Thursday December 12 2024 Forecast (7:00AM)

68 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)

A healthy westerly air flow today and Friday brings colder air back to us. There will be some low level moisture that the atmosphere can squeeze out in the form of a few snow showers this afternoon and to a slightly lesser extent on Friday, which will be the colder of the 2 days. The weekend will feature dry weather with high pressure building into the region. A weakening low pressure area will approach Monday, bringing back the clouds and some precipitation – looking like a fairly minor system.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow shower in the afternoon, mainly north of I-90. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30+.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing snow shower early. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain (some mixed precipitation inland). Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Precipitation potentials December 17 (rain) and December 20 (rain/mix/snow). Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Potential for 2 precipitation events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

68 thoughts on “Thursday December 12 2024 Forecast (7:00AM)”

    1. At my location It rained to start and then a prolonged period of mix before finally turning to snow for the last 3rd of the storm. ended up with a foot. I think Logan had 9 inches if I remember correctly. inland areas 2-3 feet or more. That was a good one.

      btw at the time I was getting faxed weather charts and one of the NWS products had that system nailed a week out.

      Reply

    2. This event marked the end of the “snow drought”, by far one of our longest such stretches with “not a lot of snow” in the region, which started with the 1978-1979 winter.

      Reply

    3. In Lowell, it was multiple inches of rain that then turned to heavy wet snow that maybe totaled to 12-16 inches ??

      I didn’t keep data, but that system had to have dropped 3-5 inches of water equivalent precip in total.

      Reply

    1. They went from over 90 trails open on Monday to 44 today. Probably lost most of their natural terrain. But count should go back up some the next few days as they are able to fire the snow guns back up.

      Reply

  6. Thanks, TK.

    There was one big and glorious lightning flash as I drove through Belmont yesterday around dinner time on the way to Boston. Overall, it was the worst drive to work I’ve had in several years:low-visibility/high-traffic, plus ponding on several roads and spray-over on Soldiers Field Road. I prefer my interesting weather in January and February!

    Reply

  7. Thanks TK. 2.18” the final total here.

    As I posted near the end of the last blog, 0z Euro looks interesting in the long range… cold and several snow chances between the 19th and 26th.

    Reply

  11. Thanks, TK!

    Beautiful morning after an adventurous late afternoon and evening.

    3.05″ in the bucket!

    North, how did your cellar make out? Hoping it’s mostly dry!

    Reply

      1. The conferences were held. I did not attend because of the weather. I am hearing many families did not show. A colleague’s car’s windshield was hit by a tree on the way to school. She’s okay. The windshield shattered.

        I only had five families sign-up anyway. I will call them by the weekend.

        Reply

        1. Glad your colleague is safe !

          Yes, been down that road of phone conferences in place of the person to person conferences.

          Good luck Captain !!

          Reply

    2. The pump bucket was dry until I went to bed at midnight and then got water in the bottom. And I figured it would start rising but checked at 430 and was still at the bottom.

      How did you make out?

      I ended up with 3.12.

      Reply

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Well yesterday’s system certainly delivered and as expected
    the worst of the wind was to the South of Boston.
    Logan gusted to 51. Never made it into the 50s here. I suspect
    strongest here was low to mid 40s and Only Briefly. Mostly less than that.

    I will say that there was one brilliant flash of lightning and a tremendously loud crack of thunder as it stuck less than
    1/2 mile from my house. That was it for thunder and lightning.

    Now that the rain is done, HOW ABOUT SOME SNOW!!!!

    Reply

    1. Ugh, this is one of my pet peeves. When we get a big rainstorm in the winter, and people immediately say “if this was snow…” and apply a 10:1 ratio. That’s not how it works, for a lot of reasons, but mainly to be snow, air temperatures would have to be about 20 degrees cooler. At 32, the air can only hold half as much water vapor as it can at 50. So, that takes half of or your liquid total away right there. Of course, to be snow, you always would have needed a completely different track, which changes the atmosphere completely, meaning you like would have had even less liquid.

      Reply

      1. Of course that is correct, but we all know what he means.
        Sure it would not have been 28.5 inches of snow, but it would have been some decent snow and that is really all he intended.

        People do that, not realizing or totally ignoring what you stated above. Yup, understand completely that it would be a pet peeve.

        Mine is people (including Mets sometimes) using the word
        Normal to mean Average.

        let’s take an example for Logan. Sometime in the middle
        of January the ave high is 36. Now let’s say we have
        a cold day with high in the upper teens, say 18.
        Now some would say it is 18 degrees below Normal

        NO SO!

        It would be 18 degrees below AVERAGE.
        And be PERFECTLY NORMAL for it to be a high of 18 degrees in the middle of January.

        So, I get you totally. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Some would still argue that they are interchangeable. 🙂

        Reply

  18. Thanks, TK.

    We got some heavy downpours yesterday, especially during the morning. But we did get a lot of rain during the day and evening. Winds were gusty at times. We are getting sun and clouds today with gusty winds. WBZ mentioned this morning we could get another storm nxt. wk. Would be nice if was snow!

    Reply

  22. Mark, they are saying the collapse is suspected to be weather related.

    Very sad night for Uxbridge. I did read one person was taken to the hospital and pray he or she is all right.

    The partial building collapse is at the intersection of Rt 16 and South Main Street in the center of town. TK, the person who along with you helped me find a pyrotechnic co for Halloween operates Mendon Street Kitchen …the small house like building beside the collapsed building. The kitchen funds Uxbridge first night that you just attended. The entire area is shut down. In addition to creating a traffic nightmare, I would imagine the businesses will struggle. And certainly the folks who had apartments in the building.

    It breaks my heart to see old buildings come down.

    https://www.wcvb.com/article/roof-of-a-building-partially-collapses-in-uxbridge/63165846

    Reply

    1. A few rain events in late autumn does not necessarily mean a rainy winter. This is more reflective of the current pattern and the MJO.

      Reply

  27. I don’t think the drought monitor map is quite up to date for us. Extreme drought still? Doesn’t seem likely. The update next Thursday might give us a better idea.

    Reply

    1. The drought monitor that is released on Thursdays uses data through the Tuesday before it. But yes, we’d still be in drought even if yesterday’s was counted.

      Two rain events won’t put an end to the level of drought we’ve been in. It’ll take several more of those.

      Reply

  28. Guidance has been hinting at a 2 part system early next week. It still looks that way, but they are trending toward less impact.

    Light mix later Monday (mix meaning snow/mix/rain in some kind of distribution TBD).

    Glorified frontal passage Tuesday.

    Cold air returns behind that.

    This is not really that warm a pattern, despite having several hours of very mild weather during the last event. Boston’s current departure is -2F for December. Yup, colder.

    Here is also an example (so far) that a colder month does not necessarily mean a snowy month (so far). If you don’t sync the cold with the precipitation, you’re not going to accumulate frozen stuff. That said, I see some changes on the horizon with that, so make sure you do have a snow shovel handy before too long. ‘kay? ‘kay!

    Reply

      1. Actually, not quite. I mean everywhere and anywhere in SNE. You can’t define boundaries like that this far in advance for systems that have yet to materialize. Leave that to the experts. 😉

        Reply

  29. I see CPC is paying more attention. Finally got rid of that overly-aggressive above normal temp forecast that didn’t need to be there. 😉

    Reply

  30. Thanks, TK.

    Rainshine, I am sorry to hear about your and your husband’s health woes. Wishing you better health as we end this year and begin a new one soon.

    For those of you who are interested, I am very busy writing articles and doing my research projects on health and healthcare. You’ll find links to them here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

    I believe they’re chronological, with the latest one first. If you scroll down you will find older ones – well, from a few days or weeks ago.

    Feel free to distribute or repost on social media if you like the content. The more views the happier my editors are.

    Reply

    1. Good luck with your research.

      What a topic right now !

      The amount of people sharing stories of health care companies and battles with them to cover things.

      And the amount of people sympathizing with the horrific tragedy in NYC.

      You won’t be short for topics.

      Reply

  31. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

    Decent agreement on the PNA teleconnections next 7 days.

    More uncertainty on the NAO and especially the AO

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    NAO, the average trending from positive towards neutral.

    Maybe an active meridional pattern. Like to see that NAO a little more negative so arctic and polar air masses don’t mostly go straight east from eastern Canada into the North Atlantic Ocean.

    Reply

  34. I rather it be dry and cold than dry and warm or warm and wet, it allows ski areas to make snow.. Honestly after the last several years this winter has been good for ski areas… of course the year I won’t get to enjoy it at all. Meanwhile its going to be in the 90s later this weekend and early next week here, possibly 100s. Its going to be interesting have 90s but low humidity lol.

    Reply

    1. I agree re snowmaking. For too long snow areas have dealt with snow then warming to melt snow.

      Enjoy you new home. I love that you keep in touch here.

      Reply

  35. Boy the models are very close to something bigger around 12/19-12/20. Nice set up for east coast storm development 6-7 days from now. Definitely a watch period.

    Reply

      1. Eh…………not that great yet. It’s also getting weaker aka less of a factor.

        This is something I talked about in my winter forecast.

        Reply

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