9:06PM

Venturing a little further out on the limb this week to try to nail down the last 10 days of November. One thing’s for sure, despite some brief shots of cold air, we remain in a warmer than normal pattern and that will continue through month’s end.

The discussion will be short, because there are really no changes from the previous one, only adding some days at the end. What follows is a brief summary of upcoming weather for the Boston area followed by a detailed forecast.

A cold front moving through tonight is bringing only clouds but no precipitation with it. High pressure builds across northern New England Monday into Tuesday as the cold front settles just to the south and waits for low pressure to form and move along it. High pressure will hold wet weather off through Tuesday but some clouds will sneak in at times. Low pressure will cross New England from southwest to northeast Wednesday with a period of rain for the Boston area (too warm for snow this time). I still expect this to be a fast-moving feature with improvement for Thanksgiving, though along with a gusty breeze and chilly air. Much like the last few weeks, high pressure will build across the Northeast then offshore late in the week with mostly fair weather and a warming trend. The last few days of November will see at least one period of unsettled weather as low pressure tries to move in from the south and west, but may be slowed by high pressure hanging around just off the East Coast.

Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind shifting to NW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing before midnight from southwest to northeast. Low 40-45. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain through midday, ending southwest to northeast by 3PM. High 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW by early afternoon and N by late day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-38. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. High 42-47. Wind N-NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 56.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

MONDAY (NOV 28): Chance of rain. Temps above normal.

TUESDAY (NOV 29): Mostly cloudy. Temps above normal.

WEDNESDAY (NOV 30): Partly sunny. Temps above normal.

5:50PM Saturday (original) / 7:32AM Sunday (edit)

The weather pattern is about to throw itself into chaos according to most reliable information. What we will see out of this for now is not a great deal of change from the type of weather we’ve been having. Frequent precipitation events, mild temperatures overall, and brief shots of cold weather, with snow threats only taking place when these cold shots and precipitation events collide (and that is not often). This situation (chaotic transitional pattern) will be in place for the foreseeable future.

The summary of events upcoming has not really changed much, and looking from now into Thanksgiving Weekend, I see these primary weather makers:

Sunday: High pressure offshore, gusty breeze from the southwest but very mild during the day, and a cold front coming through at night with little fanfare other than a gusty, shifting breeze and lots of clouds.

Monday: High pressure builds north of the region as the front hangs up to the south, meaning cooler temperatures and filtered to limited sun.

Tuesday: High pressure holds to the north, front slides northward, ripple of low pressure moving along it, south of the area, means less sun and a slight threat of rain.

Wednesday: A more organized low pressure area moves northeastward across southern New England with a period of rain during the day, and a few rain/snow showers at night.

Thursday: Thanksgiving Day will show improvement as low pressure moves away to the east northeast and high pressure builds toward the region from the west, but expect wind and chilly air, along with clouds to start, then increasing sun.

Friday: High pressure builds in – a bright day, cold start, milder finish.

Saturday: High pressure in control – fantastic late November day, dry and mild.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain. Low 35. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain morning. Rain/snow showers night. Low 35. High 44.

THURSDAY: Clearing. Low 34. High 44.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 56.

3:34PM

Chilly air moved into the region Friday between departing low pressure to the north and high pressure to the southwest of New England. This high will settle south of New England and then off the Atlantic Coast this weekend with generally fair and milder to warmer weather. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night but is only expected to produce clouds without precipitation. A cool high pressure area builds in behind this front early next week. But the front will be lingering just to the south of New England and low pressure is expected to develop and travel along it, bringing unsettled weather for Wednesday, the big travel day before Thanksgiving. At the moment odds favor a weak to moderate and progressive system so it should not hang around. Odds also favor rain but temperatures may be borderline enough so that if we don’t have a wind off the water some areas could deal with a period of mix/snow. It’s far too early to be certain of any details, obviously. Fine-tuning to follow in the days ahead.  Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, should improve as the storm system moves away.

Tomorrow we’ll take a  peak into  Thanksgiving Weekend and Sunday we’ll venture a forecast out through the final days of November.

For now, the details for the Boston Area go this way…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s Boston. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy early with an area of clouds moving across areas north of Boston, otherwise mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low 41-46. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 44.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. Low 32. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 28. High 52.

3:39PM

Before you non-meteorologists ask what a “transitional phase” is, I’ll answer what I mean. All this means is that the current weather pattern (brief cool shots followed by dominant mild weather) is breaking down, but will not settle into a brand new stable pattern just yet. It will be a battle between the departing pattern and what I believe to be the upcoming one. Evidence presents itself to me in this form: Several runs of a normally stable computer model that have not looked too much like each other, but a few starting to come into some agreement. But forget the technical for now…all this means is more changeable weather from here through Thanksgiving, and probably beyond.

Highlights…

This evening: Rain/sleet/snow

Tonight/Friday:  Shot of chilly air tonight through Friday.

Weekend: Another warm-up.

Next week: Dry & chilly start, watching a storm for midweek.

Thanksgiving peek: Will lean toward improvement as progressive storm departs.

Discussion…

A wave of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary,  of which we are on the cold side, during this evening, producing light rain which will switch to sleet & snow when it comes down a little harder and colder air works in. Don’t expect much accumulation, only minor amounts on unpaved surfaces, with most of it occurring in hilly areas west and southwest of Boston (areas to the northwest may not see heavy enough precipitation to get much).

As low pressure departs Friday, expect a bright but breezy & chilly day and a cold night. This weekend, high pressure will slide off the East Coast and a southwest wind flow means milder to warmer temperatures. Expect temperatures to crack 50 Saturday and 60 Sunday.

Another front will quietly cross the region Sunday night with little or no precipitation, followed by high pressure which will bring dry and cool weather early next week.

By the middle of next week, we’ll be needing to watch a low pressure area to the southwest. It’s too early to determine where it will track exactly, and what impact it will have on the region. But way out in advance my early feeling is that Wednesday (a big travel day) will be an unsettled day, and Thursday (Thanksgiving) will see improvement. Stay tuned…

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Overcast with rain, mixing with sleet & snow, then turning to snow in some areas before tapering off. Accumulations of up to 1/2 inch are possible on unpaved surfaces especially in hilly areas west and southwest of Boston. Temperature falling into the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT): Clearing. Low 27-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 46-51. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 27-32. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 44.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: AM rain/snow showers. PM clearing. Low 32. High 44.

Temps fall thru 40s this aftn and light rain comes in..picks up and ends as mix and snow tonight. Coating of snow in some places…best chance hills west and southwest of Boston.

Amateurs and pros…give me your guess how this unfolds. Full update from WHW this afternoon!!

3:43PM

A quick note for the computer model followers: I’m of the opinion that the 12z ECMWF is a piece of garbage today. It’s far too different from the last several runs for me to buy full-on.  Something’s amiss.

Discussion…

Current mild spell ends midweek as low pressure moves along a slow-moving cold front and gives us some rain Wednesday. Clouds linger behind the departing low Thursday as it turns windy and much cooler. A dry but chilly day is expected Friday due to high pressure building right across the region. High pressure slips offshore by the weekend with yet another warm-up. A disturbance early next week may bring a brief bout of unsettled weather sometime later Monday or  Tuesday, but this does not look like a big deal at this time. A bit early to look at Thanksgiving with any confidence, and even more-so due to some model flip-flopping, so I’ll leave that just out of reach for today and take a first stab at it tomorrow.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few light rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mainly during the afternoon hours. High 55-60. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially before midnight. Low 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 62.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain or snow showers at night. Low 41. High 51.

TUESDAY:  Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers early. Low 34. High 46.

Sorry for the delay. Only tweak from previous is cloudier today with a few sprinkles…

6:38PM

Highlights…

* Still in mild regime overall

* Warmest day: Monday

* Wettest day: Wednesday

* Windiest day: Thursday

* Coolest day: Friday

* Weekend Warm-up

Breakdown…

A weakening frontal system moves toward the region Monday, producing varying amounts of clouds and only the slight risk of a few showers in the late afternoon or evening hours.  Warm air will dominate with temperatures sitting at much above normal levels in the 60s. This front settles south of the region Tuesday allowing some sunshine mixed with clouds.  Wet  weather is expected Wednesday as the front hangs up along the coast as a wave of low pressure forms and moves northeastward along it, holding unsettled weather in. Behind this low pressure area Thursday except drier but windy and cooler weather. Continued cool weather is expected Friday but it should be a bright day under high pressure, and once this high slips offshore by the weekend it should turn milder again.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. High 63-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain showers. Low 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 45. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Low 35. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 53.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 43. High 62.

3:36PM

Just an update of the Boston Area Forecast… No major changes from previous discussion. Still working on Wednesday’s forecast. Will carry a chance of rain for now, but subject to change. Leaning in a more pessimistic direction at the moment.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine filtered through variable high cloudiness. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. High 61-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely late. Low 47. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 47. High 55.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 47.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 48.

7:48PM

No complaints this weekend! High pressure slides eastward just south of New England, but with enough influence to provide us with a nice weekend in the Boston area – a cool start Saturday, a seasonable day overall, and turning milder Sunday, a good deal of sun both days but also some middle clouds crossing the northern sky Saturday and some high clouds filtering the sun at times Sunday.

Indian Summer makes a comeback to start next week with temperatures cracking 60 both Monday and Tuesday. Additional clouds are expected, and a few showers are possible Monday, followed by a greater chance of showers later Tuesday.

Midweek rain? Maybe? Maybe not? I’m really not sure how this plays out yet. If a cold front moving through Tuesday night continues to move eastward on Wednesday, we clear out. If it bogs down on the coast, it develops a low pressure wave, holding clouds and rain in for Wednesday. Stay tuned as this part of the forecast is not clear to me.

Late next week looks dry and chilly.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35 inland, 35-40 coast including Boston. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy at times especially north of the Mass Pike. High 50-55. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine filtered through variable high cloudiness. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 41. High 64.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely late. Low 47. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: AM rain. PM clearing. Low 47. High 55.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 47.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 48.

8:30AM

First, I would like to say thank you to all the Veterans who have served us and to all those that are currently serving, including my dad, a WW II Veteran!

Clouds behind our recently-passed cold front will be slow to depart today, but eventually intervals of sun are expected. Either way, expect a blustery and rather chilly day for Veterans Day 2011.

High pressure slips south to southeast of New England this weekend with seasonable temperatures Saturday, milder temperatures Sunday, and fair weather.

Expect another bout of Indian Summer Monday & Tuesday as high pressure remains anchored off the East Coast.  A couple of weak fronts will try to move in during this time, bringing some clouds from time to time, but shower activity should be limited. By later Tuesday or Wednesday as one of these fronts pushes toward the East Coast and slows down, we’ll have to watch for an area of low pressure that could form on it and enhance the rainfall. It’s difficult to time this well in advance, so the extended outlook will be one of limited confidence.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 38-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 64.

TUESDAY: Late-day showers. Low 46. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 42. High 52.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 50.

2:59PM

Tropical moisture moving south to north across the Boston area will soak the region with rain over the next few hours. A cold front moving west to east across the region will cause a few more showers overnight, and some wrap-around moisture associated with its parent low pressure system will hold some clouds in for Friday morning. Expect clearing in the afternoon as dry air works in, along with a gusty wind.

High pressure means a great weekend, with a cool start and mild finish.

Indian Summer returns early next week!

Full discussion later… Forecast update now…

THROUGH EARLY EVENING: Overcast with moderate to heavy rain. Temperature cooling from the lower 60s into the 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 42-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 47. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM showers. Low 41. High 58.

Full forecast later…sorry for the delay.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, especially in the afternoon, greatest chance of heavier showers along and east of Route 95. High 55-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early, heaviest near the coastline. Patchy fog. One more round of scattered showers from west to east a bit later at night. Low 42-47. Wind variable becoming N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sun and passing clouds. High 50-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 54.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 63.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

7:18PM

This round of Indian Summer is just about to end, but not after one more very mild day on Wednesday. A cold front will be moving into New England from the west Thursday, crossing the region from west to east at night. At the same time as this, Tropical Storm Sean will be moving northward in the waters offshore, probably far enough to keep its heaviest rain out over the water, but close enough that it will steal energy and moisture from the approaching cold front. The net result of this is probably less rain that we would have seen with these systems interacting slightly differently or arriving in a more separated fashion. There is, however, a slight chance of one slug of heavier showers along and/or east of Route 95 sometime late Thursday afternoon or early evening as one plume of tropical moisture gets away from Sean and tries to move up in the upper level southerly flow ahead of the cold front. There is about a 50/50 chance that the thrust of this heavier shower activity stays just offshore – something that we need to watch via radar on Thursday.

Behind the cold front, Friday (Veterans Day) will be a blustery, cool day, but should also be dry. I’m removing any chance of showers from the forecast as I think the already moisture starved system will be just sucking in more dry air from the west.

The Weekend: High pressure will be in control, though it will star to slide offshore by Sunday. Dry weather will dominate, along with a good deal of sunshine probably both days. Some medium range computer models try to bring cloudiness in rather quickly on Sunday, but I’m staying optimistic, thinking these clouds will be limited. Either way, expect no rain. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday, but moderate to seasonable. Sunday will turn a little milder.

Earlier, I stated that “this round” of Indian Summer was about to end. We’re not done, as I believe high pressure along and just off the East Coast will strengthen, with next week’s Monday-Tuesday possibly being very similar to this week’s – fair and mild to warm.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low ranging from the upper 30s inland valley areas to around 50 in Boston. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 46-51. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, especially in the afternoon, greatest chance of heavier showers along and east of Route 95. High 55-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early, heaviest near the coastline. Patchy fog. One more round of scattered showers from west to east a bit later at night. Low 42-47. Wind variable becoming N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sun and passing clouds. High 50-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 54.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 63.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

11:08PM

No significant changes to the discussion posted yesterday. Timing of systems is still similar. Dry/mild weather dominates through Wednesday. A transition to cooler weather for the end of the week means that a wet day is likely Thursday. How much rain falls is still up in the air (no pun intended). A low pressure area east of the Bahamas may become a tropical system and move northward into a position that it could either throw a band of heavy rain into the region later Thursday, or just as easily keep it offshore, robbing the region of moisture for really heavy rain. If this happens, the front coming in from the west may also lose some of its punch and produce less widespread rain. Based on this, Thursday’s forecast is low confidence and so I will just leave the wording the same for now.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the upper 30s suburban areas to middle 40s coast and Boston. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70 but cooling back toward 60 along the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable to E in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from near 40 inland to near 50 at the coast. Wind light SE.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Heavier rain possible at night. Low 50. High 60.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers early morning & late day. Gusty winds. Low 44. High 54.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 51.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 61.