5:30 PM

For a discussion about this week, go back 2 posts, as nothing has really changed in my thinking.

TUESDAY: Dense fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms pushing through from west to east between 10AM & 1PM, then a few periods of rain through mid afternoon. High near 60 early, then temperature cooling through the 50s into the 40s by late in the afternoon. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts, shifting to W by early afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 50 to 55. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow especially inland higher elevations. Low 32 to 37. Wind N 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. High 45 to 50. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind N to NE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late in the day or at night. High 45 to 50. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: AM rain. PM clearing. Low 38. High 54.

SUNDAY: AM sun. PM clouds, late day showers. Low 41. High 56.

For any of you interested in looking at model data (NAM, GFS, RUC, etc.) through NCEP, in case you were unaware, their web page is being taken offline tomorrow and being replaced with a new, easier to use version. I’ve tried it out and generally like it. In case you have not been there, you can find it here:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

Good luck!

The sun has just set on a cool, breezy first weekend of April, which of course followed some late season snow. What do we have to look forward to for the first full week of April? Activity. I don’t see anymore late season snowstorms at the moment, but we will be looking at a fairly active pattern, as a fast-flowing jet stream sends several systems our way. As mentioned yesterday, the timing can be hard to pin down with this pattern, and I am going to try my best to get it close on this shot. Based on that thinking, I’ll be diverging from some of the guidance, applying my own ideas on movement of systems, and therefore influencing the forecast details.

Highlights…

Warm front rain Monday, shot of warm air at night.

Showers & possible thunderstorms with a cold front Tuesday.

Ripple of low pressure brings clouds and a shower threat by late Wednesday, and we may even see some surprise wet snow from this system at night.

High pressure to the north delays clearing Thursday, and approaching warm front holds clouds in on Friday, but hopefully rain stays away until after the Red Sox Home Opener against the Yankees.

Weekend starts damp and ends damp, with a dry interlude between.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph early, diminishing to calm.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, may begin as brief sleet and/or snow early. Embedded thunderstorms may track west to east across northern MA & southern NH during the afternoon. Temperature slowly climbing into and through the 40s. Wind SE 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Temperature rising into the 50s. Wind S to SW increasing to 15 to 25 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms pushing west to east across the region between mid morning and early afternoon. Lingering scattered showers possible afterward. High 60 to 65 early, then temperature cooling through the 50s. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts, shifting to W by early afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 50 to 55. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow especially inland higher elevations. Low 32 to 37. Wind N 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. High 45 to 50. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind N to NE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late in the day or at night. High 45 to 50. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: AM rain. PM clearing. Low 38. High 54.

SUNDAY: AM sun. PM clouds, late day showers. Low 41. High 56.

2:30 AM

No big changes in the previous discussion. Just posting an updated Boston Area Forecast. Have a great Sunday everyone!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 mph early, becoming calm around midnight, then SE under 10 mph toward dawn.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light snow, sleet, and rain in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind SE increasing to 10 to 20 mph, higher gusts especially along the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the upper 40s into the 50s, possibly reaching 60 in some areas. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers and possible thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon with some lingering rain possible mainly to the south of Boston. Temperature falling through the 50s. Wind SW to W 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts in the morning, W to N 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY: AM sunshine. PM clouds. Low near 35. High near 52.

THURSDAY: Periods of rain possible. Low near 40. High near 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low near 34. High near 48.

1:00 PM

As the snow (where there is still some) from our April Fools snowfall melts this weekend, it will do so as a gusty west to northwest wind blows between our departed storm over the Canadian Maritimes and a high pressure area sliding across the US East Coast. We will see mostly dry weather though, with just a fair amount of clouds and a few scattered instability rain or snow showers this afternoon. Sunday will be sunnier day.

An active April pattern will continue, however, next week. Expect at least a couple of system to cross the region with unsettled weather. Although the models will have trouble pinning down the timing. Best bets at the moment are to expect rain ahead of a warm front Monday, showers with a cold front Tuesday, and another low pressure system bringing a chance of some wet weather around Thursday.

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered rain showers except rain or snow showers over higher elevations. High 49 to 54 but temperatures can drop several degrees quickly under any showers. Wind W 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Clear late. Low 30 to 35. Wind W 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 mph early, becoming calm around midnight, then SE under 10 mph toward dawn.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light snow, sleet, and rain in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind SE increasing to 10 to 20 mph, higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY: Rain showers likely. Low near 40. High near 55.

WEDNESDAY: AM sunshine. PM clouds. Low near 35. High near 50.

THURSDAY: Periods of rain possible. Low near 40. High near 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low near 35. High near 50.

5.0 inches of snow in Woburn last night & this morning. Happy April Fools Day!

Meanwhile, Sox have just started their season in Texas, under a partly cloudy sky with a game time temperature of 90!

Not doing a full forecast update right now as I’m heading out the door, so basically what follows is a copy/paste of the previous forecast, as I don’t see any reason to make big changes right now, and I’m uncertain how things are going to time-out after the weekend anyway. I will re-examine the upcoming weather and post a new forecast by tomorrow morning. Have a great weekend everybody!

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers early, then partly cloudy late. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45 to 5o. Wind NW to W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day rain. High in the 50s.

TUESDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. High in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. High in the 40s.

On this date 14 years ago, it was snowing. Hard. A lot of snow. Over 25 inches in Boston, 30 inches here in my hometown of Woburn MA. The April Fools Blizzard as it is known, was well underway, having started out as a rainstorm on Monday March 31. Though a different setup than the one we have today, there were some similarities, in that cold air being brought down from above helped to initially turn the rain to snow. But that was a much more dynamic, powerful storm system. This one won’t reach those levels, or anything close to that, until it is well beyond the region, heading for the Maritimes of  Canada, which stand to get quite a punch of snow & wind. Even parts of eastern NH & Maine will get a good hit of snow & wind from this, with over a foot in some areas.

Instead of going further into a discussion of the structure of today’s storm and why it’s doing what it is, I’ll just state that it all should be winding down as we go through the afternoon & evening, with all the heaviest precipitation, mainly snow from Boston north & west, with a mix to the south, and some rain toward the Cape. Many of these areas of southeastern MA & parts of RI already saw 2 to 4 inches of snow during last evening. As far as amounts go for the remainder of the area, there really isn’t any change to what I posted on the previous blog, so you can go there to see the breakdown.

What’s coming up? Our storm will be spinning about in eastern Canada this weekend, bringing drier air into our region, along with gusty winds and cool, but tolerable temperatures. Some clouds will be around Saturday, and Sunday should be the sunnier of the 2 weekend days. Looking into next week, another unsettled period of weather is expected from later Monday through Tuesday, with some threat for rain, showers, and even the potential for thunderstorms by Tuesday. This will be from a warmer system tracking to the northwest of the Boston area. It is unclear whether or not there will be additional storminess at midweek. This being many days away, I’ll just keep an eye on it and update as it gets closer.

Forecast details for the Boston area…

TODAY: Overcast in the morning with snow, heavy at times, through about 9AM from Metro Boston northward, lighter snow & rain showers to the south. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers of mostly snow and some mix/rain (to the south) in the afternoon. High 35 to 40. Wind N to NW 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45 to 5o. Wind NW to W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day rain. High in the 50s.

TUESDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. High in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. High in the 40s.

5:35PM

Hi all! Our storm will be getting underway this evening, and already has in some areas with some snow/mix falling, especially along and southeast of I-95. This area will expand and intensify during this evening, leading to heaviest precipitation sometime after 10pm, and especially after midnight, until sometime shortly before dawn.

As I have been worried about all along, it appears the intensity of the precipitation and the time of occurrence will be enough to produce some significant snow in much of the area from near Boston, west and north. There is still some uncertainty of where a rain/snow line sets up and oscillates, so amounts I am about to forecast are still subject to change. Here is what I expect from this system, snowfall-wise, through Friday.

Cape Cod & Islands: Nothing (rain) except perhaps a dusting of light snow Friday afternoon.

SE MA: Around 1 inch.

Immediate Boston Area: 1-3 inches with potentially a little more just NW of the city.

I-95 corridor: 2-6 inches with a very slight chance of isolated heavier amounts along and just NW of I-95.

495 belt south of the Mass Pike: 2-6 inches.

495 belt north of the Mass Pike including Worcester Hills: 6-10 inches with locally around a foot in the higher elevations.

NH Seacoast: 2-6 inches, lowest along the immediate shoreline.

Inland southern NH: 4-8 inches except 6-10 inches in the higher elevations of SW NH.

Lakes Region NH: 6-12 inches.

Be back later with a full forecast including an update on this storm and a look at the first weekend of April and beyond. Have a safe evening!

12:55 AM

Call me stubborn. I’m still not convinced this thing goes just like the TV guys say. So once again, not making major changes and not giving final amounts until later this afternoon…

TODAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light rain or snow in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Steadier rain/snow developing, becoming heavier especially after midnight, most snow along and NW of the I-95 corridor, with more rain to the SE. A few inches of snow likely NW of I-95 with less to the SE, and very little south of Boston. Low 33 to 38. Wind E increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Overcast & stormy with rain and/or snow, possibly heavy at times. Several additional inches of snow accumulation occur where precipitation remains mostly snow, greatest chance of this will be inland and higher elevations. Temperature holding 33 to 38 but may fall slightly during the day.  Wind NE 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers tapering off. Low 25 to 30. Wind N 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. High in the lower 40s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. High in the upper 40s.

12:00 AM

Well, well. Seems our old friend winter is returning for a late visit. After a couple of cold & dry March days, the month will wind-up with a dry & milder Wednesday followed by a cloudy & colder Thursday.  Thursday’s clouds will be from an initial low pressure system passing just south of New England. Some light rain and/or snow may reach the South Coast from this system, but nothing major will occur. As we flip the calendar to April, it seems mother nature will deal us a prank for April Fools Day, in the form of a late-season winter storm!

There is much to be determined with Friday’s storm system, including precipitation type, amount, and coastal flooding impact. It is looking more and more like this storm system will feature snow versus rain for a good part of the area, but some rain is likely, at least in the early stages of the storm. Though not a tremendous amount of cold air will be around as the storm arrives, these storms can and often do make their own cold air, dragging it down from above, in a process called “dynamic cooling”. There should be plenty of moisture available for precipitation.

The next update will have a bit more detail, as I want to step slowly into trying to detail the impact of this event. For now, here’s an updated Boston area forecast!

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45 to 50. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35 to 40. Wind S under 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain or mixed snow/rain developing from south to north. Low 33 to 38. Wind E increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Overcast & stormy with rain and/or snow, possibly heavy at times. Several inches of snow accumulation occur where precipitation remains mostly snow, greatest chance of this will be inland and higher elevations. Temperature holding 33 to 38 but may fall slightly during the day.  Wind NE 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. High in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. High in the 40s.

12:30 AM

Not a lot of change from the last discussion, so today we’ll just post up a new local forecast and look things over again as we get closer to potential rain & snow as the new month begins… Still way too early for any details on the late week storm threat. Models continue to be all over the place and in this case I find it better to just stick with the same wording, as there is plenty of time to work things out.

Forecast details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain or snow. High 35-45.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. High in the 40s.

9:30PM

After a dry & chilly weekend that felt more like mid February than late March, it is time to take a look at what is expected during the coming week in the Boston area.

As expected, the medium range computer models are “all over the place”. They have a general idea of how the pattern is going to go during the next 7 days, but can’t agree on the details, even run-to-run with the same model. This can be a forecasters nightmare, but not necessarily. I’ve always found that the best approach to this situation is to not change much in the thinking you were forming when the models were a bit more stable. Also, drawing upon experience, having seen this setup before, can be helpful. With this in mind, I’m making only minor adjustments again to the outlook.

Summary… Look for a dry & chilly end to March during the next 4 days, thanks to low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure over central Canada, not moving all that much, and feeding polar air into the region. A couple disturbances passing by from time to time will only produce clouds. One such disturbance is expected to move through tomorrow afternoon. The first attempt at the southern jet stream sending a storm this way will likely be thwarted by this northwesterly flow of dry air at midweek, as one stormo passes south of New England.  But as steering currents begin to bend around and the setup in Canada weakens, April should open with a bout of storminess sometime during the first 3 days of the month (we hinted at this last week as a potential period of stormy weather). It is still uncertain what type of precipitation will occur with this system, so I will be vague in my wording for now, and we’ll keep a close eye on the developing situation during the next few days.

Detailed forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 23 to 28. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 43 to 48. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Chance of rain and snow. Highs 35-45.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. High in the 40s.

See if you can pick out ice-covered Lake Winnipesaukee in NH…

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

2:15 PM

Good afternoon everyone! A brisk, chilly late March day out there. Temperatures holding in the 30s along with a gusty W to NW breeze means wind chills dip into the upper 20s at times!

There is not much in the way of change in how things look over the next few days. Low pressure traveling well south of the area tomorrow may present a shield of high clouds across the southern sky, possibly enough to filter the sun at times. Otherwise, a dry and chilly pattern will last into the beginning of the week. As we get to midweek, moderating temperatures seem fairly certain. What is uncertain is the timing & track of a low pressure system approaching from the southwest. There are vast differences in the medium range guidance, but given the emergence of a split flow pattern – seperate northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams, the models will have a little difficulty with timing and phasing, or lack thereof, of the jet streams. History has shown me that a certain computer model (The European, or ECMWF), performs better, than the GFS. My forecast will be influenced more by that model, when it comes to potential events at the middle of the coming week. With this in mind, we will introduce increasing clouds to Wednesday’s forecast and precipitation to Thursday’s. I say precipitation, because there is about an equal risk of rain or snow, or a combination of the 2, and this far out from the event, it’s too early to say with any confidence which kind may dominate in the Boston area.

Forecast details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Sunshine may be dimmed by high cloudiness at times. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind W under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind W 10 to 20 mph shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. High in the middle 40s.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain or snow. High 35-45.

EARLY DAYS OF APRIL: More frequent storminess with variable temperatures, averaging a little closer to normal.

4:50PM

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible in Essex and eastern Middlesex Counties before midnight. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 35 to 40. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Sunshine may be dimmed by high cloudiness at times. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. High in the upper 30s.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High in the upper 40s.

QUICK PEEK: Unsettled weather more likely during the first several days of April.