Wednesday December 4 2024 Forecast (6:31AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

In the short term, our attention now turns to a low pressure system that will impact our weather today, especially tonight, into Thursday as well. This system is a kind-of clipper, a fast-moving low pressure area moving east southeast from Canada, and the jet stream in this case will steer it eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley. While we get a blossoming area of fairly steady precipitation late this evening and overnight / early Thursday, the impact of a southerly air flow due to the storm’s track will keep the all-important boundary layer, an important region in the lower atmosphere for determining precipitation type, too mild to support snow for much of the time in the I-95 belt and most certainly the coastal areas. Further inland, the opportunity for snow is greater, and there will be some accumulation from the I-495 belt / I-86 belt westward, favoring higher elevations. During the day Thursday a strong cold front trailing from the low center will trigger some snow showers / squalls. These can be mixed with rain or even start as rain the closer to the coast you get, but even there they can end in the form of a quick burst of snow. Other than a few lingering snow flurries, dry and much colder weather arrives at night and takes hold through Friday, although the wind that makes it feel even colder on Friday should start to ease by Friday evening. Another disturbance crosses the region on Saturday with the potential for some snow showers. This system is not expect to have any significant impact. High pressure provides dry and chilly weather Sunday.

TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Brief light snow and rain around during early evening. Steadier rain coast, snow inland with a coating to 2 inches late evening on. Lows 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Cloudy early morning with rain and snow ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix with passing snow showers (rain or snow showers coast) midday on. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to WNW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill as low as 10.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 29-36. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 20.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 29-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

A cold start and milder finish December 9 leads to a milder and unsettled period with a couple periods of rain favored December 10-11. Another low pressure area can pass close by December 12-13, timing and track uncertain, but additional unsettled weather possible.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Trend back to a drier northwesterly flow and colder trend anticipated during this period.

75 thoughts on “Wednesday December 4 2024 Forecast (6:31AM)”

      1. It shouldn’t. 🙂
        1) It’s a system with zero Gulf of Mexico and virtually zero Pacific moisture in it.
        2) The vast majority of the precipitation that will take place tonight will be developing overhead tonight.

        Reply

        1. Yes, I am aware of that. 🙂

          And, had it been Mid January or February, “perhaps” Boston could have experienced a light snow fall. 🙂
          Oh well, it’s early December and we live with it.

          Reply

  9. Thank you, TK.

    I just want to say thank you to TK and the WHW folks. It’s been great to be a part of the group for so long.

    I apologize for no longer posting. I’ve withdrawn from a lot of things lately.

    I wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday season!

    Reply

    1. Joshua, you are missed here way more than you could possibly imagine. I sincerely wish you would reconsider. I hope none of us posted anything that offended you.

      Reply

    4. I just did a little happy dance when I saw your name. I echo JPD but understand Also that you need the time. Wishing you the very best ❤️

      Reply

      1. Good to hear from you Joshua! I went through the same last year around this time. Hope you reconsider (at least occasionally) in 2025. 🙂

        Reply

  12. Thanks TK. Finally got a chance to give your winter outlook a read – excellent, as usual. And while I’ve looked much more at the West Coast’s winter prospects than the East’s, what you’ve laid out is in line with a lot of my thoughts as well.

    Obviously general expectations are for a(nother) warm/low snow winter in the Northeast. But a lot of that is based on generic La Nina composites which IMO are overblown in what’s essentially a neutral year. The Southeast ridge will be a factor, but highly variable in its presence. And a modest Southeast ridge isn’t the worst thing for New England snow prospects especially in the heart of winter. It moderates the air but prevents suppression, like we’ve been seeing with the current pattern that will ultimately go down as a “wasted cold” pattern if you’re looking for snow.

    The Pacific will remain critical to watch. The sort of pattern we’re in right now (Pac NW/Alaska ridge) has been hard to come by for several winters now, and I think there’s strong evidence that that’s more of a multi-year or even multi-decadal issue (I.e. preferential West Coast troughing and Eastern ridging in the wintertime). If the Pacific jet goes on blast and decides to unload on California and the West Coast once again, it could be game over in the East. But I don’t see that pattern “locking in” this winter.

    Ultimately, IMO I think the Northeast overall approaches normal snowfall for the season, with temperatures above the long term average for DJFM (practically a given for a seasonal period) but not massively so. And in a similar vein, I think much of the West Coast generally comes in near “normal” for temps and precip also in an up and down pattern.

    Reply

        1. The SE ridge is unlikely to be a major player without a notable La Nina, at least in a persistent form, so we will experience many weeks without its influence.

          Reply

  14. Joshua: thank you for checking in with us! I wish you nothing but the best and the door is always open should you decide to return.

    WxWatcher: it was great to read your thoughts on the upcoming winter! Hopefully, we will get opportunities to chat about it during the course of the season.

    Reply

  15. Looking at data on NWS/BOX NOWData:

    The lowest temp from all of last winter at Norton/Taunton/mi casa was 12. The last time that the temperature dipped below 10 (on a silent night) was +9 on Christmas Eve and Christmas Night, 2022 with an asterisk. It was -10 on February 4 and 5, 2023, but that was after an arctic blast!

    From the Way Back machine:

    The arctic boundary is just clearing the South Coast and crossing Cape Cod as I write this at 7 a.m. Friday, and now it’s time to endure about 36 hours of intense arctic cold, coming in on moderate to strong north northwest wind today, peaking tonight and very early Saturday, and easing by later Saturday. Please be safe if you have to be outside at all during this time. Recovery from this arctic blast will be quick from later Saturday through Sunday, when some areas will see temperature rises in the neighborhood of 50 degrees in 30 hours.

    Wishing you health and happiness during this holiday season, Joshua. Good to see you here this morning! 🙂

    Reply

    1. I had to look up Holden to see exactly where that is. I’m not TK, but I would say you should be in the bullseye for mostly snow. Who knows if the Boston area sees any snow this month? The MJO not looking good at all through mid-month at least, assuming I read the latest chart correctly. Enjoy your snow Christie! 🙂

      Reply

        1. It’s been a while! Good to see you as always. Enjoy the snow. Hope your 5 year old enjoys it! There will be more to come. 🙂

          Reply

  17. TK – I have a medical appointment tomorrow afternoon and won’t be returning home until close to dinner time. Any chance of a flash freeze? I know Boston won’t get any appreciable snow but perhaps snow squalls as the colder air arrives.

    Yes I live in Quincy now but I assume whatever Boston gets, Quincy does as well for the most part.

    Reply

    1. I do think that the wind will be strong enough that most surfaces can dry before freezing. However, if we should get a snow shower that’s heavy enough to coat the ground, that can cause issues with a partial melt / re-freeze. So be on the look-out for that, in case.

      Reply

  18. Quick review of weather expectations after a glance at the available guidance…

    Short term (the incoming system): No real changes to the thinking here. Clipper or quasi-clipper moving to our north. A lot of the precipitation we get is generated overhead tonight. Southerly air flow warms the lower atmosphere too much for anything in the way of notable snowfall for much of the region, certainly the coastal plain, while up to a few inches accumulate in the highest elevations to the north and west, and some minor accumulation can occur heading into the I-95 belt, most of which will disappear during the day Thursday. We do have to watch for those convective showers of rain and snow in the afternoon Thursday, associated with the cold front. The majority of inland areas see snow showers/squalls. The coastal plain can see either rain or snow showers, but specifically it can be a situation where a certain location starts with a burst of rain, then graupel / wet snow as the cold air arrives from above. Be on the look-out for these. Frozen precipitation from convective activity can cover the ground in minutes, sometimes even seconds, and can lead to immediate hazards such as reduced visibility, and delayed hazards like partial melt & refreeze creating icy travel conditions.

    Short to medium range (Friday / Weekend / Next week): Brr Friday! Windy & cold, but dry. A cold start and milder finish to the weekend. I did not really highlight this, but there’s to be a warm frontal passage around early Sunday that may bring a shield of clouds and some snow, but most of the snow should occur in northern New England, not down here in our area. This leads to a milder finish the weekend and early to mid portion of next week, when a series of low pressure areas likely track by to our west, with our area on the mild side. This will mean episodes of rainfall, which will be beneficial for cutting into the ongoing drought and also prevent late-season fires from getting going once again. Interesting set-up may be looming for later next week when we finally get a polar boundary through here and turn colder, but have one other potential low pressure area to contend with. December 12-13 hold the potential for some wintry weather somewhere in the WHW forecast area.

    Longer range (beyond next week): Despite CPC’s insistence on mild weather, I’m not so sure about this. Watch for a series of disturbances pulling cold air out of Canada and into the Northeast. The question to be answered is whether or not we’ll have to keep our snow shovels handy as we head toward Christmas. Don’t count it out.

    Reply

  19. First winter weather alert for my area for the season and it is a winter weather advisory. Where I am probably a counting to an inch of snow at most but travel north could be 2-3 inches of snow.

    Reply

  21. Ok, is it possible that it starts as snow here? I “think: so, although boundary layer warming should switch it over to rain.

    It is currently 36.8 here and it looks and feels like SNOW!
    I have NEVER seen it cloud over so quickly. One minute it was sunny and the next it was completely overcast and think enough to block out the sun.

    Here is the latest radar and according to my radar app, it is snow.

    https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard

    Here is my radarscope precipitation depiction. Snowing pretty good in N Central MA

    https://ibb.co/jJxMQ0L

    Reply

      1. Can see the effects of the warm ocean warming the boundary layer. If the Boston area gets into this little initial burst, likely to be snow, but by the time the main precipitation gets here tonight, the boundary layer will have warmed sufficiently for rain.

        btw, was/is this initial little burst expected?

        TK did say Brief light snow and rain around during early evening. so I guess so. 🙂

        Reply

  27. Hi Everyone,

    Thank you Tk for all the work you do and excellent winter forecast.

    Did anyone see the latest 23z Hrrr? Has upped the totals in Boston and down coast a bit.

    Reply

  29. This is happening in CT where it is raining in the valley areas and the shoreline and where I am got a pretty good burst of snow with a coating of snow so far.

    Reply

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