4:47PM

Updating the Boston Area Forecast for the long weekend and much of next week…

A couple more updates will be posted during the course of the weekend and the usual Week Ahead segment will post on Monday instead of Sunday.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 40-45 except 35-40 some inland valley locations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Rain. Low 50. High 60.

FRIDAY: Showers. Low 50. High 64.

5:04PM

It’s a matter of opinion, but if you make a list of great weather weekends, the one upcoming will end up near or at the top.

High pressure will be in control of the weather for the next several days. We’re on the cool side of this high now and will remain there through Friday, before we get to the warm side for the remainder of the dry weather stretch, which is expected to last through Tuesday. Record high temperatures are possible on Sunday (Boston’s record is 82 for October 9). Very slight cooling may take place toward the end of the dry stretch as winds shift more northerly, but it will still be running much warmer than normal.

Things may get unsettled around the middle of next week, but it’s a long way off and not easily nailed down this far out.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Widespread frost forming. Patchy shallow fog over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Low 32-37 except 37-42 immediate shoreline and in urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early then diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny – areas of high clouds. High 60-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 40-45 except 35-40 some inland valley locations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Rain. Low 50. High 60.

4:45PM

The discussion below is an update of the previous one.

High pressure will build eastward through the Columbus Day Weekend providing many days of dry weather. The biggest thing to change will be the temperature during this period of time, starting out breezy and chilly Thursday, cool into Friday, then a weekend warm-up! In fact, we may go from having widespread frost Friday morning to record warmth by Sunday! That’s New England.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost inland valley areas. Low 38-43 except 32-37 inland valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valley areas, strongest higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny – some fast-moving fair-weather clouds will pop up late morning through early afternoon. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 82.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 63.

1:17AM

Expect a windy and mostly dry day today behind departing low pressure to the east and approaching high pressure from the west. Enough upper level energy and cool air may still allow a few showers to form in the afternoon, but they will be isolated.

High pressure will build eastward through the Columbus Day Weekend providing many days of dry weather. The biggest thing to change will be the temperature during this period of time, starting out breezy and chilly Thursday, cool into Friday, then a weekend warm-up! In fact, we may go from having widespread frost Friday morning to record warmth by Sunday! That’s New England.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers especially from mid through late afternoon. High 60-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy frost inland valley areas. Low 38-43 except 32-37 inland valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valley areas, strongest higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 80.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 64.

4:26PM

Slow-moving low pressure sent yet more bands of showers into the region last night and today, and as most of you know, a heavy rain band with thunderstorms set up just north of Boston and caused flooding in parts of northeastern MA, especially around Peabody and Swampscott, and parts of Salem, Beverly, and Marblehead, where 3 to 6 inches of rain fell, much of it in a 2 to 3 hour period.

This low is finally accelerating eastward, south of New England, and is pulling the remains of the heavy rain band through eastern MA as of mid afternoon. We’ll see the shower activity taper off from north to south as we move into the evening hours. Plenty of clouds may linger and there could be a couple leftover showers as well into the nighttime hours.

High pressure will build eastward in the coming days, but with low pressure still not that far offshore, we’ll see clouds linger into a portion of Wednesday along with gusty winds. Much cooler air will also dive into the region Wednesday and linger into Friday. Later Friday, you’ll notice it starting to feel milder, and this will set us up for a fantastic Columbus Day Weekend with lots of sunshine and above normal temperatures. In fact, a few record high temperatures may be challenged on Sunday (Boston’s record for October 9 is 82).

Detailed forecast for Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Low 48-53. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy start then clearing leading to a mostly sunny finish. High 60-65. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost in valley areas. Low 38-43 except slightly colder in valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 80.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 73.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 64.

10:25PM

As I like to do when the weekend upcoming is a holiday weekend, as it is for us in New England, I’ll attempt an 8-day forecast all the way through Columbus Day Weekend.

Some of you may not realize that a Category 4 Hurricane (Ophelia) was racing northward in the western Atlantic this weekend, now weakening and accelerating and will pass near the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland, Canada, early Monday as it turns northeastward. Some large ocean swells have been sent toward the US East Coast as this storm was churning up the waters offshore, and some of these will be arriving along the New England Coast Monday with some splash-over likely in prone areas during the pre-dawn and late afternoon high tides.

As for our weather, it will continue to be governed by low pressure spinning around in the Northeast through Tuesday. This low finally gets out of here by Wednesday, leaving us with a shot of cool and dry air along with a gusty breeze.

The end of the week will feature high pressure building eastward out of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. This should provide fantastic October weather starting Thursday and lasting through most of the weekend (through Sunday at least). Can it last through Monday, Columbus Day? Obviously being 8 days away confidence is not that high, but going with hints on guidance and the kind of pattern we’ll be in, I’ll make the early guess that we may be dealing with a back-door cold front which may introduce clouds. Can’t say much more than that now.

So here is the detailed forecast for the Boston Area!

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated showers. Low 51-56. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Isolated showers. High 63-68. Wind light variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Low 52-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Periods of drizzle with isolated showers in the afternoon. High 61-66. Wind NE 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle early then breaking clouds. Low 45-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 37. High 63.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 66.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 49. High 69.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 72.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Variably cloudy. Low 51. High 64.

3:27AM

Updating the Boston area forecast only… Full discussion later today!

TODAY: Overcast with drizzle, areas of fog, and periods of rain in the morning. Steadiest rain lifting to the north for a mainly cloudy afternoon with just a slight risk of a shower and a few breaks of sun possible. High from near 60 coast to near 70 far inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of drizzle and fog and a chance of showers. Low 50-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. High 62-67. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Showers likely. Low 52. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 65.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 70.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 72.

10:37AM

Broad low pressure will sit and spin over the Northeast for the next few days, almost like what happened in the Midwest during the past week. The low center will be far enough southwest of New England to allow slots of drier air to wrap in, so it will not rain all the time, and in fact clouds may break at times to allow a few periods of sun both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

This same general pattern continues into early next week, but at this point it’s a little hard to pinpoint details of who will see showers and when, who will see sun and when, so for the time being the forecast will be fairly generalized, and I’ll try to specify the early week period some time tomorrow

Cautiously optimistic about the second half of next week as it looks like a large ridge of high pressure will build in behind the departing low pressure area.

Have a great weekend everybody!

Boston Area Forecast…

SUNDAY: Overcast with drizzle, areas of fog, and periods of rain in the morning. Steadiest rain lifting to the north for a mainly cloudy afternoon with just a slight risk of a shower and a few breaks of sun possible. High from near 60 coast to near 70 far inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of drizzle and fog and a chance of showers. Low 50-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. High 62-67. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Showers likely. Low 52. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 65.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 70.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 72.

9:02PM

The upper level pattern is more like Spring right now, with cut off low pressure areas, slow-moving, making timing of things difficult. This is true for my recent forecasts. If you look back to posts from last week, you can see that I initially thought we would have a rainy start to the week and a better ending. The low took so long to get here that the first half of the week was quite nice, the unsettled weather got here Thursday, and the fact that yet another upper level cut off low is about to form and hang around, the once nice-looking weekend outlook has to be adjusted to a more unsettled one. Another complex example of the inexactness of weather forecasting. So be it.

So to summarize, we’ve had our showers and storms for now, we have a nice day coming up Friday between today’s activity and a newly forming low that will bring unsettled and cooler weather for the weekend and probably into Monday of next week.

It still looks like we will see fair, milder weather by the middle to end of next week. It just will have a delayed arrival.

It wouldn’t surprise me of the weather has other tricks up its sleeve during the next week, but for now, this is the way I see it…

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 73-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms especially from 8PM to midnight, then scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog. Low 55-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 65-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Low 52-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. High 59-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Chance of rain. Low 52. High 59.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 66.

2:30AM

Upper level low pressure that has been spinning over the Midwest for about a week is finally moving eastward and will take about 4 days to cross the Northeast. There will be a transition from mild and showery weather starting out this period to dry and cool weather by the end of it. Follow along in the latest forecast for the Boston area…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms but not raining all the time. Mild and muggy. High 70-75 except 64-69 immediate coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely early, then becoming partly cloudy but with areas of fog forming. Mild and humid. Low 55-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Warm but less humid. High 73-78. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm early, then becoming partly cloudy. Cooler and drier. Low 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of passing showers. Cooler and drier. High 63-68. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Cool and dry. Low 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Crisp and cool. High 58-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 75.

9:32PM

Yes, we all know the Red Sox have been in their own September swoon, but the weather is about to do the same, as a trough that has been hanging back to the west of us, far enough to allow mostly fair weather the past few days, finally moves eastward and brings showers into the region. Most of these will occur on Thursday. Behind this system, drier air will move in Friday, though there still may be a few showers due to unstable air. Much cooler air is expected over the weekend for the first couple days of October, but the sky will not be cloudless, as cold air aloft will promote cloud development each day. Looking ahead, we remain in a warmer than normal regime overall, so despite the weekend cool shot, it looks like a rapid warm-up takes place early next week.

The Boston Area Forecast…

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain after midnight. Low 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers along with a chance of thunderstorms. High 65-70. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers especially in the afternoon. Low 51. High 72.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 64.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 41. High 59.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 72.

3:05AM

My latest forecast for the Boston Area… Full discussion to follow this afternoon.

TODAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 70-75. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 55-60. Wind E under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain midday and afternoon. High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 55-60. Wind SE around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. High 65-70. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 56. High 70.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 48. High 59.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 44. High 61.

1:33AM

The humid stretch of weather continues, but rainfall was limited during the weekend as most of the moisture was going around the edge of a high pressure area over the western Atlantic, and staying offshore of New England. This will continue to be the case early this week, also aided by a high pressure area at the surface, building down from the Canadian Maritimes. This means mostly dry weather through Tuesday, lots of clouds at times but sun as well, and air still somewhat humid but not oppressively so. As we get to the middle of the week, the rain chances will increase as a cut-off low pressure area to the west moves westward and the ridge to the east also nudges westward, pushing the area of moisture back to the west as well. This low to the west is finally expected to shift northeastward, combine with another trough, and swing through New England at the end of the week, first with additional showers, then opening the door for some drier and cooler air by weekend, which is also the start of October! It should be noted that some of the computer guidance slows this trough down as it comes by here, and even tries to close it off, or cut it off from the main jet stream, allowing it to sit over or just east of New England next weekend. This scenario would be more unsettled than what I have in my extended forecast, but I consider it only a slight possibility at this time, hence the more optimistic forecast. Stay tuned for later updates…

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT & MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Intervals of sunshine during the day Monday. Low 64-69. High 75-80 except slightly cooler coast. Wind light E.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A fair amount of sun during the day Tuesday. Low 61-66. High 70-75. Wind light E.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially midday-afternoon. Low 58. High 72.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 70.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 61.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 62.

12:50PM

Boston Area Forecast Update…

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Intervals of sun at times during days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur at any time but most times rain-free. Patchy fog mainly during the overnight hours. Mild to warm and humid the entire time. Daytime highs 75-80. Overnight lows 65-70. Wind variable mainly S to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 59. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 57. High 68.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 56. High 69.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 71.

Re-posted Friday September 23 2011

4:26PM

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Mild and humid. High 67-72. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours. Areas of fog. Mild and muggy. Low 62-67. Wind light S.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Areas of fog early. Mild and humid. High 70-75. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. High 77.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 62. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 61. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 56. High 64.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 49. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 70.