Hi faithful blog readers! I’m going to keep this relatively short, because there is not a great deal of change in the thinking I expressed on the previous blog entry. As expected, the computer models waiver back and forth one way and another way with the storm track and precipitation/snow amounts regarding the developing storm. Sparing you the technical psychobabble, what I will say is that I still feel that the fast-movement of this storm and the fact I believe the models are overdoing the precipitation amounts, I am going to keep my snow totals a bit lower than the ones you’ll see on TV. I have bumped them up a touch since the last update to 6-12 inches for most of the Boston area. There is a slight chance that a few spot heavier amounts can occur underneath very heavy snowbands as a deepening storm passes just southeast of Cape Cod. This may also result in thundersnow (a few flashes of lightning & muffled thunder rumbles during the heaviest snow Wednesday morning).

The timeframe for this storm: Snow starts 3am Wednesday, plus or minus 2 hours, and ends 9pm Wednesday,  plus or minus 2 hours. The heaviest snow should fall during the morning. Mixing and some rain should be confined to the Cape & Islands, and possibly the immediate coast to the south of  Boston, due to warmer air off the ocean. Elsewhere, colder air should support mainly snow.

Look for updates tomorrow as we get closer to the event.

By most standards this will be a fairly simple week of weather, as the early and late parts of it will be mainly dry and chilly. It’s the middle part that gets tricky, as a storm will be chugging our way from the southwest.

As is often the case, we’ll be dealing with a few pieces of energy coming together to form a new storm along the coast at midweek, the track of which will ultimately determine what happens in the Boston area. In the midst of conflicting model data tonight, I’ve come up with a best-guess solution that will take a developing storm from the Mid Atlantic Coast Tuesday night to just southeast of Cape Cod by Wednesday morning. This system will have alot of energy with it and a very strong slug of moisture, but should be moving along rather progressively. Some mixing due to warmer air at the surface from the ocean may get involved along the coast mainly south of Boston, and especially over Cape Cod.

With all of this in mind, expect snow to begin in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday, be heaviest during Wednesday morning, then slowly taper off through the remainder of the day. Due to the progression of this system, and the fact that I think the precipitation may be somewhat overforecast by the computers, I’ll start out by predicting a widespread 5 to 10 inches of snow for a good swath of eastern MA including Boston, with lesser amounts especially along the coast as you head south, dropping down to 1 to 3 inches over Cape Cod, where wetter snow & a period of rain will likely occur.

Behind this system, the 2nd half of the week looks dry & rather cold.

Looking well out into the future, a system may bring some snow showers Sunday, and provide at least a chance of some flakes in the air for the Patriots / Jets playoff game. It’s a long way off but we’ll see how it goes as we get closer.

There are signs of a more significant outbreak of cold air near or just after MLK Jr. Day.

We continue to be in a complex weather pattern thanks to continued blocking. The computer models continue to have their issues resolving events in this weather pattern. What started out looking like something that may have been similar to the recent snowstorm has evolved into looking like something far less impressive as the model runs have gone by.

This still is a fascinating setup, from a meteorological perspective, however, as we’ll be watching several areas of low pressure and a trough connecting 2 of the main low pressure areas (a norlun trough) all producing areas of snow that will be around the area Friday through early Sunday. Even with this complexity, when it comes right down to the details of what you see, it may be that any given area  just sees a few periods of snow over this time, not amounting to all that much.

Complex pattern … Simple result? That’s weather.

Breaking it all down, the best guess as to what is going to happen in the Boston Area and southern NH is that elements of ocean-effect snow will break out mainly from Boston north during the day Friday, with some accumulation most likely in the North Shore area of MA westward across the MA/NH border. Another area of snow, associated with the trough  mentioned above, will be lifting slowly northeastward into southwestern New England, but may be weakening as it finally reaches eastern MA at night. Some accumulation is still possible from this area of snow. Finally, one of the low pressure areas offshore may intensify enough to throw yet another area of snow into parts of eastern MA, this one favoring the Boston area southward, during Saturday night. After all of this, a generalized 1 to 4 inches of snow can be expected, none of it coming too quickly, and none of it accompained by strong winds or anything similar to the recent storm.

I will watch the evolution of all of this and update by late Friday.

After 11 months of above normal temperatures in Boston (January-November), making 2010 Boston’s warmest year on record, it appears we have reversed the trend. December 2010 was the only month of the year to average colder than normal, and thanks to a major snowstorm on December 26-27, snowfall for the month ended up above normal.

Looking ahead into the first couple weeks of the New Year, January 2011, despite starting with a mild New Year’s Weekend, is heading into colder territory once again. All the best indicators point to below normal temperatures during the next 10 days to 2 weeks. This is the result of a blocking pattern continuing to be the dominant force in driving our weather here. To refresh, this blocking pattern features a stubborn area of high pressure over Greenland, occasionally expanding into northeastern and east central Canada. This blocks cold air crossing Canada from moving eastward, and forces it southward into the US. In response to the high pressure area to the north, a low pressure trough is carved out over the eastern US, and though it oscillates and occasionally lifts out, its dominance is responsible for the chilly & sometimes stormy weather that the East Coast states have been enduring.

It appears that this general pattern is not about to go anywhere, and can be expected into the middle of January.  This should also result in a few more winter storm threats during the next couple of weeks. The next threat in the pipeline comes to our area by the end of this week, when there is some significant potential for accumulating snow. With a few days to go before this potential event, the best guess on a timeframe for a snow threat will be later Friday & Saturday. Computer models continue to show several possible scenarios, as is expected when the threat is still several days away. There are indications that whatever storm does evolve may be slow-moving for a time, making the potential significant for a longer-lasting event. This will be fine-tuned over the next few days and you can follow the developments in future blog entries.

In the shorter term, after a bright & chilly Monday, expected a slightly milder but also somewhat cloudier Tuesday, a result of milder air moving in mainly aloft. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night & early Wednesday, and may produce a few snow showers as colder air gets reinforced for midweek. This will set the stage for the potential late week winter storm.

Happy New Year to all of you!

You’ll notice almost a hint of spring in the air during the final day of 2010 & the first day of 2011. This will be due to a high pressure ridge and associated mild air over New England, somewhat of a readjustment of the pattern in the wake of the big winter storm of a few days ago.

But will this milder weather last? It does not appear so. Most reliable indicators point to a rapid return to the pattern we have been in during recent weeks, with a blocking high pressure area over northeastern Canada and Greenland, and a low pressure trough over eastern Canada. This setup supplies the US Northeast with frequent spells of colder than normal temperatures. If the blocking is too strong, storms tend to miss us to the south. If the blocking is a bit weaker, the threat of storms increases. It’s a little too early to be sure what type of precipitation pattern we’ll be in during this next round of blocking, but at least the early part of the stretch is likely to be drier versus stormy.

When will the cold air return? It will begin to arrive behind a cold front which will pass through the region on  Sunday. The air ahead of and along this front will be warm enough so that any shower activity with the front will be in the form of rain. After the front goes by, some lingering moisture with colder air will provide a threat of snow showers Sunday night. At this time, any snow is not expected to cause travel problems, though we must always be on the lookout for a heavier snow shower or squall during this time of year when cold air is moving into the region.

The balance of next week looks as if it will be colder & drier than normal, with a fairly peristent west to northwest flow of air over New England.

Happy 2011 to everybody!

The storm’s gone. The winds, cold, & blowing snow have eased. What is being called “The Blizzard of 2010” is now history, though it was certainly not a blizzard, by definition, everywhere. In  Boston, it was. Areas further south especially along the coast saw some mixing and rain, which cut down snow amounts, and obviously took away from true blizzard conditions. Snowfall amounts in Greater Boston were generally 10 to 19 inches, with the higher amounts of 18.2 inches and 19.2 inches reported at Boston and Saugus, respectively. Here in Woburn, I recorded 15.5 inches of snow, which melted down to 1.30 inch of precipitation.

Tuesday was a windy & cold but very bright & sunny day. This has set the stage for a stretch of quiet weather to close out 2010. The final 3 days of the calendar year will feature sun & clouds along with a trend toward milder temperatures. Thursday & Friday should see high temperatures exceeding 40. As we get to First Night, the temperature in Boston may still be near 40 early, coasting into the 30s later, but certainly not as cold as it can be and has been. The weather will be favorable with no rain or snow, and generally light wind.

The first day of 2011 on Saturday is expected to be mostly sunny & mild as a ridge of high pressure builds right over us. We could see a high temperature of 50 or even slightly over, despite snowcover, which tends to temper warmups.

The next chance of precipitation will come in the form of rain showers as a cold front crosses the region on Sunday.

Tomorrow, we’ll look into next week to see if the milder weather pattern will last, or is only temporary.

Enjoy these few days of more pleasant early winter weather! But be alert if you are out in the early morning hours for icy patches as melting snow refreezes overnight.

Hi all! Just a quick update on the storm. The intensifying low pressure area responsible for the heavy snow & strong wind over most of eastern MA will be drifting northeastward, just southeast of Cape Cod through early Monday morning. The line of mixed precip (sleet & rain) that was along the coast almost to Boston but mainly over the South Shore has started to go back the other way and will make its way toward the Cape Cod Canal and eventually across Cape Cod as the precipitation tapers off during the early to mid morning.

The heaviest snow bands are in the 128 belt as we approach midnight. This will likely be the jackpot area with 16 to 19 inches in most of this region. Again, a few spot heavier amounts may occur but most places will be under 20 inches ranging down to around a foot. There has been somewhat less as you head west toward the CT River Valley, but other bands of heavier snow in the Worcester Hills & the Berkshires. Areas that have stayed all snow have seen a mostly dry, fluffy snow, lower in water content and easier to remove, though some significant drifting has occurred due to strong northeast to north winds.

Here in Woburn, after a lull in the snow during the 7pm hour, we’ve been experiencing moderate to heavy snow and occasional white-out conditions since about 8pm.

The heaviest snow will continue to fall overnight, tapering off shortly after dawn. Lingering snow will continue through the morning with a few flurries possible early in the afternoon Monday before it’s all over. The sky may even start to clear from the west toward sunset Monday as we dig out.

Even though the snow will be done by afternoon, expect some additional blowing & drifting snow due to strong wind gusts from the N to NW on Monday.

A blog entry later Monday will talk a little about snow amounts and other storm effects, and a look ahead to the final days of 2010.

The only change, and this doesn’t impact inland areas, is that the entire storm is trending a bit colder, which means there is less of a chance of any mix/rain getting involved unless you’re over far southeastern MA and especially the Cape & Islands. This is a drier, fluffier snow solution, and will allow most of the area to get 12-20 inches, with a slight risk of spotty heavier amounts. The storm is underway, obviously, and will peak during a 12-hour period starting about 7pm & ending about 7am, with the heaviest snow & strongest wind likely to come shortly after midnight. As stated earlier, some snow will linger through the day tomorrow, with small additional accumulation.

I hope everybody is safely where they need to be for the night. If you don’t have to travel tomorrow morning, it would be a good idea to stay put until the snow tapers and the road crews catch up. I, myself, am not so lucky. I have to be at work. Enjoy the storm everybody! Update coming later tonight…

Looking over things this morning shows me that things are generally on track with what is expected from the upcoming storm. We’ve had snow falling over alot of MA, but it’s not really from the main storm system. There was an old storm and energy moving through the Ohio Valley on Christmas Day, north of the energy that is forming the new storm. That first batch is over us now, but looking at the radar loops, you can pick out snow moving over us from west to east, and also another plume of snow moving from east to west. That tells me we’re seeing a combination of the old energy along with some ocean-effect snow. That’s responsible for the coating of snow we’ve already seen, but is not part of the main storm. That storm is now redeveloping off the South Carolina Coast. Thunderstorms down there are clear evidence of the birth of the new low pressure area.

From here, the key will be the exact track of that low pressure center. It will be coming northward obviously, but when it gets closer to here, the placement of it will determine exactly who gets what, and how much. So far my thoughts of yesterday remain pretty much intact. There will be a good deal of rain over Cape Cod, and mixing over southeastern MA, but how close that mix area gets to  Boston will be determined by the placement of a coastal front. This is a boundary you often see set up during these kinds of storms where just to the east the temperature is milder (near 32 or even higher, for example), and snow will be very wet there and often mix with or turn to sleet and rain). Just to the west of this coastal front you will see a very sharp drop off in temperature, a wind out of the northeast to north, much drier snow, which can fall very heavily. This boundary can move, and usually does. But it can be erratic, so watching it is really all you can do, with radar and surface observations. I’m pretty sure we’ll be dealing with this type of boundary tonight, during the height of the storm.

So for now, I’ll go with a 12 to 20 inch storm snowfall anywhere this boundary stays east of, with amounts dropping off as you go east and especially southeast to a 6-12 inch area closer to and just south of Boston, 3-6 inches over alot of southeastern MA, and 1-3 inches over Cape Cod.

I’ll send another update sometime this afternoon, sooner if needed.

Have a great Sunday & stay safe!

Good morning!

We are staring down the barrel of a weather gun as a powerful storm takes shape along the US Southeast Coast and begins a trip up the coast during the day today. This storm, responsible for some snow & a white Christmas in parts of the Deep South (Alabama, Mississippi, & Georgia), will spread heavy snow into New England later today through tonight, into Monday. Depending on the track of the low pressure center, some mixing with rain may occur especially along the coast from Boston south. Areas that stay all snow, and I expect most of the I-95 corridor to be included in this, will receive a foot or more of snowfall, up to 20 inches in some locations. Blizzard conditions are also likely in these areas Sunday night into Monday, thanks to strong northeast to north winds.

Check back for more updates Sunday!