9:30PM

After a dry & chilly weekend that felt more like mid February than late March, it is time to take a look at what is expected during the coming week in the Boston area.

As expected, the medium range computer models are “all over the place”. They have a general idea of how the pattern is going to go during the next 7 days, but can’t agree on the details, even run-to-run with the same model. This can be a forecasters nightmare, but not necessarily. I’ve always found that the best approach to this situation is to not change much in the thinking you were forming when the models were a bit more stable. Also, drawing upon experience, having seen this setup before, can be helpful. With this in mind, I’m making only minor adjustments again to the outlook.

Summary… Look for a dry & chilly end to March during the next 4 days, thanks to low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure over central Canada, not moving all that much, and feeding polar air into the region. A couple disturbances passing by from time to time will only produce clouds. One such disturbance is expected to move through tomorrow afternoon. The first attempt at the southern jet stream sending a storm this way will likely be thwarted by this northwesterly flow of dry air at midweek, as one stormo passes south of New England.  But as steering currents begin to bend around and the setup in Canada weakens, April should open with a bout of storminess sometime during the first 3 days of the month (we hinted at this last week as a potential period of stormy weather). It is still uncertain what type of precipitation will occur with this system, so I will be vague in my wording for now, and we’ll keep a close eye on the developing situation during the next few days.

Detailed forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 23 to 28. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 43 to 48. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Chance of rain and snow. Highs 35-45.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. High in the 40s.

See if you can pick out ice-covered Lake Winnipesaukee in NH…

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

2:15 PM

Good afternoon everyone! A brisk, chilly late March day out there. Temperatures holding in the 30s along with a gusty W to NW breeze means wind chills dip into the upper 20s at times!

There is not much in the way of change in how things look over the next few days. Low pressure traveling well south of the area tomorrow may present a shield of high clouds across the southern sky, possibly enough to filter the sun at times. Otherwise, a dry and chilly pattern will last into the beginning of the week. As we get to midweek, moderating temperatures seem fairly certain. What is uncertain is the timing & track of a low pressure system approaching from the southwest. There are vast differences in the medium range guidance, but given the emergence of a split flow pattern – seperate northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams, the models will have a little difficulty with timing and phasing, or lack thereof, of the jet streams. History has shown me that a certain computer model (The European, or ECMWF), performs better, than the GFS. My forecast will be influenced more by that model, when it comes to potential events at the middle of the coming week. With this in mind, we will introduce increasing clouds to Wednesday’s forecast and precipitation to Thursday’s. I say precipitation, because there is about an equal risk of rain or snow, or a combination of the 2, and this far out from the event, it’s too early to say with any confidence which kind may dominate in the Boston area.

Forecast details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Sunshine may be dimmed by high cloudiness at times. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind W under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind W 10 to 20 mph shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. High in the middle 40s.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain or snow. High 35-45.

EARLY DAYS OF APRIL: More frequent storminess with variable temperatures, averaging a little closer to normal.

4:50PM

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible in Essex and eastern Middlesex Counties before midnight. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 35 to 40. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Sunshine may be dimmed by high cloudiness at times. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. High in the upper 30s.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High in the upper 40s.

QUICK PEEK: Unsettled weather more likely during the first several days of April.

3:00 AM

It looks like we’re in for several days of generally dry, chilly weather, thanks to upper level low pressure over southeastern Canada (pushing the storm track to the south) and surface high pressure spending most of its time over south central Canada, ridging down over the Great Lakes (supplying chilly, dry air. This pattern appears to want to lock in for a while.

Our friends the GFS & Euro disagree on when this pattern will break, with the GFS wanting to slide a low pressure system across the Northeast March 30-31, and the Euro waiting for a day or 2 longer. For the  moment, I’m leaning toward the slower Euro. One thing seems pretty certain though, the overall pattern will be a chilly one for some time to come…

Looking out a bit further…I think we stay in a relatively cool pattern in early April, but return to a more active pattern with several storm passages in fairly rapid succession. And sticking with that original March 15 to April 15 window for a final significant snowfall for parts of the Boston Area, I still feel this is not 100% out of the question. Climatology alone supports this, and the pattern beyond the final days of March may also do same.

Boston Area Forecast for the next several days…

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then a mix of sun & a fair amount of diurnal clouds. Slight risk of a passing light snow shower. High in the lower 40s. Wind W to NW 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early, then clearing. Low in the upper 20s. Wind W up to 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High in the upper 30s to 40. Wind WNW 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the lower 20s inland to upper 20s coast. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15  mph.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Continued dry weather. Sunniest early in the week. More clouds midweek. Highs closer to 40 Monday moderating toward 50 by Thursday.

Have a great day!

Our little storm is becoming even smaller as it gets torn apart while passing south of New England. Snowfall will be minimal, but some accumulation is still possible today as a couple more areas of energy pass by the region. A lingering trough may produce a few additional snow showers tonight into Friday. High pressure will dominate the region with chilly & dry weather for the weekend.

Hi everyone and a special hi to any new readers!! The updates here will be getting more regular during the next couple weeks – not just updated forecasts for the Boston area but other topics as well. Please feel free to comment on anything or ask any weather-related questions! I’ll do my best to answer (or just tell you to google it, just kidding!).

A quick update on the coming “storm” if you want to call it that. Still in line to do what is indicated in the last forecast update. Most of the snow in the Boston area will fall between 7pm this evening & mid to late morning Thursday. I have a 1 to 4 inch accumulation range but most places will end up with under 3 inches. The snow just doesn’t appear to have a chance to fall hard enough at the right time for a long enough time. And with relatively warm pavements, even less snow will accumulate there (pretty much none at all on highways and major roads). So again, we have a minor impact event on our hands, but regardless, please use caution if you will be out, especially walking on slushy surfaces, later this evening through tomorrow morning.

I’ll post a new forecast for the remainder of this week and looking into early  next week in the next update later this evening! Quick hint: I think the next storm threat early to middle of next week may remain offshore, but should be watched anyway. And the chilly and potentially stormy pattern may continue into the opening days of April as well.

12:45 AM

TODAY… Cloudy. High in the upper 30s. Wind northeast up to 10 mph.

TONIGHT… Cloudy. Snow developing after 7pm. Low around 30. Wind northeast around 10 mph.

THURSDAY… Cloudy. Periods of snow, especially in the morning. Total accumulation 1 to 4 inches, especially on unpaved surfaces. High in the middle 30s. Wind northeast to north 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers.  Low in the upper 20s. Wind north 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

FRIDAY… Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. High in the upper 30s. Wind north to northwest 15 to 25 mph.

SATURDAY… Mostly sunny. High in the upper 30s.

SUNDAY… Partly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

11:30 PM

Spring has begun, at least according to the calendar. At 7:21 PM, the Vernal Equinox occurred, marking the beginning of spring. But we all know that this event does not always mean we have seen the last of the cold & snow for the winter weather season. And this will certainly be true this year. Our old friend, the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is coming back, putting us back into a colder than normal pattern for the balance of March and the early part of April. Along with this will be several threats of late-season snow. The first such threat is only hours away, as a low pressure system racing eastward through the Great Lakes moves into the region on Monday. The air will be cold enough during the first few hours of precipitation so that some snow occurs. Some minor accumulations are expected, especially inland, over higher elevations, and on unpaved surfaces. Main roads closer to Boston are not expected to suffer major impact from this system, which will end as rain Monday evening as milder air will have moved in above us.

A narrow area of high pressure will provide drier, chilly weather for Tuesday. But already we’ll be turning our attention to the next threat of precipitation, which exists from late Wednesday through Thursday. The details are sketchy on how this system will set up, as there is conflicting computer model information. My best guess on this system right now is that we will get through Wednesday dry, but sometime Wednesday night or Thursday we will see a shot of mixed precipitation and snow, the extent of which will be determined by the positioning of an inverted trough of low pressure setting up over southern New England. These types of systems can become the focus for significant precipitation, without a major storm system, and they are very tricky to forecast. So we will just have to follow this to see how things set up as we get to the middle of the week.

Another episode of drier, chilly weather is expected at the end of the week, into the weekend. But a peek into the following week shows that a chilly and possibly storm pattern may be with us…

Detailed Boston Area Forecast for the next seven days…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Low in the middle 20s. Wind south under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Overcast. Precipitation developing during the morning and continuing through the afternoon, falling as a mix of rain/snow when it’s lighter and snow when it’s heavier until 3 or 4 PM when it will become all rain. Snow accumulation of less than 1 inch near the coast and south of Boston, 1 to 2 inches mainly on unpaved surfaces away from the coast, and 2 to 4 inches over the higher elevations of inland Middlesex County and Worcester County as well as nearby southern NH. High in the middle to upper 30s. Wind southeast to south up to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light rain tapering off during the evening. Clearing overnight. Temperature steady in the middle 30s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s. Wind north 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low in the middle 20s. Wind north diminishing to under 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High in the lower 40s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Chance of snow. High in the middle 30s.

FRIDAY: Clearing. High in the upper 30s.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High in the middle 40s.

7:45 P.M.

The “Super Moon” has risen! Yes, I’m sure you’ve heard the hype about disasters all supposed to take place today because of this moon, a little closer to the Earth than it has been in a while. The only impact from this will be tides that are slightly higher than average. The rest? Nonsense. So, the sky has cleared nicely over most of the area and we’ll have a great view of this full moon tonight. Enjoy!

The Weather…

Back to reality. Colder air has moved in behind the warmth of the last couple days. Often at this time of year we’ll be teased with a warm day or 2, only to be back to the chill fairly quickly. But this return to chill is a return to a new weather pattern, or an old weather pattern, depending on how you look at it. For several days now I’ve been advertising a return to a colder than normal weather pattern, including at least one more snow threat. This appears to be taking shape now. I will go into more detail about this pattern on tomorrow’s look at the week ahead. For now, let’s look at a quick updated forecast for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from near 20 inland valleys to near 30 along the shoreline. Wind north under 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s. Wind north up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low in the upper 20s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may begin as a mix away from the coast in the early morning. High in the middle 40s. Wind south up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. High in the middle 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix late day and snow at night. High in the upper 30s.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. High in the middle 30s.

2:40 AM

As is often the case, some of the final days of Winter will be mild, and the first days of Spring will be colder. It’s just a typical scenario in the climate of New England. No big surprises.

In the short term, we’re warming up, with a bright & mild St. Pat’s day just getting underway as the last of the patchy fog burns off during this morning. A sea breeze along the immediate coast this afternoon may put the brakes on the warm up at some point this afternoon.  All areas will be warm for several hours on Friday as a stronger west wind arrives just ahead of a cold front. This front will cross the region, with a few showers, and a return to chilly air for Friday night and the weekend. A wave of low pressure on the cold front will pass mostly south of the region on Saturday but may hold some clouds in during the morning.

Forecast details for the Boston area…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 55 to 60 though temperatures may drop back to the 40s along the immediate coast in the afternoon. Wind W up to 10 mph except local afternoon seabreezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High 60 to 65. Wind W 15 to 25 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High in the upper 40s.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

A quick peek down the road into next week… Potential colder/stormy pattern returns. Cannot rule out a snow event in the March 22-27 window. Will be keeping an eye on trends.

1:00 AM

Boston Area Forecast

TODAY… Cloudy with rain developing during the morning, peaking in the middle of the day, ending during the afternoon. Breaks in the clouds and even a little sun is possible by the early evening hours. High in the upper 40s. Wind SE to S 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT… Clearing. Low 32 to 37. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY… Mostly sunny. High 55 to 60. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy. Low 4o to 45. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY… Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY… Partly sunny. High in the lower 50s.

SUNDAY… Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

915PM (original) / 1215AM update to remove TONIGHT portion & tweak MONDAY and also add a note about visible planets…

Well it’s that time again. Another week over. Another about to begin. And time to take a look at the weather for the next 7 days.

The weather pattern this week is fairly straightforward, with a fast-flowing jet stream bringing a few disturbances across the region. These should come through Monday (an upper level system with cold air aloft causing lots of clouds), Wednesday (a low pressure area from the southwest with a period of rain), and Friday (a low pressure area passing north of the area and dragging a cold front through with clouds and a chance of showers). High pressure will dominate Tuesday & Thursday with fair weather for the Ides & St. Patrick’s Day. An early peek at next weekend indicates high pressure building in with dry, chilly weather, with a windy start Saturday and a more tranquil Sunday.

NOTE: If the sky clears early enough Monday evening, looking to the west about 45 minutes to 1 hour and 15 minutes after sunset you will be able to see Jupiter & Mercury. Mercury will be to the lower right of the easily-spotted brighter Jupiter. You need to be able to see lower to the horizon to observe Mercury. Binoculars will help. Hopefully the clouds will get out of here in time.

The details for the Boston area…

MONDAY: Sun mixed with clouds, most sun through late morning, more clouds in the afternoon with there is a very slight chance of an isolated rain or snow shower. Sun may increase by the 600PM hour just prior to the 649PM sunset. High in the lower 40s. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low in the lower 20s inland valleys to the upper 20s coast. Wind NW to W under 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High in the middle to upper 40s. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low in the middle 30s. Wind S under 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain in the morning, may begin as light snow inland. Steadier rain in the afternoon. High in the middle 40s. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending early, followed by clearing. Low in the middle 30s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 50s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. High in the upper 50s. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. High in the middle 40s.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the upper 40s.

850PM

TONIGHT: Cloudy.  Slight chance of very light snow though most areas will remain dry. Low 30 to 35.  Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light snow in the morning. Slight chance of very light rain in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind east 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing. Temperature steady 40 to 45. Wind southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. High 45 to 50. Wind east 10 to 15 mph shifting to south late.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. High in the lower 50s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. High in the upper 40s.

1200AM

Windy/colder weather swept into the Boston area Monday afternoon & night as the storm that produced some heavy rain departed the region. Heavy snow/sleet/ice was confined to extreme western New England and a good portion of northern New England. Areas of flooding were reported in western and parts of central MA as heavy rain combined with melting snow. Around dawn on Monday, temperatures ranged from the middle 20s in the Berkshires to the lower 50s in Boston. The warmer air is long gone, and the entire region was cold, clear, & windy by Monday evening.

High pressure will build across the region today with dry & chilly weather. This high will move offshore on Wednesday, allowing clouds to begin moving in ahead of the next storm. This system will likely take a track west of New England Thursday with waves of low pressure developing along a slowly advancing frontal boundary Thursday night into Friday. The setup may be similar to the one we just went through, with heaviest precipitation in western and northern New England, including some snow/ice. Rain is more likely further east and south, including the Boston area.

Looking ahead, a couple of weak weather systems will bring some lingering unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend, though major storminess is not expected.

Boston area forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear.  Low ranging from the middle teens inland valley areas to the middle 20s along the coast. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High in the upper 30s. Wind east up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low in the lower 30s. Wind east up to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. High in the lower 40s. Wind southeast up to 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Rain likely. High in the 40s.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Chance of rain & snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.