Monday December 2 2024 Forecast (6:57AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

A cold spell marks the first week of December. High pressure sits over the Tennessee Valley and low pressure over eastern Canada. We’ll be in an air flow from the northwest to west. This provides dry weather for the region, the exception being some ocean-effect clouds than can produce a few rain and/or snow showers over the outer portion of Cape Cod today and Tuesday, and perhaps a few locations along the South Coast, most especially Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, during Tuesday. Wednesday, the daytime hours will be dry but we’ll see sun give way to clouds ahead of an approaching warm front, parented by low pressure moving east southeastward from Canada into the Great Lakes. This broad but fast moving circulation will take a bit of a left turn and pass to our north Wednesday night and Thursday. Its warm front will produce a swath of light precipitation across our region Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, bringing some light snowfall accumulation to inland areas. Closer to the coast, where it’ll be a little milder, look for more inconsequential wet snow or mixed precipitation transitioning to rain before ending with the front’s passage. The air behind the “warm front” won’t be particularly warm – just a bit milder than the 3 days that precede it. But the cold front that trails from the passing low pressure area will sweep across the region Thursday evening, bringing the shot at a snow shower or snow squall, except snow and/or rain showers in the milder environment from Boston southward. This front will usher in noticeably colder air for Friday, and along with wind it’ll feel more like mid winter than late autumn.

TODAY: Sunshine except some clouds and a chance of a few passing rain and/or snow showers Outer Cape Cod. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy Cape Cod. Mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 20-27. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower possible Cape Cod / Islands. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow inland with minor accumulation, snow/mix to mix/rain coast with little or no snow accumulation. Lows 31-38 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy early with a chance of snow/mix inland, rain coast, then a sun/cloud mix with a chance of a late day snow shower inland and rain or snow shower coast. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill as low as 10.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 29-36. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 20.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A fast-moving disturbance brings a snow shower chance later December 7 to early December 8 with below normal temperatures over the weekend. Moderating temperatures early next week including a rain/mix/snow threat late December 9 to early December 10 – doesn’t look like a big storm at this point, but have to watch several areas of moisture and energy before a higher confidence outlook can be made for that system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Another low pressure area threatens some precipitation early to mid period, then drier weather. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

42 thoughts on “Monday December 2 2024 Forecast (6:57AM)”

  2. Good morning snd thank you TK

    24 here this morning, coldest of the season.

    So far, I am not impressed by any systems on the horizon. Plenty of time for things to change.

    Reply

    1. Just use caution if using the operational runs of the GFS these days to come up with that. You’d get a better “forecast” pretty much taking the opposite of what it said beyond 5 days. 🙂

      Reply

      1. I’ve been looking at the Euro and Canadian as well. None of them impress me, but like you say once you get past 4 or 5 days, anything can happen. I’ll be watching, but not expecting. 🙂

        Reply

  3. Regarding the system Wed night..
    When the wind turns Southerly, just remember the ocean temp South of Block Island, RI is dtill 56 3. If you think it’s going to snow, think again.

    Ocean up here is finally under 50 at 49.8. (Boston Buoy)

    Reply

    1. That depends on where you are. And why I went for more of a rain event at the coast. 🙂 Inland areas get a minor accumulating snow event.

      Reply

      1. This time when you say inland, you mean substantially inland from the South Coast. And at the same time inland from the East Coast.

        Reply

  6. Avg hi/lo in Boston today is 46F/33F.

    December is to early winter up here, what June is to early summer.

    In both cases, you can get an impressive, brief preview of each season, but usually its largely an extension of late autumn and late spring.

    Reply

  13. Looking ahead, I see some more clipper type systems going North of us and then several LAKES CUTTERS going West of us.

    Snow chances DOWN THE DRAIN!!!

    Reply

    1. I do NOT NOT NOT like the way December is setting up, despite this little “cold” snap, if you want to call it that. 🙂

      Reply

    2. That makes the assumption that all those storm track simulations are correct. 🙂

      I’d be confident in these out about 4 or 5 days, and then not really. 🙂

      Reply

      1. Oh I understand that. Just expressing my frustration is all.
        We shall see how they all track.

        For whatever reason, clippers most often track farther North
        than expected, except for the few times they don’t. 🙂

        AS for the cutters, well even I know that cutters 10-15 days out can end up as coastal storms, so we shall see.

        Reply

        1. Well, on Dec 2 we’re still a few weeks from the actual beginning of winter, and dropping into a “snowy” pattern is fairly unusual for this point in the season. I still wouldn’t let the guidance sway me too much. Even the best of it has had a lot of issues with details lately.

          We’re certainly not about to go into a blowtorch pattern even when this initial cold surge eases. It’s really just an easing / milder pattern for a bit. I’m already seeing signs of a return to this before too long. You won’t really see that on most op runs at the moment, but the hints are there. Take not today of CPC’s 8-14 day outlook that doesn’t not venture into high percentages of anomalies anywhere.

          As far as “snowstorm” chances, MJO is really not your friend at the moment.

          Reply

  14. It’s about this time of year that I always gravitate to reading about Twilight Types …. civil twilight, nautical twilight, and astronomical twilight. It seems I have to remind myself every year. (Some would say it’s because I am getting older. In truth, it’s because I am getting younger and therefore less knowledgeable.)

    If you are interested, you can click on the link and it’s easier to scroll down to the graphic than read the actual definitions.
    https://www.weather.gov/lmk/twilight-types

    Reply

  15. Stratocumulus invasion in progress. Been a lot of these around the past several days.

    These are more clouds than I anticipated when forecasting for late today / this evening.

    Reply

  17. Models seem to have gotten more robust with the Wed night system here in CT…most showing 1-3″ of snow and that is in line with the NWS forecast now for much of our area.

    Reply

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