Friday December 13 2024 Forecast (7:01AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)

A colder westerly air flow continues today between a large low pressure area in eastern Canada and high pressure building into the Great Lakes. High pressure will build eastward into New England with dry and chilly but more tranquil weather this weekend. Early next week, our weather will turn unsettled. Monday, a warm front will approach and a batch of moisture with it will start to dry up as it runs into drier air with high pressure hanging on just to our east. The air will be cold enough so that any precipitation that makes it in can be in the form of snow, especially over inland areas, with rain more likely near the coast. However, this system may end up quite moisture-starved and quite minor. Low pressure will pass north of the region Tuesday, dragging a cold front through with associated rain showers as the air will be milder as that system passes by.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix coast, mix/snow inland. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Fog patches. Chance of drizzle. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Trending colder. A couple of precipitation opportunities (December 20 & 22).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Potential for 2 precipitation events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

57 thoughts on “Friday December 13 2024 Forecast (7:01AM)”

    1. Wish it would translate into some snow, at least for Christmas.
      I’d be happy with a nice gentle 2-4 inches falling on Christmas
      Eve. Enough to be festive, but NOT disruptive. Am I asking for too much?

      Reply

  6. Thanks TK.

    6z GFS for the 19th:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024121306&fh=153&dpdt=&mc=

    Definitely appears we are going to have a storm along the east coast 6 days from now. It’s going to come down to track, how quickly the storm develops and the availability of cold air. Some inland areas definitely in the game for accumulating snow but may be more difficult along the coast.

    0z Euro was more amped/west and had a rainstorm while the 0z Canadian was flatter and further off shore.

    Reply

  9. Brush fire in Woburn threatening a couple homes, started by electric vehicle fire on 95 that the fire department can’t extinguish.

    Reply

  14. So don’t see any biggies right now but there will be cold air around leading up to Christmas and maybe 1 or 2 chances to whiten the ground.

    Reply

  18. If you read my winter forecast & recall this, I talked about MJO being marginally favorable in phase 6 early in the season (most favorable in 7, 8, and 1, followed by 8, 1, and 2 as the season progresses). It’s not “ideal”, but it can help deliver wintry opportunities. And while it may be rather weak and its help limited, I do think it may be a marginally favorable factor for a southern New England snow chance next week.

    Don’t ask me for specifics, because they’re impossible to determine. So things like “It’ll happen in town A, but not town B” or “It may happen in the mountains but not here” are immediately invalid statements. True science does not allow these to be made this far in advance.

    Summary: SNE has a shot at some snow next week. Stay tuned…

    Now rewinding a bit, leading up to that I don’t really see any changes through next Tuesday (my 5-day forecast period), so what I wrote this morning stands.

    Have a great weekend!

    Reply

      1. Cold enough for some light snow/mix at the onset Monday.

        Tuesday/Wednesday/early Thursday….yes, too mild and whatever falls is rain.

        Cold air returns later Thursday/Friday and we are back to a snow/mix/rain threat if that late week storm threat ~12/19 materializes in some fashion.

        What I posted above is the following storm threat for 12/22. That one should have even colder air to work with.

        Reply

  22. My wife and I saw about 20 meteors in 20 minutes, despite the bright moon. Now we’re seeing some from inside the house, where it’s a bit warmer 🙂

    Reply

    1. I love it. I was outside stargazing. Venus earlier (set in the evening), bright moon, Jupiter nearby, Orion, Mars, and a couple Geminid meteors. 🙂

      Reply

      1. But it wasn’t way too early for you to say the other day that nobody south of Boston would see any snow and it was going to be a warm month?

        I said the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean says that.
        I know you don’t want it to snow but you don’t have to shoot down actual information that I just posted.

        Fact: The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean says exactly that. Did I say it was my forecast yet? No. I said that’s what the ensemble mean says.

        You know how I do this. I’ve been doing it daily for a really long time.

        Reply

        1. I am still trying to understand forecast models. Does the “ensemble” lead to closer verification in the outcome as opposed to just the 00z itself?

          Of course I understand it’s still a little more than a week away regardless.

          Reply

          1. In the longer range, better to look at the ensemble mean than the operational runs which can vary quite a bit from run to run depending on the exact data they initialized with. The operational runs become more accurate as you get closer to the event.

            Reply

          2. Mark’s answer is adequate.

            The ensemble means are generally better beyond a few days than any given single run.

            There’s so much variability in the simulations’ accuracy, statistically the “average” of a bunch of simulations will be better than any single simulation.

            Reply

        2. I don’t mind if it snows as it would be awesome if we had snow on the ground for Xmas . I’m not shooting you down at all . It’s definitely colder next weekend with Sunday looking the coldest in the upper 20s, over a week away so we will see how it unfolds, thanks Tk

          Reply

  25. The Geminids went nuts after 1:00 a.m. … I have never seen so many meteors in a 2 hour stretch of time, and this with a bright moon shining. At one point I saw 3 meteors in a 10-second span of time.

    Reply

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