DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
If you hear the terms “blocking” and “ocean storm” you might think “stormy” for your forecast, but despite the first 2 being true, the third isn’t, and instead it’s more dry weather today into the weekend as the offshore storm spins out there, kicking up the northerly breeze through Saturday, but keeping most of its clouds and all of its precipitation over the ocean. In fact, deeper into the weekend we see wind relax and a moderating temperature trend. The wind will start to come back up early in the week as a disturbance and cold front move through in a northwesterly air flow, reversing the temperature moderation to a cool-down, but with more dry weather. Your best chance of seeing “water” on the coast is from minor splash-over at high tide times today and Friday from the combined offshore storm and higher tides due to a full super moon (today). Fire danger remains high to very high across the region during the coming days.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Targeting November 21 for best rain chance, but not sold this will be a significant rain producer. It does come at the beginning of a pattern shift to more trough in the Northeast, which probably leads to more of a cool but mostly dry regime with just a few showers of rain/mix and a seasonable chill after that earlier-period wet weather chance.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Continued signs of a trough being the dominant feature in the Northeast. While a more “unsettled” pattern, it doesn’t scream “stormy” from what I can see. Will continue to monitor the evolution of the pattern heading toward and into the Thanksgiving holiday period.
Thanks TK !
Thanks Tk
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=MHLC&hours=72
Location on the coast not too far from Sara.
Rain or heavy rain shower last many, many hrs.
Look at the visibility though ….. the rain must be consistently very heavy. Too bad this reporting station doesn’t report rain totals.
Thanks, TK
Coldest night of the season so far coming in at 25.
Good morning and thank you TK
28 this morning for coldest of the season.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK
25 for a low here also. Up and down starting around 2 am…or was it 3. I only have one eye open around that time. 43 at 10 am
Left my watering can out on my balcony overnight and yes there was ice in it this AM.
Well, all the 12z models that go out well past 84 hrs have something for precip potential in the 144-180 hr ish time frame.
A lot of different scenarios. The GDPS with a bomb along the south coast.
GFS and UkMet with a strong storm hitting max intensity around the eastern Great Lakes sending a ribbon of showers through
and the ICON is something in btwn.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=19L&product=vis_swir
And Sara is truly hugging the coastline.
I think looking at this loop, central America got lucky here in escaping a major hurricane.
Its a well defined circulation that’s doing ok, in spite of how much land interaction there is.
There may be areas though having major flooding issues, but at least the coast isn’t taking a cat 3+ storm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=19L&product=wv_mid
This water vapor loop shows it is under a fairly decent environment.
Remember once upon a time the medium range guidance showed a shield of rain backing into New England today? 🙂
I believe you 🙂
Well, not bad for the medium range.
Obviously, on one hand, rain is not backing in to New England
On the other hand, there is a low retrograding and I think some showers are backing into Maine.
So, half and half for the medium range ????
Partial credit, Mr. Teacher. 🙂
LOL ……
gimmie some of this!!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024111512&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps
Icon and GFS have it too. Similar placement but weaker on the Icon. GFS has the storm center over Buffalo so would be more of frontal passage here with that scenario.
Regardless, perhaps finally a solid precip threat to track in the not too long range?
I’ve been trying to follow this. TK does not seem to think it’ll be a big producer if it produces at all. I’m hoping we get something that is moderately substantial … probably wishful thinking.
Nope. GDPS has fallen to the depths as a very poorly performing piece of guidance … even worse than the GFS.
ALWAYS, ALWAYS produces too much rain in its simulations, as the GFS is obsessed with over-blocking.
Jury’s out on the new upgrade for ECMWF, but so far looks good.
And gimme some of this as well!
https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/conditions-weather/webcam/north-ridge-cam
Nice, not only some early season skiing, but what visibility and views !!!!
Well, what’s stopping you?
No time this weekend but I am hoping to get a first day of skiing in there either Thanksgiving weekend or first weekend of December!
excellent. go get em
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024111512&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Keeping some of TK’s words of wisdom above about the medium range, here is the EURO’s medium range take on the rain opportunity. Looks similar to the GFS and UkMet
Yeah a westerly track would mean this ends up more of a frontal passage and probably only a briefer ribbon of rain. Given the stretch we are in, I would hedge my bets on the drier scenario.
Watch, it won’r rain a drop.
One of the many reasons I admire Pete. I know Eric and JR feel the same.
Hi AI algorithm. The climate has always been changing, but humankind has overwhelmingly contributed to its recent rapid warming. Others may dispute this, but follow the (few remaining) climate scientists for proof.
https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1857491992285966533?s=61
Review of PM stuff … no change to thinking.
Well, that was easy!
I’ll be off to photograph a consolation playoff game in Lynn this evening when we go visit Lynn English. Both teams lost their first round playoff matches to higher-seeded teams who go on to play for a chance to go to Gillette. We have this consolation round game for placement, and then our traditional Thanksgiving game against Winchester on November 28. 🙂
Enjoy.
A bit of ice on Pratt Pond in Mason, NH:
https://ibb.co/JpDPdC8
I’ve seen a couple ice patches in shallow waters around here recently. 🙂
We don’t have enough shallow water too freeze …sniff
This photo was taken around 1pm. By 3pm, most of the ice was gone.
Awesome photo.
CPC .. big swath of above normal precip on their 6-10 day forecast for New England.
TK .. doesn’t agree.
Woburn 26
Lynn English 0
Just saw on FB. Wow. Congratulations
Warmer tonight
New post…