Thursday November 14 2024 Forecast (7:00AM)

28 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Not much to add today – more of an update to see yup, blocking in place, and yup, still a dry pattern. In fact, our fire danger may reach a peak in the next 72 hours (especially Friday into Saturday) thanks to an ocean storm. The pattern allows the storm to our east to back in enough to bring increased wind, but not enough to throw its precipitation shield far enough west to reach our region other than maybe a passing brief patch or two of light rain sometime later Friday (I actually think this stays offshore as well). Backing up a bit, the evolution of the block drives one system to our southwest today – a system that might have brought rain to us in a non-blocked pattern, but all we’ll see from it is a shield of clouds in the southwestern sky later on. This system joins the ocean party before it all drifts away to the east later in the weekend and we continue dry, with a temperature moderation. This moderation will be felt Monday, but another disturbance will dive southeastward through the area, bringing some clouds and maybe a quick passing rain shower Monday, but no widespread beneficial rainfall. Also, a reminder that during Friday and into the weekend, some minor coastal flooding / splash-over can occur due to the offshore storm.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 44-51. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Maybe brief light rain or mixed rain/snow favoring the NH Seacoast and far eastern MA. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Large scale blocking relaxes somewhat, with a general northwest to west flow here and a cooling trend the middle of next week, and some moderation after that. Medium range guidance hints at a system around November 22 to bring a rain chance, but in the current regime there’s some doubt about how productive it will be. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

While there remain hints of upper level troughing in the Northeast with a cooler regime, it still doesn’t look too stormy to me, just slightly more unsettled. Still leaning toward drier over wetter heading toward Thanksgiving (November 28).

28 thoughts on “Thursday November 14 2024 Forecast (7:00AM)”

  1. Note now that we have a circulation, global guidance starts to likely do a better job picking up the eventual track (don’t pay attention to precise details though, and still check ENSEMBLES 100% to see if they support any operational run).

    We should note a trend that eliminates the “FL hurricane threat” and a system that’s more buried that never really impacts the US (other than maybe some residual moisture of no great consequence).

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  3. NHC will probably give that system a name soon, but meteorologically it may never actually become a tropical storm before reaching land. I’m curious to see if they play the name game, since we can see the actual meteorology that will tell us whether or not it truly deserves one.

    Bottom line: A buried, non-major system overall. Maybe some flooding issues for parts of Mexico.

    I cautioned all of my weather-related social media platforms about getting to caught up in guidance that couldn’t forecast the system correctly because it didn’t really exist yet (how many times have we heard that now? haha) .. 🙂

    Now, this system is not being declared by me to be a non-factor. My point here is that just because “the models” give a scenario, doesn’t mean that will be THE scenario. There is strong evidence already that it most certainly will not be. Regardless, watching the system closely to see what does happen in the short and eventually medium term.

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  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Big woof with the cold here only making 32 once again. Early last evening dew point was 6 and steadily rose to about 19 by 1130. Temperature only very slowly dropped.

    I think there was too much wind here.

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  7. TK, SAK and other met friends:

    Is there anything record-breaking or historic about our current drought/dry spell? I know that it’s causing many severe brush fires and, yesterday, house fires. Downtown Hyannis even had several businesses damaged yesterday because of fire.

    What do the numbers say?

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    1. Driest Sep-Nov on record for Blue Hill is 4.32″ in 1946. This year? 2.67″

      Unless the pattern suddenly gets very wet in the next 2 weeks, then it will be the driest fall on record for Blue Hill.

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    1. Thank you, Captain.

      I was surprised RI…at least northern part where my son lives,,,,8# moderate. But wonder if the blackstone river is bone dry there because it arrives from areas in severe drought so there is not much to flow downstream

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        1. Yes, rain is necessary for a rainbow, HOWEVER it does not have to be falling at the location you observe the bow from. So in that way, you can have a rainbow without rain, in the sense that it is not raining where you are. But at the very least you need a precipitation shaft (even if it’s not fully reaching the ground) to form one.

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            2. I make them with hoses a lot in the summer. It’s fun. 🙂 But that simulates the same thing a rain shaft does anyway. It’s still the same science. 🙂

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