11:16AM

The cold front that moved into the region Wednesday night, causing scattered thunderstorms, has hung itself up in far southern New England and will sit there until Saturday morning. This front may result in a few thunderstorms south of Boston today, scattered showers as a wave of low pressure moves along it across southern New England Friday afternoon and evening, and perhaps a shower early Saturday over far southeastern New England before high pressure finally pushes it out of here for the rest of the weekend.

Looking into next week, the large scale pattern over the USA is likely to feature a large ridge of high pressure in the middle of the country. This tries to push hot weather our way at times, but with the jet stream nearby, fronts pass by on a fairly regular basis, so here, we see air mass changes, variable temperatures, and mostly fair weather with episodes of showers and storms, mostly brief.

Details for the next several days for the Boston area…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, warm, and moderately humid. Isolated thunderstorms south of the Mass Pike this afternoon. High 82 to 87. Wind variable to W 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61 to 66. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon. High 72 to 77. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62 to 67. Wind E up to 10 mph becoming N.

SATURDAY: Clearing. High 78 to 83. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

TUESDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

1:44AM

See previous post for discussion…

Updated Boston area forecast…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and hazy. Hot and more humid. High 86 to 91. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and muggy. Low 67 to 72. Wind light SW but gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 81.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

4:07PM

It may not be perfect for everyone’s taste, but there are no prolonged cool/wet spells or prolonged hot/humid spells for this week, which will probably make more people than not happy about the overall pattern.

Thunderstorm threats come in isolated to scattered fashion early this evening (though unlikely), as well as part of  Wednesday night & Thursday as a cold front moves through, otherwise, it’s pretty clear sailing through the weekend.

The details for the Boston area…

THROUGH SUNSET: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Most locations will not see them. Temperature in the 80s. Wind light W to SW…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and moderately humid. Low 63 to 68. Wind light SW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and hazy. Hot and more humid. High 86 to 91. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and muggy. Low 67 to 72. Wind light SW but gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 81.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

6:59AM

Just a quick update before I head to Boston! Happy July 4th!

INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly along and south of the Mass Pike first thing in the morning and again during the afternoon and early evening. Most locations will be rain-free. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

EVENING FIREWORKS: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Humid. Temperatures mostly upper to middle 70s. Light W wind.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70. Wind light SW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

9:23AM

I’m speeding up the timing of things just a touch today, and for this reason, I think most areas north and west of Boston will be OK for fireworks displays tonight, as I think the main threat for storms will be done by around 6PM. This may not be the case in areas to the southeast, however there is still a shot at less activity there as well.

The cold front responsible for the storm threat today is already weakening, and though there is some nice upper air support with a disturbance for storms, the weakening of this front is a negative factor, as is some somewhat stabilized air over southeastern New England, put in place by an onshore flow yesterday. Further, a fairly solid line of storms already moving into western New England will have a stabilizing effect on the air out there, and a fair amount of cloudiness will limit sun over much of the region.

To me, all of this points to earlier showers and storms, less threat of severe weather (though it cannot be ruled out), and not much activity as we move into evening and tonight, except a continued threat over southeastern MA including Cape Cod and the Islands.

What’s left of this front will hang up just south of New England Monday and await a disturbance moving along it early in the morning which may send some showers and storms across southern MA, CT, & RI, and also provide focus for a few showers and storms to pop up during the day, again as mentioned before, the main threat being along and south of the Mass Pike for this activity. The vast majority of the region will be rain-free Monday.

Looking into next week a bit further, high pressure will build along the East Coast Tuesday & Wednesday, with warm to hot July weather, though no excessive heat will occur. A cold front moving through the region on Thursday will trigger showers and thunderstorms. High pressure should return at the end of the week with drier air and great weather for Friday and at least the start of the weekend…

Updated Boston area forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers after 10AM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from noon to around 6PM from Boston north and west, mostly after 2PM in areas to the southeast, with a couple of organized storm lines possible. Any storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Isolated severe storms are possible. Anybody with outside plans should be very alert to the sky and look for approaching storms from the west at any time. Warm and humid. High near 80. Wind S to SW 5 to 15 mph, but variable and gusty near some storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until around 9 or 10PM south of the Mass Pike and especially over far southeastern MA, Cape Cod, & the Islands. Mild and muggy. Low 64 to 69. Wind light W.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly along and south of the Mass Pike first thing in the morning and again during the afternoon and early evening. Most locations will be rain-free. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

8:08PM

We all know how tough it is to get 3 days in a row with no shower or storm threat in the summer. Not going to happen this weekend either. But still, despite the threat of storms Sunday, we are not looking at a washout of a day, and Independence Day itself on Monday looks as if it will be rain-free in most locations.

The fairly “normal” July pattern continues into next week, with no major heat in sight.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Areas of fog inland valley and wetland locations. Becoming humid. Low 62 to 67. Wind light S.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 10AM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from 2PM on with a couple of organized storm lines possible. Any storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Isolated severe storms are possible. Anybody with outside plans should be very alert to the sky and look for approaching storms from the west at any time. Warm and muggy. High 81 to 86.  Wind SW to S 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Becoming partly cloudy but areas of fog late. Mild and muggy. Low 64 to 69. Wind light W.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly along and south of the Mass Pike first thing in the morning and again during the afternoon and early evening. Most locations will be rain-free. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.

11:38AM

The cold air aloft and associated disturbance has wheeled its way southward rather rapidly during the morning and lots of clouds have already popped up across the forecast area. Also adjusting Monday slightly to add a slight chance of a shower or storm in southern MA, but I do not expect major problems and urge you not to cancel any plans. The balance of the Boston area forecast remains as is…

THIS AFTERNOON: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms could contain small hail. High in the upper 70s to near 80. Wind N 10 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind light W.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 80s. Wind W to SW 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low in the upper 60s. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially from 4PM to sunset. High in the middle to upper 80s. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low in the lower 60s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms mainly along and south of the Mass Pike. High in the middle 80s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 87.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 83.

5:26PM

Well, it is upon us. The 2nd holiday weekend of the summer, or the big 4th of July weekend. Even when July 4th is in the middle of the week, we find a way to make a weekend out of it. But this year, it’s a Monday, connected to a weekend, so we don’t face such a major problem now, do we… In fact, since July 1st is a Friday and touches a weekend, we may as well just make it a 4-day weekend! Or even further, if you’re lucky enough to have vacation time, like myself, your weekend is going to be longer than 4 days, perhaps 10? Mine is. 🙂

Anyway, on to the weather. A pool of chilly air aloft has promoted the development of some clouds today, but other than a few sprinkles in the hills well northwest of Boston, it’s been a dry day. As this cool pool exits very slowly Friday, it will still be close enough to allow some clouds to pop up again during the day, with a slight chance of a few showers. High pressure will build along the East Coast over the weekend, allowing warmer and more humid air to flow into New England. But a cold front approaching from the west may set off a few showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. For the holiday itself, Monday, high pressure will dominate with dry and warm weather! A fairly normal July pattern is expected for the balance of next week.

Boston area forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Mostly clear late. Low ranging from the lower 50s over inland valley locations to the lower 60s in the urban centers. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind N 10 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind light W.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 80s. Wind W to SW 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low in the upper 60s. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. High in the middle 80s. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low in the lower 60s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. High in the middle 80s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 87.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 83.

7:19AM

TODAY: Sunny into mid morning. Sun mixed with developing cumulus clouds late morning through afternoon. Slight risk of a sprinkle or light shower mainly over hills of northern Worcester County MA or southwestern NH. High from the middle 70s over higher elevations to lower 80s along the coastal plain. Wind W 10 to 15 mph gusting to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Low ranging from the lower 50s over inland valley areas to the lower 60s in the urban centers. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High in the lower 80s. Wind N around 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 67. High 85.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 67. High 87.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 86.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 67. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 66. High 86.

8:45PM

Low pressure passing north of New England through Wednesday will drag couple fronts and troughs across the region. For this reason, there will be some risk of showers and thunderstorms from late today through late Wednesday afternoon. A pool of cool air aloft will still be nearby on Thursday, so even though I don’t have them in the forecast at this point, there may still be a shower threat, especially over the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH. But overall, a great stretch of weather will be getting underway on Thursday, and will last through the 4th of July weekend! More summery air will dominate the region as July begins, though I do not see any excessive heat at this time.

Here are the details for eastern MA and nearby RI & southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11PM. Patchy fog after 3AM. Low 62 to 67. Wind S up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Patchy fog with scattered showers and thunderstorms until 10AM. Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. High 78 to 83. Wind SW up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 84.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 87.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 84.

6:25PM

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind S under 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon. Partly sunny late afternoon. Mostly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a few drops of light rain falling around sunset. High 78 to 83 except cooler along some coastal areas. Wind S to SE around 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Low 61 to 66. Wind S 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of lingering showers very early morning. Becoming mostly sunny mid morning through early afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy mid afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny late afternoon through early evening. High 75 to 80. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 77 to 82. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY (7-1): Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

SATURDAY (7-2): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY (7-3): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

MONDAY (7-4): Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85.

11:35PM

Tonight, as we get ready to start the week that is the last 4 days of June, the first few days of July, including 4th of July Weekend, I think we’ll just skip over the techno-babble and keep the discussion short, then get to the Boston area forecast for many days…

High pressure means nice weather Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure passes north of us and drags a frontal system across the region with showers/thunderstorms Tuesday night and very early Wednesday. High pressure returns with great summer weather Thursday & Friday as June ends and July begins. The 4th of July Weekend? I’m leaning in the direction of warm and more humid weather, not excessively hot, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, but no widespread rain. We will have to watch a frontal system to the north, however.

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Low 58 to 63. Wind W under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny with a very slight risk of an isolated brief shower. High 79 to 84. Wind W up to 10 mph shifting to S by late afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind S under 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon. Partly sunny late afternoon. Mostly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a few drops of light rain falling around sunset. High 78 to 83 except cooler along some coastal areas. Wind S to SE around 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Low 61 to 66. Wind S 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of lingering showers very early morning. Becoming mostly sunny mid morning through early afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy mid afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny late afternoon through early evening. High 75 to 80. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 77 to 82. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY (7-1): Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

SATURDAY (7-2): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY (7-3): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

MONDAY (7-4): Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85.

1:38PM

I think the fact that the clouds and cool air are so stubborn here in eastern New England may prevent showers and storms from reaching most areas at least through the early evening. The atmosphere cannot destabilize now that one disturbance is gone, another is yet to arrive, and we don’t have very much sun.

The rest of this message is a copy/edit of the previous forecast:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy to partly sunny. Temperatures holding in the 60s, coolest near the shore. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms until midnight, then breaking clouds. Low 60 to 65. Wind variable to W around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W to N 5 to 15 mph but some local coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 64. High 83.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

8:29AM

A cluster of thunderstorms is moving through eastern MA and coastal NH this morning and will be moving offshore late this morning. A cold front moving through the region later today into tonight will trigger additional showers and storms, possibly with the help of some sunshine that is expected to break out by midday in some locations.

Updated Boston area forecast…

SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle along with scattered thunderstorms through mid morning. Partly sunny late morning into afternoon but developing scattered showers and thunderstorms especially mid to late afternoon. High 70 to 75. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Partial clearing late. Low 60 to 65. Wind variable to W around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W to N 5 to 15 mph but some local coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 64. High 83.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

7:31PM

A flow of air off the Atlantic has kept us cool, cloudy, and drizzly much of the day and this will keep big thunderstorms from firing up and moving into the region this evening, as they may very well have done if we were not in this air mass. Showers should hold off in most locations of eastern MA until after 10PM. Before then, there will be some areas of fog and drizzle, under an overcast sky.

What’s up this weekend? I think we try to break out a little on Saturday but any sun that does burn through the clouds would just destabilize the atmosphere and allow showers and storms to fire up. Also, a couple fronts and troughs moving through will provide lift for shower activity even without sun. I don’t expect a washout, but not the best day. By Sunday, high pressure building overhead should allow for more sunshine and warmer air.

A peek at next week: Summer!

Boston area forecast details…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle at any time. Showers mainly after 10PM. Slight chance of a thunderstorm after midnight. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle along with isolated showers through mid morning. Partly sunny late morning into afternoon but developing scattered showers and thunderstorms especially mid to late afternoon. High 70 to 75. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Partial clearing late. Low 60 to 65. Wind variable to W around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W to N 5 to 15 mph but some local coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 64. High 83.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.