7:21PM

Normally I will go out 7 days with my forecast on Sunday night in “The Week Ahead” blog. Today, I’m doing a version of that, but with an even further glance ahead to the overall pattern I expected through the middle of the month (or basically the next 2 weeks).

For my meteorologist readers: NAO going more negative at this time and staying there for the most part until around August 10, then coming back toward neutral or even slightly positive as we get to mid month, along with negative PNA.

For my non-meteorologist readers: The pattern of no major heat and occasionally unsettled weather will persist until around August 10, at which time we will become more likely to see late-summer episodes of HHH weather as the Bermuda High setup may become established for a period of time. This pattern also makes us need to watch for tropical activity in the Atlantic, as it can help storms approach the East Coast.

Boston Area Forecast

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light SE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Low clouds redevelop. Low 62-67. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Low clouds melt away but variable mid level clouds mixed with sun. A few building clouds especially N-NW of Boston in the afternoon with an isolated shower possible. More humid. High 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain mainly after midnight. Muggy. Low 65-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 75-80. Wind SE-E 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY:  Variably cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.

TUESDAY:  Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 66. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 66. High 78.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

7:00AM

An air flow off the Atlantic is keeping us cooler and this will continue through Friday. Some episodes of low clouds will occur but it will not be cloudy all the time. Winds shift to more southerly by Saturday allow it to warm up and get a little more humid, though no major hot weather is in sight through the weekend and into next week. We have to watch for a low pressure system which could bring more widespread showers sometime on Sunday. Timing on this system is uncertain.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind E under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 72-77 coast, 77-82 inland. Wind SE 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 83.

SUNDAY: Chance of showers. Low 65. High 79.

2:53AM

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. High 75-80. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind E under 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 73-78. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

11:50PM

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 63-68. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Variably cloudy afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms especially from 3PM to 7PM. Thunderstorms may produce brief heavy downpours, small hail, and strong wind gusts. High 84-89. Wind W around 10 MPH except near thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 62-67. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75-80, except cooler near the coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 86.

SATURDAY: AM showers. Low 67. High 83.

SUNDAY: AM showers. Low 66. High 82.

11:25PM

Things will be moving right along this week. Cold fronts are expected to move through late Monday, late Wednesday, and late Friday, with chances for thunderstorms each of those times. The first one on Monday may produce some strong to severe storms. The window for storms will be 2PM to 8PM from NW to SE across the region. Look for updates Monday. In the mean time, the detailed forecast for the Boston area for the coming week…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers. Low 64-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms from NW to SE during a 6-hour period from 2PM to 8PM. Some storms may be strong to severe with high winds and hail, torrential rain, and frequent lightning. High 86-91. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 81-86. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 61-66. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms late. High 84-89. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 84.

FRIDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 68. High 88.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 66. High 85.

10:54AM

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. High 80-85 except 70s at the beaches. Wind light N except coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH late.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly sunny and hazy in the afternoon. Thunderstorms possible from 3:00PM to 8:00PM. High 85-90. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 64-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 82-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 64. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 85.

3:20PM

We’re paying in advance for a fantastic summer weekend. Not that today’s been all that bad so far, just cloudy. But the muggies are back for the day and tonight, along with a threat of showers and thunderstorms. The good news is that the lack of sunshine and a south wind (more stabilizing than a southwest wind in eastern MA) will limit the chances for severe storms. There will still be some storms around, and they may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and even frequent lightning (though that would be isolated and likely brief), in some locations tonight. But all of this activity should be offshore by morning and the weekend looks great, as high pressure dominates. Saturday will be the hotter of the 2 days, though Sunday will still be quite warm but with some coastal sea breezes keeping the beaches very nice. A great way to end the month of July!

Typical mid summer weather is on tap for the first few days of August. More about August soon.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Temperature holding 75-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Low 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH, more variable with stronger gusts near storms, shifting to W by dawn.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 85-90. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 65-70. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 82-87. Wind N 5-10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 89.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 86.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 67. High 88.

THURSDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 85.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 83.

4:44PM

Yes, it is true. We are about half way through the final week of July. Don’t despair, summer lovers. There is still much summer left, and even though you will soon notice that those sunsets are not quite as late as they were in June and July, it is still light well into the evening and will continue to be this way for a few more weeks. And we are just passing by the climatological temperature max, so there will be plenty of beach days ahead, and some of the warmest ocean water of the year still is in the time before us.

The weather in the Boston area will be changeable the next few days, though no drastic changes are expected. This will lead to a very nice mid summer weekend. I hope most of you are able to enjoy what will be a great weekend for beaches, pools, bbq’s, and other outdoor activities. On the way to the weekend, we may have to go through a few showers and thunderstorms on Friday, as a weak cold front (more like “drier air front”) moves through, as Friday will be on the humid side and the weekend, though very warm, will be drier. Before we get there, clouds in the sky this afternoon are associated with a pool of cold air passing north of us. This cold pool is what was responsible for the scattered severe thunderstorms yesterday. Once this moves away tonight, the clouds will dissipate. Thursday, a warm front approaching from the west will send some high clouds into the area, filtering the sun at times. These clouds will thicken at night and may produce a few showers, as the leading edge of Friday’s muggy air moves in.

Forecast for the last 4 days of July…

TONIGHT: Decreasing low clouds. Low from the upper 50s rural and suburban areas to lower 60s coastal areas and urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Increasing high clouds. High from the middle 70s immediate coast to the lower 80s well inland. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a few light showers, especially west and north of Boston. Low 63-68. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. High 82-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 85-90. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 64-69. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 84-89 except cooler near the coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with coastal seabreezes possible.

A peek ahead to the first few days of August…

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 65. High 81.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 68. High 92.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Low 69. High 89.

10:40AM

TODAY: Partly cloudy. High 80-85. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55-60. Wind light N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75-80. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 64. High 89.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 90.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 88.

12:25AM

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Low 60-65. Wind SE under 10 MPH becoming S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog and a chance of a shower before 7AM. Thunderstorms possible between 4PM & 8PM from west northwest to east southeast. High 80-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming SW.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Late shower possible. Low 64. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Low 68. High 89.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 91.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 67. High 88.

4:28PM

Updated Boston area forecast to indicate slightly faster timing of showers arriving…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING: Cloudy with episodes of showers, heaviest to the north and west of Boston but briefly moderate to heavy showers are possible in other areas. Temperature steady 68 to 73. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a few thunderstorms. Low 63 to 68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering showers possible during the early morning. Mostly sunny mid morning through mid afternoon. Variably cloudy late afternoon through early evening with a chance of a few passing showers and thunderstorms. High 82 to 87. Wind W 10 to 20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 60 to 65. Wind NW 5 to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind NW 10 to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Low 68. High 89.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 70. High 92.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 88.

11:30PM

A memorable weather week is drawing to a close, highlighted by record heat on Friday and some severe storms across southeastern MA on Saturday. What’s coming up in the week ahead? Read on…

A warm front approaching from the southwest will send clouds into the region Monday, though most shower activity should occur at night. It will be on the cool side ahead of this front during the day. We’ll be in the warm sector on Tuesday when it will become more humid, though not excessively so. A cold front moving through during the evening may trigger a few thunderstorms. This sets us up for a great day Wednesday with warm and dry weather as high pressure builds over the region. This high will slide off the East Coast by Thursday and Friday, allowing the humidity and some heat to return. A couple disturbances passing through the region may cause some showers and thunderstorms at times on those days. Looking ahead to next weekend, the early call is warm to hot and dry.

Detailed forecast for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60 except 60 to 65 urban centers. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. High 74 to 79. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a few thunderstorms. Low 63 to 68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering showers possible during the early morning. Mostly sunny mid morning through mid afternoon. Variably cloudy late afternoon through early evening with a chance of a few passing showers and thunderstorms. High 82 to 87. Wind W 10 to 20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 60 to 65. Wind NW 5 to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind NW 10 to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Low 68. High 89.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 70. High 92.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 88.

10:41AM

Sometimes cold fronts that look like they want to chug through and clean out the air just run out of gas as they come in, and this one has done just that, probably partly due to a disturbance that went by yesterday and bent the air flow around a little bit more from the southwest, which is slowing the forward progress of the front. And even when this front gets by us this evening, it will be set to return as a warm front later Monday, only to have another cold front try to push through on Tuesday. What this means is that the weather will be on the unsettled side (though not bad all the time) for the next 3 days.

High pressure should give a very nice day or 2 at midweek, before heat makes a run at us again at the end of the week. More about the heat threat in The Week Ahead blog tonight.

In the mean time, the Boston Area weather is expected to pan out pretty close to this…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A few episodes of scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Warm and still humid. High 80 to 85 except 75 to 80 at the beaches. Wind N to NE up to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Mild and less humid. Low 60 to 65. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers in the afternoon. High 70 to 75 coast 75 to 80 inland. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Mild and more humid. Low 65 to 70. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 80 to 85. Wind S to SW 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 89.

2:47AM

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the region between 7AM and 9AM (a bit later south of Boston), then increasing sunshine west to east by midday. Hot and moderately humid. High 92 to 97. Wind W 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Briefly strong and gusty winds possible with showers and storms early in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Warm and drier. Low 70 to 75. Wind NW 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy in the morning. Sunny in the afternoon. Mild and dry. High 74 to 79 coast, 80 to 85 inland. Wind N 10 to 15 mph shifting to NE.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Evening showers. Low 59. High 79.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 89.

4:19PM

The hottest days in Boston are usually with winds straight out of the west. Today is no exception. But with that west wind, we often see it very hot and not as humid. Again, that’s the case. The haze has left us for the most part, the air is cleaner, and drying out. Boston’s dew point has dropped from an oppressive 75 almost all the way through the 60s. The temperature has gone over 100 at Logan Airport (tied record of 103), and hit or slightly exceeded 100 in several other cities and towns, but with the lower dew point, the heat index today is not much different from yesterday. And there is a nice enough breeze for ventilation, maybe not as strong as yesterday’s breeze, but still would be worse if winds were under 10 mph the entire time.

What is coming up?

While the humidity is on the decrease, overall, the heat will still be with us through Saturday, even as a cold front moves through. The cooler air will wait until Saturday night and Sunday to move in, as high pressure builds north of us and turns the wind north to even northeast for a time later in the weekend.

Looking into next week, more “normal” July temperatures can be expected for the first half of the week, but there are some signs of a return to heat for the second half of the week. We’ll take a closer look at that later this weekend with The Week Ahead blog.

The latest detailed forecast for the Boston Area and nearby regions…

THROUGH SUNSET: Sunshine, hot, and dry. Temperatures currently in the upper 90s to around 100 will coast back through the 90s to the upper 80s. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Warm and not as humid. Low ranging from the upper 60s in the suburbs to the upper 70s in urban centers. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Hot and moderately humid to drier. High 93 to 98. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Warm and drier. Low 70 to 75. Wind NW 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy in the morning. Sunny in the afternoon. Mild and dry. High 74 to 79 coast, 80 to 85 inland. Wind N 10 to 15 mph shifting to NE.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Evening showers. Low 59. High 79.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 89.