DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
A colder westerly flow dominates our weather during the next few days. Today, clouds will tend to increase from 3 sources: 1) South Coast region ocean-effect clouds. 2) Fair-weather cumulus that develop over land areas. 3) High to mid level clouds from a disturbance passing south of the area. Sunshine will be more dominant Monday and Tuesday across the region. Wednesday, clouds return from west to east ahead of an approaching “clipper” type low pressure area that traverses the Great Lakes region then moves north of our area. This system can produce a period of snow (rain or snow coast) later Wednesday with some minor snow accumulation possible where it snows long enough. A few snow showers can linger into Thursday as the system departs and a new surge of cold air arrives from Canada.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Chance of snow (except rain or snow coastal areas) late-day or nighttime. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow except rain or snow coast. Lows 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Cold but diminishing wind December 6 with dry weather expected as high pressure moves closer. A weak and fast-moving disturbance brings a chance of snow showers December 7. Dry weather follows this but a shift to a more southwesterly flow may allow low pressure with more substantial moisture to arrive by the end of the period with a precipitation threat.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Another low pressure area threatens some precipitation about mid period, otherwise mostly dry start and end of period with variable temperatures but no extremes indicates.
Thanks TK
I have created 2 new tabs (accessible from the blog menu):
-WINTER FORECAST 2024-2025
-SNOWFALL CONTEST 2024-2025
Both of these have comments enabled.
For the contest, please read the description for submitting guesses in the correct format. You may leave a comment with your guesses directly on that page. Comments will close in 7 days.
TK – such a great winter forecast. Maybe the best one I have ever read, as it balances complex science with an easy to understand narrative with deft skill.
I am close to you in thinking. Concerned that January ends up a bit warmer which will not only limits coastal snows but likely reduces accumulation in places like Hartford and Springfield, keeping more meaningful accumulations to inland elevated areas.
Boston 41″
Providence 31″
Worcester 56″
Hartford 44″
Concord 64″
Bonus my backyard in the snow hole, may do a little better as west to east clipper type storms offer the valley shadow areas some its best opportunities to grow seasonal snow total. The most recent 5 year average is only 21″. Going with 42″ here.
I had not seen your detailed accumulation post, and I just laughed out loud at how close we are.
Also, happy to read you got the Alive and Kicking reference. That song has so many distinctive parts compared to the current 3 minute in and out pop songs.
I just saw the similarity. So funny!
Yes, that song is one of my 80s faves. Timeless, even though it does give you that distinctive 80s vibe. Strong college correlation and will always take me back. 🙂
good morning and thank you TK.
Only could muster 27 here for a low. big woof.
I just don’t see Boston reaching 40 inches of snow this Winter. But 2 experts here say yes it willl, so there ya go. Should be interesting for sure.
FWIW,
Ocean temp (Boston Buoy) is still 50
degrees this fine Dec 1st day That in itself is a Snow killer for Boston.
We shall see how that plays out and how fast that drops. This up coming colder weather can only help. how much remains to be seen.
I’m also suspecting rain along the coast for Wednesday old salty with that warm ocean water. When Is the last Boston winter when the water has been pretty cold ??
It’s been awhile for sure, but I can’t say.
I remember spending January in Humarock in 2011 and the water was warmer than typical for the plunge
Thanks TK
First day of meteorological winter and it feels like winter.
sort of. 🙂
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK
“Now the first of December was covered with snow…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sw-cWJ93zmU
Have always loved this song. Thank you, Captain
Thanks, TK
Looking at the next couple of clipper type systems, I can’t help but see that they will be traveling TOO far North for any meaningful redevelopment with not too much moisture available and generally a Southerly component to the wind. Translation, little precipitation and what there is will either be RAIN or brief snow to RAIN. Anyhow, that’s how I see it, right or wrong.
Time will tell.
Farther down the road, there may be a more significant system that will either track too far West OR out to see. NO Goldilocks track, imho. Again, we shall see.
I guess I am stuck in a negative funk!! I’d like to snap out of it, but I don’t see it at this time. I shall keep watching.
This is nearly 10 days out, so can’t read too much into this.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024120112&fh=234&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
TK and JMA, I entered your predictions. I added a link on the contest page of predictions I have to date. Please check to be sure I didn’t miss yours or entered your incorrectly
Thanks, everyone
When clippers pass to our north like the upcoming one will based on TK’s thinking above, Boston has difficulty getting snow even in the dead of winter. This being in early December, not likely Boston and the coastline will see their first measurable snowfall of the season. Only clippers that dive to our SOUTH have the best opportunities for meaningful snow.
Worcester will once again get off to a head start over Boston come Wednesday/Wednesday night.
I will still keep track of the Boston-Worcester-NYC snow “rivalry” again this season. 🙂
To TK;
I think you need to change the due date in your 24-25 snowfall contest. It reads “Final guesses must be made by the end of the day on November 22 2023.”
Thanks.
Sue:
How did “Bus” do in the Thanksgiving morning game?
It was an ugly game with some of the worst officiating I have ever seen in high school football. Bus did his job but the end result was not what we wanted. We are onto the banquet and the announcing of next season’s captains. Hoping Bus gets the nod.
So sorry. These kids work too hard to have bad officiating Hoping for Bus too.
Just got back from Lake Placid. After tying Clarkson last night, Lowell won an 8-round shootout to claim to tournament title.
There was already heavy traffic on the Pike on both sides near 84 at 10am. I’m off to the Bruins Centennial Game this afternoon, and will post my snowfall predictions in the next day or two.
Next trip: Lowell is hosting the first annual Coachella Valley Cactus Cup in Palm Desert, CA the weekend after New Year’s. Looking forward to a trip to Palm Springs in January!
Boy you get around , enjoy the Hockey Game
I thought that Lowell vs Clarkson would be a good close game. I didn’t expect it to be tied at the end of all three regular periods and both overtime periods!
Way to go Lowell! Hope you’re enjoying the game this afternoon too!
Pats inside the Red Zone twice and could not get the TD. Settled for 2 FGs. At one point, they were 1st and Goal on the 1-yard line. Ugh!
Pats down 7-6.
The Pain-triots lose once again. UGH!!
They find a new way to lose every week!!! PATHETIC!!!!
Rebuilding. Still a lot of issues. We should focus on the talent of the young, upcoming QB. Pats are not going to be stringing the wins together right now like they did for 2 decades under the previous regime. 😉
Still, today’s game was fun to listen to. 🙂
I’m a Hallmark fan. Especially at Christmas. Last nights movie was focused on the KC Chiefs. A few players had small parts.
Doesn’t hurt that the male star is my favorite but loved his comment when losing years were mentioned and thought of you, TK
“It’s not hard to show up when your team is winning, but it’s the real fans that show up in the lean years. “
🙂
I never miss a game unless there is an unusual circumstance and it will continue that way for me. My opinion is that they have the potential to be a winning team next year and a contending team the year after as long as everyone is patient.
I could tell that and love it. And I get being disappointed. I haven’t watched only because I’ve been busy. But miss watching.
only good thing is Drake Maye.
Exactly. Look at my commanders. Terrible last year and now 8-5. Also every 1st round pick under the last regime is gone and they are still 8-5.
The B’s, in their Centennial Game against the Montreal Canadiens, are up 3-0 late in the 1st.
Now 4-0.
Down to 29 already. But didn’t have far to drop
That Patriots game good grief coaching coaching coaching!!!! Now with that said, I feel the last several weeks AVP has kind of helped his cause of staying on. 1 I am seeing play designs finally, 2 we all saw what happened to Mac when they changed OC his second year. 3. The DC is needing to be fired. I still think Mayo needs to really rethink things with his coaching and just stop talking to the darn media he needs to zip it.
I already put this in the contest page but I am thinking around average snowfall this season. I think we have several storms that slide from west to east instead of a bunch of coastal storms that go from southwest to northeast possibly limiting the warm ocean impact. I hope this link works but its my thoughts on winter, I think I lean more heavy on the -EPO/+TNH pattern this winter especially have looking at some of the research on these for winter. If you want to see the actual forecast for the area go to the bottom.
https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/seasonal-outlooks/
Boston: 48.2
Worcester: 65.4
Providence: 42
Hartford: 51
Concord 66.2
Nice Sunday night football snow game
BUF & SF
New post!