4:00PM

The active late Summer / early meteorological Fall weather pattern continues…

Hurricane Katia made its closest pass to New England and is now heading out to sea, racing into the North Atlantic. She is responsible for dragging drier air into the region, scouring out the low clouds and fog that started the day. You probably noticed filtered sunshine even after the low clouds were gone. That was a shield of high clouds around the outer edge of Katia. Even though we were not directly impacted by her, she continues to send large waves into coastal areas. These will continue into Saturday before subsiding, but should not cause major problems, just some minor splash-over flooding in areas prone to it. Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Maria will track northwestward across the eastern Caribbean into the weekend, with some heavy rain and gusty winds. Tropical Storm Nate is expected to become a hurricane in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and head toward the eastern coast of Mexico this weekend. It is not expected to impact the US.

Closer to home, high pressure will build north of New England this weekend while an old frontal boundary sits just south of New England. This set-up will mean cooling temperatures, most sun north of Boston, and most clouds to the south over the weekend.

High pressure is expected to shift to the south and east, building off the coast, and bringing a return to summertime temperatures for the first half of next week…

One more note before the Boston Area Forecast. Today (Friday) is the last day to vote for blogs in WBZ TV’s contest. Please cast another vote for Woods Hill Weather Chat!

http://boston.blogger.cbslocal.com/most-valuable-blogger/blog/181-woods-hill-weather-weather-chat/

Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF DAY: Mostly sunny. Temperature in the 70s. Wind 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 50-55 inland, 55-60 coast. Wind light N.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny north of Boston, partly cloudy from Boston south. High 70-75, cooling into the 60s along the shore during the afternoon. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 53-58. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny north of Boston, mostly cloudy from Boston south. High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 64.

3:35PM

Lots going on in the weather department these days: Irene not long ago, flooding resulting from it in western New England, tree damage eastern areas. Other heavy rain episodes resulting in additional flooding, including in some eastern areas the last few days, associated with the remains of Lee. The big deluge for the Boston area was this morning and if you were in the Boston area, you knew it. It caught me a bit off-guard, since I didn’t forecast it quite that heavy. So if you were stuck in it, and not as prepared as you could have been based on my forecast, sorry! Hope you keep coming back to read anyway. I have my share of forecast misses, and this was one of them.

What’s coming up? We are about at the end of the unsettled stretch, but it will be a little slow to improve through Friday as I think we may still see a fair amount of cloudiness through Friday. In fact, clouds may be stubborn over far southern New England for much of the weekend as high pressure builds north of the region and a disturbance and old frontal system sits just to the south of the region. We may have a return to a more summery feel by early next week as high pressure slips to the south of us and sends warmer southwesterly winds in.

Katia? No hurricane here, but the storm has stirred up large waves and big ocean swells offshore which are already affecting the coastline, and will continue to do so through Friday, and possibly into the weekend, before subsiding. There may not be a great deal of calming of the ocean as yet another tropical system (Maria) is out in the Atlantic already stirring up the waters once again. We’ll talk more about Maria’s possible path in future posts. And don’t forget about Nate in the Gulf of Mexico (no immediate impact on the US).

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. A few areas of brighter sky, a few pockets of drizzle, and a few areas of fog. Temperature holding in the 60s. Wind light NE.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog & drizzle with isolated showers through 11PM. Low 57-62. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 73-78. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 54-59. Wind NNE 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny – most sun north of Boston, least sun south of Boston. High 70-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 53-58. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 81.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers/thunderstorms evening or night. Low 62. High 86.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early. Low 58. High 74.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 65.

Moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms continue through midday in the Boston area before tapering off.

Full update about 3:30PM. Sorry for the delay…

4:06PM

We’ll be stuck in this pattern for a couple more days, through Thursday, as a frontal system oscillates back and forth in the region and areas of moisture move along it from the south. Much of the time the Boston area will be on the cooler side of the front with clouds, periods of rain and drizzle, and a wind off the ocean. For a time on Wednesday to early Thursday this front may push just far enough northwestward to get Metro Boston and at least southeastern MA into the warmer air on the other side. This would just increase the humidity and the chance of thunderstorms, however. Complete clearing is not expected until as last as Friday night, as some trapped low level moisture and instability may hold the clouds in during Friday.

Hurricane Katia will make its turn to the north and northeast during the next few days, passing between Bermuda and the US East Coast, generally a safe distance from both, but again, as mentioned before, close enough to cause rough surf along the coast later this week. This will result in some minor splashover flooding and dangerous rip currents.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: Generally cloudy. Some breaks may occur especially from Metro Boston southward on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Episodes of mostly light rain and drizzle. Pockets of heavier showers cannot be ruled out. Slight risk of thunderstorms especially Wednesday evening. Steadiest rain tonight, least chance of rain Thursday. Temperature generally in the 60s but may warm to the lower 70s for a time Wednesday especially Metro Boston southward. Wind mostly NE-E up to 10 MPH but shifting to SE for a while Metro Boston southward during Wednesday.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 72-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 78.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Low 62. High 86.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 62. High 79.

5:51PM

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms mainly after midnight. Areas of fog. Mild and muggy. Low 62-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain through mid afternoon then a few lingering showers. Areas of fog. Cool and humid. Temperature steady 62-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain or showers. Cool and damp. Low 57-62. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle early. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Mild and humid. Hig 70-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 75.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 70.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 80.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Low 64. High 90.

1:58AM

Happy Labor Day 2011!

This won’t be the best of the 3 days here in the Boston area, as clouds will probably end up ruling, and there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as well during the day. However, it still looks like most of the shower activity will hold off until day’s end or tonight, so the day will not be a washout by any stretch. The frontal system responsible for the increased chance of showers today and tonight will be slowing down to a crawl and becoming stationary over the region, and will hang around right through the middle of the week. This will allow some of the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression Lee (over the Gulf Coast States), to move up along the front and produce periods of showers during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. I still expect Hurricane Katia to take a path northwestward, passing southwest of Bermuda, eventually turning north between Bermuda and the US East Coast, then northeast, passing well offshore of New England late in the week. Katia will do 2 things, one positive and one negative. The negative impact will be the large ocean swells and rough surf that will impact the coast later in the week. This will result in dangerous rip currents, and possible splashover in areas prone to it. The positive impact will be that the storm will serve to pull the stationary front and wet weather out of here later Thursday or Friday, introducing a very nice period of weather in time for next weekend. Hopefully this timing works out.

Boston Area Forecast for the next 7 days…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely. Mild and muggy. High 72-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with episodes of showers. Patchy fog. Mild and muggy. Low 64-69. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Warm and humid. High 75-80. Wind variable 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 66. High 76.

FRIDAY: Clearing. Low 59. High 77.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 72.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75.

10:14AM

About half way through the long weekend for most people! Hope you are all having a good weekend, whatever your plans are…

No big changes, so we’ll reserve a full discussion for a Monday morning post, which will take the place of “The Week Ahead” that usually appears on Sunday night. I will quick update later today if needed, otherwise look for a full update early Monday.

In the mean time, the latest Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Variably cloudy. Warm and humid. High 81-86 except 70s to 80 at some coastal areas that face south. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 77-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Showers likely. Low 62. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 72.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

11:42AM

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy.  Warmer and more humid. High 80-85 except 75-80 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but a sea breeze in some coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 62-67. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Very warm and humid. High 83-88. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 77-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Showers likely. Low 62. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 72.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

It’s gonna beeeeeeeeeeee a really nice Labor Day Weekend for 2/3 of it (Saturday & Sunday), and so-so for the final day (Monday).

7:23PM

All that I spoke of in the last blog holds true… High pressure offshore pumps warmer and more humid air into the region as a cold front slowly edges its way toward the region, but probably takes until Monday to bring any threat of showers and storms to Metro Boston. There may be some isolated activity the other days well to the west and north of the city.

Looking into next week… The front that arrives Monday may be slow to leave Tuesday, which may end up showery. Hopefully the front pushes far enough offshore for a drier, cooler Wednesday, but I’m just not sure of this yet.

Tropical Topics… Hurricane Katia will be moving west to west northwest over the open waters of the Atlantic with an eventual path north of the Caribbean and south of Bermuda. The very early feeling is that Katia will never have a major impact on the US Mainland, other than some large ocean swells and possible rough surf toward the end of next week. This is by no means an all-clear on any East Coast threat as it is FAR too early to be certain of her eventual path. I do think that in the short term it is a lock that Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico is going to have a far greater impact on the US, as it is expected to bring tremendous rainfall amounts over the next few days to Louisiana and Alabama (with major flooding likely, including in the New Orleans area, where 10 to 20 inches of rain may occur). Whether or not any of this moisture eventually makes its way to New England remains to be seen.

The latest Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear start then areas of low clouds forming. Cool. Low 54-59. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Any low clouds dissipating by mid morning, mostly sunny late morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Warmer and more humid. High 80-85 except 75-80 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but a sea breeze still possible near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 62-67. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 82-87. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 77-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 62. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 72.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

9:21PM

If you were lucky enough to start your Labor Day Weekend today, as I was, then you enjoyed a great day if you were outside. I spent some time at Hampton Beach NH, where recently the water temperature had dumped from near 70 to the upper 50s, after the passage of Irene. But today, with an onshore wind, the water temperature rebounded somewhat, and though I did not look at the observed temperature, I figure by feel it was back to the lower 60s. It wasn’t a totally sunny day as there were areas of high & middle clouds moving through, but it was very nice.

Another nice day is expected Friday, but cooled by an onshore wind. Some low clouds may be present along the coast to start the day but most of them will burn off rather quickly once the sun comes up.

As for the actual Labor Day Weekend (Saturday-Monday), expect humidity to increase Saturday and Sunday with high pressure off the coast. A frontal system from the northwest will be very slow to  move into the region, reaching western and northern New England Sunday but hanging out there until it finally moves into southeastern New England on Labor Day. That day will bring the greatest chance of showers and storms to the Boston area.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low clouds may form near the coast. Low 53-58. Wind E-NE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny through mid morning with any low clouds dissipating, then mostly sunny late morning on. High from near 70 immediate shoreline to 74-79 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 54-59. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 75-80. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 71.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 73.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 70.

3:43AM

High pressure north of New England will provide fair weather with coolest air at the coast the next 2 days, before all areas warm back up Saturday. A frontal system moving very slowly into the region Sunday-Monday will provide focus for higher humidity and some shower activity. With luck, most of the shower activity will hold off until Monday.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny this morning. Mostly sunny this afternoon. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 70-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 70.

1:38AM

High pressure will continue to be the dominant player in the weather during the next several days as the quiet weather continues for the last day of August and the early days of September. Nice weather will carry into a good part of the Labor Day Weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85 but cooling back through the 70s along the coast in the afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to E during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind light E.

THURSDAY: Sun mixed with clouds. High 75-80. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 76.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Chance of showers. Low 63. High 79.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 69.

9:14PM

Short and sweet tonight. High pressure dominates most of this week with fair weather being the rule. Weak fronts pass by later Wednesday and sometime early in Labor Day Weekend, based on current timing.

In the tropics, a new system is organizing far out in the Atlantic and is many days away from being any potential threat to land areas.

Forecast for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55-60 coast and Boston, 50-55 elsewhere. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55-60. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 78-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 79.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers late. Low  62. High 83.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early. Low 62. High 81.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 77.

11:50PM

Irene thoughts and summary… Though the storm itself has departed, other than leftover gusty winds tonight, Irene is not done impacting the region. There are many people that have perceived this storm to be lame, or wimpy, and that may be at least partly due to the media’s overall message that doom was descending upon all of us. Call it what you will, or blame who you will. I am not really looking to editorialize on this blog. The facts are, though some areas did see tree damage and coastal flooding, a large part of eastern New England dodged a bullet, not including the nearly half million that lost  power during the storm, many of whom are still without and may be for another day to few days. Peak wind gusts were about as expected in eastern areas, 45-75 MPH (a little stronger in some of the higher elevations such as Blue Hill in Milton, which gusted just over 80 MPH). There were swaths of the Boston area that largely escape the strongest winds, with their peak gusts landing in the lower range above. Again, these are the lucky ones. West of the storm track, which was across far western New England, was where the real trouble was. Some of you may have seen some of the pictures out of VT and parts of NH tonight. The flooding there is very serious, and in some places very damaging, due to the heavy rainfall that was forecast to fall and did fall to the west of the storm’s path. Significant impact was also seen in the Mid Atlantic down to eastern North Carolina. The death toll from the storm is around 20 (don’t have an official number as of the writing of this).

Elsewhere in the tropics… With Irene in the main picture today, Tropical Storm Jose formed almost unnoticed near Bermuda today, but this weak storm will remain over water as it moves to the north and will never be a factor in the weather along the US East Coast. A new very organized tropical wave that came off Africa has been passing south of the Cape Verde Islands in the same region that Irene formed, and will likely become the next named system (Katia) early this coming week, but will be over far open ocean for many days to come.

What’s coming up this week in the Boston area? The gusty winds of tonight will be diminishing toward morning but there will still be some breezy conditions into the day Monday between the departing Irene and a high pressure area moving in. Expect a much drier, bright day Monday. Nice weather should rule on Tuesday as well but we may see some clouds as a weak disturbance slides north of the region. Another high pressure area builds in Wednesday with nice weather. We then close the book on August.

As September begins, it looks like high pressure will be in general control for at least the first couple days of the month Thursday & Friday. It’s a bit early to really be focusing on Labor Day Weekend at this time, so I’ll take a stab at it briefly on the extended outlook, but don’t pay much attention. We’ll handle the forecast for the final holiday weekend of summer 2011 as we get to midweek.

I hope everybody that has suffered some kind of impact and misfortune from Irene can recover quickly.

The forecast for the Boston area for the week ahead…

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Cooler and drier. Low 55-60. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing toward dawn.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and dry. High 80-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and dry. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Mild and dry. High 77-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 80.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 81.

7:50PM

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds followed by complete clearing. Humid. Low 65-7o. Wind W 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts possible over higher elevations, diminishing overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and less humid. High 80-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 58-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High 74-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84