8:44PM

Though the temperatures have come way down from their record levels of last week and it now feels more like the month that it is, continued drier than normal weather will keep fire danger high during the next few days. A gusty wind through Tuesday afternoon will not help. A low pressure area will bring clouds and a chance of a little wet weather at midweek but this doesn’t look important. It may be cold enough as the system departs on Thursday for a few snow showers mixed in with rain showers. A similar system may sneak through southern New England on Saturday, at least serving to reinforce some cool air over the weekend. This pattern may continue into next week as well, and even though some of the longer range models have hinted at snow chances, it is simply too early to be sure if those chances will become reality. Something to watch, as snow can easily happen in New England during the Spring, regardless of what the winter has been like.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low from the upper 10s to upper 20s, coldest low lying areas away from the city. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, dropping off to below 10 MPH over inland valley areas.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 30-35 but some upper 20s inland valleys. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. High 45-50. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: AM rain/snow showers. Low 33. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 28. High 49.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 33. High 46.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 46.

8:44PM

The warm summer days of March are a memory. 😉

It’s back to reality for the week ahead. High pressure builds in Monday through Tuesday with dry, breezy, and chilly weather. A warm front will approach on Wednesday bringing clouds. Low pressure crossing the region Thursday will bring some unsettled weather. At this time it looks like it will be mild enough for rain, but some mixed precipitation cannot be completely ruled out at this point. This system will be beyond the region by the end of the week which will turn dry and seasonable.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy through midnight. Clearing overnight. Low 35-40. Wind NE under 10 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 48.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/mix. Low 32. High 43.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 51.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 56.

9:21AM

Updated Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light rain or drizzle through early afternoon. High 45-50. Wind E around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early then slow clearing overnight. Areas of fog. Low 35-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 26. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 46.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

5:23PM

Updated Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Slight chance of light rain before midnight especially north of the Mass Pike. Chance of light rain all areas after midnight. Areas of fog. Low 40-45. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of light rain, favoring southern MA and RI through mid afternoon. High 45-50. Wind E around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early then slow clearing overnight. Areas of fog. Low 35-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 26. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 46.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

4:20PM

The weather this weekend will present itself in a more typical March fashion, mostly grey and cool. This will be due to high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south of  Southern New England. It looks like the bulk of the rainfall associated with the low pressure area will remain south of the region, which is not really great news, as we have been quite dry and fire danger has responded by reaching very high levels. This problem will likely become more prominent as much of next week also looks dry. The difference between recent and upcoming days will be that the extremely warm pattern will be gone, replaced by somewhat more seasonable temperatures.

Forecast for RI, southern NH, and eastern MA…

TONIGHT: Clouds moving in from northwest to southeast. Low 38-43. Wind N around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. High 54-59 by noon before falling slowly. Wind  shifting to E around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and a chance of light rain after midnight. Low 40-45. Wind E around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of light fog and a chance of light rain mainly during the morning. High 45-50. Wind E 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds & sun, windy. Low 35. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, windy. Low 27. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & high clouds. Low 22. High 50.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy, windy. Low 30. High 50.

3:26AM

We are heading into the land of “This Is More Like It!” …

There are no major changes to the previous forecast regarding today, the weekend, and the first half of next week. Gone is the record warmth, and after a mild day today, the weekend will be much cooler, as will a couple days early next week. The only wet weather should be Sunday as low pressure develops south of the region. Otherwise, high pressure will be the dominant force, maintaining a mostly dry pattern. This increases fire danger in the region.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sunshine develops from north to south. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 40-45 except 30s in the valleys. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. High 55-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers. High 45-50. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 47.

3:35PM

The remarkably warm pattern is about to break down, and be replaced by a weather pattern more typical of March. Yes, it’s true.

Before this happens, one more Summery day will occur Thursday, with high temperatures going over 80 degrees in most locations in southern New England, the exception being in a few coastal spots where a westerly wind passes over cooler water first (parts of Cape Cod, for example). Yesterday, I described how a city like Concord NH can approach or even reach 90 in this set-up. Today, I will make a forecast high temp for Concord NH, and I expected them to fall shy of the big nine-O, topping out at 88. I’ll give Boston 85, Bedford MA 86, Taunton MA the same. And stubbornly, I’ll leave a very slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast for areas south of the Mass Pike where I still believe a boundary may set up for a time during the afternoon. This may prove to be a complete non-event, but I’ll leave it there. I’d rather forecast a pop up storm and have it not take place rather than not forecast it and be surprised.

Friday: Transition day. A cold front will have passed in the early morning hours, and though it will still be a very mild day for March, you’ll notice a significant cool-down compared to Thursday, as a northerly wind blows.

The weekend: The cooling trend will continue, and as high pressure builds to the north and low pressure develops to the south, expect it to eventually turn unsettled. Sunday may turn out to be a wet day, and with enough cold air around at night, some areas may even see some showers of mixed precipitation and snow.

The early part of next week looks drier and chilly for southern New England as a storm slowly moves into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Beyond this, a somewhat active, cooler pattern may become established, though it does not look like we see any major precipitation-producers for a while. Because of this, the low-moisture problem will persist, and outdoor fire danger will be running high.

Forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING: Sunshine. Temperature in the 70s except 60s some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the middle 40s inland valleys to middle 50s coastline. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny except some building clouds south of the Mass Pike with an isolated thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. High from the middle 70s Cape Cod to 80s most areas (see above for a few specifics). Wind WSW over far southern areas, WNW elsewhere, 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds moving in from north to south. Slight chance of a rain shower mainly north of Boston. Low 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy early then partly to mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 40. High 55.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain during the day and rain or snow showers later at night. Low 35. High 45.

MONDAY: Clearing. Low 30. High 47.

TUESDAY: Sunny then variably cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 46.

3:56PM

Well here we go, 2 more very warm days coming, Wednesday & Thursday, as high pressure builds right over the region. High temperatures both days in most areas will be 80+. Concord NH has a chance of a 90 on Thursday thanks to a down-sloping WNW wind off the mountains, which compresses and warms. Let’s see if they can make it…

Again, the only precipitation threat comes as a very slight risk of isolated thunderstorms south of the Mass Pike on Thursday with some minor convergence of warm/dry air and warm/slightly moist air in the region. This is a very low probability but I still feel it is worth a mention.

A cold front comes through from the north Friday but without much fanfare. Temperatures begin their downward trend on this day.

The weekend will turn cloudier and much cooler and probably eventually unsettled with low pressure developing to the south and high pressure building to the north.

This should be beyond the region by early next week which will probably be dry and cool.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING: Sunshine. Temperature ranging from the 60s coast to near 80 some inland areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except areas of fog inland valleys. Low 45-55, coolest interior valleys. Wind near calm to light SW.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High around 80, cooler in some immediate coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 50-60, coolest interior areas, mildest at the coast. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Only a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms south of the Mass Pike in the afternoon. High in the upper 70s to middle 80s, a few upper 80s possible interior valleys. Wind WNW 10-15 MPH except WSW near the South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers day, rain or snow showers night. Low 35. High 45.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 49.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 46.

5:49PM

Too many of these previews and once the real thing gets here we’ll already be bored with it (well maybe not everybody).

After another very warm day in much of the region, a back-door cold front has arrived to drop temperatures in east coastal areas of southern New England. Boston, as of 5PM, has seen a temperature drop of 20 degrees from its high of 74, down to 54. The boundary has pushed inland some, with temperatures cooling down there as well from highs in the 70s and lower 80s, the 2nd day in the current stretch of this preview of summer. And other than this minor interruption this evening and early tomorrow in eastern sections, we’ll get right back to the warmth again by later Tuesday and certainly for Wednesday-Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. The warmest day does now appear that it will be Thursday as all areas should have a land breeze. Many locations will be around 80 on Wednesday and most will surpass it on Thursday. One item of note for Thursday, a southwest wind coming across Long Island Sound, where relatively cooler water is, may create enough of a boundary in parts of RI and southeastern MA including Cape Cod to fire off some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. It is a low probability, but should not be ignored.

By Friday, a cold front from the north will introduce cooler air, which will continue to be reinforced through the weekend. We’ll have to watch some unsettled weather approaching from the west as well over the weekend, which will certainly not be as grand as the next few days. But after all, it is March, and eventually normalcy will try to return. Looking ahead, at least the first half of next week looks much cooler than this week will be.

And the current weather pattern rendering the following information pretty much unimportant, but Spring begins Tuesday morning at 1:14AM, the Vernal Equinox, when the sun is directly over the Equator on its trip into the northern hemisphere.

Forecast for southern NH, RI, and eastern MA…

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog forming. Low 40-45 except 45-50 interior higher elevations of RI and areas southwest of Boston in MA. Wind nearly calm except light E nearer the shoreline early.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with patchy fog dissipating during the morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High reaching the middle 70s inland ranging down to the lower and middle 60s nearer the shoreline, some 50s on Cape Cod. Wind nearly calm to start then S up to 10 MPH in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low middle 40s inland valleys to lower 50s most areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High from the middle 70s to lower 80s, warmest inland locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but local sea breezes near the shore.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southern areas late day. Low 54. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 63.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 35. High 54.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the day, rain or snow showers at night. Low 35. High 46.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Low 30. High 52.

10:36PM

Record high temperatures Sunday. More records may fall before the coming week is done.  A ridge of high pressure dominating the East Coast will promote mostly dry and warm weather for much of the coming week. But eastern New England will have a slight interruption today thanks to a back door cold front sliding across the region. This will introduce an onshore wind to many coastal areas which will keep temperatures down. Tuesday-Thursday, high pressure will build aloft and at the surface, and by Wednesday and Thursday temperatures more fitting of early summer will be with us. A frontal system should introduce slightly cooler air by Friday, and this step-down may continue over the weekend. It is too early to tell how chilly next weekend will get, or how substantial any unsettled weather will be, so regarding next weekend, my forecast will be general and of low confidence.

Important note: With the lack of precipitation, lots of sunshine, and lack of vegetation at this point, the fire danger will be quite high during the coming week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear but areas of ground fog. Low from the upper 30s inland valleys to near 50 at the coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. High from near 55 coast to near 65 inland but cooling back to the upper 40s coast and 50s inland by late afternoon. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Areas of fog. Low 40-45. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clearing. High 65-70 coast before dropping back in the afternoon, 70-75 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 77.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 52. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 55.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

12:00PM

Hi all! No discussion here, just a fast forecast update to bring things up to date. You’ll notice a few minor changes from the previous, but nothing major.

Full discussion for the week ahead coming later today or early this evening!

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. High near 70 except cooler on portions of the irregular coast where wind passes over water first. Wind W up to 10 MPH, possibly 15 MPH coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Low from the middle 30s in low lying areas away from the city and coast to the upper 40s in urban and coastal areas. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. High from near 55 coast to near 65 inland but cooling back to the upper 40s coast and 50s inland by late afternoon. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Areas of fog. Low 40-45. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clearing. High 65-70 coast before dropping back in the afternoon, 70-75 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 77.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 52. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 71.

8:49PM

It looks like we do not have any more precipitation to talk about during the next several days (through the middle of next week anyway) as a large ridge of high pressure builds across the East Coast. Temperatures will warm a little bit for Saturday (50s most areas), but should be much warmer Sunday with a land breeze taking over most locations. Slightly cooler weather Monday will result from a weak back-door cold front, but this front will not be as interrupting as the recent bout, and by Tuesday into midweek most areas will be much warmer. We’ll still have to watch for a coastal sea breeze on Tuesday. If one day is going to be warm everywhere, even at the coast, it appears that Wednesday would be the day. By the end of next week, a trend toward unsettled weather may be the first signal of a new weather pattern. More on that in future blogs.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Low 36-41. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog early, then becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 53-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of fog mainly over inland valleys, swamps, and bogs. Low from near 32 inland valleys to the lower 40s along the coast. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 66-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 62.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 68 except cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 76.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 53. High 72.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 55. high 63.

4:02PM

No, I wasn’t hiding from my bad forecast yesterday, though I felt like it. I fell victim to something I have before but on occasion have noticed. This time it escaped me. I did expect a back-door front to move in late yesterday, NOT in the wee hours of the morning. What accelerated this process? The answer lies in the thunderstorms that went through in the hours just before the marine air came plowing into eastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. As those thunderstorms moved offshore and weakened, they became ruled by downdrafts, or downward moving air. Once this air reaches the surface (land, ocean), it spreads out. There was a sufficient amount of this to basically create a new boundary of maritime air, which invaded in the pre-dawn hours. This resulted in my missing daytime temperatures by 15 to 20 degrees in some cases, and of course the sky in eastern areas was basically overcast all day, not the at least partly sunny that I had been expecting. Once again, owned by Mother Nature.

Onward…

The ocean is showing us how it can be in control even today as much of the region has been stuck in the cool maritime air with lots of clouds dominating.  This stays with us through tonight, and wet weather becomes involved as a disturbance from the west moves through the region in 2 parts tonight and on Friday. The first is pretty much in the area already, with some showers spreading across parts of north central and eastern MA as of 4PM, and these will be around through early evening possibly even mixed with a few pellets of sleet. More numerous showers will be around on Friday. All of this will be offshore by Saturday but just enough troughing overhead may result in some lingering clouds for at least part of the day. By Sunday, and much of next week, a high pressure ridge building over the Northeast will mean fair weather, and a warming trend. Temperatures of 70 or higher are possible in many areas by Tuesday through midweek, but the coastal areas will be a wildcard, as a relatively weak gradient may allow seabreezes to develop at least a couple of the days. Because of this, temperature forecasts for next week are not with high confidence.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH SUNSET: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possibly mixed with sleet crossing parts of eastern MA then diminishing. Temperature near 40. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle and a slight chance of rain showers. Low 33-38. Wind E up to 10 MPH diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY:  Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle early. Rain showers likely throughout the day. High 45-50. Wind calm then becoming S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas fog in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 39-44. Wind light variable becoming N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 51-56. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 67, probably cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 72, probably cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 75, possibly cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 78, possibly cooler coast.

7:41AM

Clouds dominate through Friday, cool and raw especially near the coast today, showers Friday, improving this weekend, warm next week!

Full update this afternoon…

11:18PM

A cold front will cross southern New England overnight with scattered showers and thunderstorms as warm air in place begins to be pushed out of the way by cooler air advancing from the northwest. High pressure building north of the region later Wednesday through Thursday will eventually turn winds onshore and bring much cooler air into the region. This will continue into Friday, when another disturbance may bring some unsettled weather. The last of this disturbance will move offshore Saturday, and then we’ll enter a period of tranquil and warmer weather for the first few days of next week, as a large ridge of high pressure builds. We may be seeing some very warm air once again before too long, but the warmest of it may be delayed until the middle or end of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with storms most likely in areas along and north of the Mass Pike. Some storms will contain briefly gusty winds and very heavy rain. Low 45-50. Wind W under 10 MPH except briefly variable and gusty near storms.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & clouds mixed. Isolated rain showers possibly early morning and late afternoon. A bank of fog and area of low clouds may move into coastal areas before sunset. High 55-60 except lower 60s some inland areas before dropping through the 50s late day. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to NE late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and rain showers. Low 38. High 43.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. Low 38. High 57.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 63.