind. Strong south to southwest winds may occur with the heaviest rain especially  south of the Mass Pike. As the storm passes north of the area and moves away Wednesday, strong northwest winds are expected on the back side. Some minor wind damage may occur, and power outages, though not widespread, are not out of the question. Dry weather will be back for Wednesday, with any snow showers hanging out in the Mountains far west and north of Boston as colder air moves in. Temperatures will fall during the day.

Expected a cold and dry Thursday as high pressure dominates.

By Friday, warmer air will try to move back in, and riding up over the cold air it will generate some snow and rain showers in the region. By late in the day and at night, a stronger impulse is expected to cross the region and may produce a general period of mixed precipitation to snow, with just enough cold air in place. By later Saturday, New Year’s Eve, mostly dry weather is expected but a gusty breeze and chilly air is likely. It will not be frigid, however, as some New Year’s Eves have been around these parts.

A milder day is expected for the first day of 2012.

Longer range models are divergent in their forecasts for what goes on during the first week of 2012, with one showing weak weather systems and no major storms, while the other shows a major storm threat for the East Coast. In the interest of the New Year’s weekend upcoming, and many other things going on during the next few days for holiday week traveling, I’m going to just leave next week alone for now and look at it later.

On to the details…

TONIGHT:  Rain, moderate to heavy at times, with a chance of thunder, ending from southwest to northeast by 2AM, with partial clearing following. Temperature rising to around 50. Wind S shifting to SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially south of Boston.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Temperature falling through the 40s into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH, shifting to NW by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill falling below 10 at times.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Steadier mix or snow at night. Low 18. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Snow/mix early. PM snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S HOLIDAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. PM snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 31.

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