DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)
Our weekend weather will be dominated by a large area of high pressure. This high moves in from the west today with below normal temperatures and a subtle northwesterly breeze, lighter than yesterday’s wind, and unlimited sunshine – a halcyon day. The center of the strong high will be right over us tonight, providing the perfect set-up for any solar heat escaping quickly to space, sending temperatures below 20 (except in urban centers), and below 10 in the normal cold spots. Despite the bright, nearly full moon, tonight will be another good night for observing Geminid meteors as we are just coming off the peak of this active meteor shower. Dress for the cold if you decide to head out for that! Best time to view is late night. Open sky / low light pollution areas are best. While the moon can hinder the view of the meteors, it will add to the spectacle of the night sky in close proximity to Jupiter and Mars, the constellation Orion, and other bright stars. High pressure drifts off to the east on Sunday. As this happens, a very cold morning will be followed by a recovery in temperatures to just slightly “warmer” than today’s highs, but still running below normal for mid December. We may see some low clouds start to drift in from the ocean as a light east to southeast air flow begins. Additionally, the approach of a trough of low pressure from the west will make itself first known with an increase in high level clouds from the west during the course of the day. This leads us to some unsettled weather for early next week. Low pressure will organize in the northern Plains of the US and track toward eastern Canada via the northern Great Lakes. A warm front extending from this low will approach on Monday, and this will initiate a batch of light precipitation moving into our region from the west that day. With enough cold air in place, some light snow can occur, especially from the Boston area north and west, with odds favoring a light mix to rain to the south. As warm air moves in aloft, the snow would flip to rain / drizzle, still on the light side, but surface temperatures can still be cold enough away from the coast to promote some icing, so we’ll have to watch for that and fine-tune the short term forecast as we get closer to that event. Finally, the warm front will be just making it into and across the region as the system is occluding, and this occluded / cold front will sweep west to east across the region Tuesday morning and midday with a band of rain showers with milder air in place. This system will be a far cry from the bigger rain producer earlier this week. Dry weather returns during the day Tuesday and lasts through much of Wednesday, but clouds will already be making an increase ahead of the next low pressure system later Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of light snow to mix inland and mix to rain coast. Some potential for icing from freezing rain/drizzle away from the coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Fog patches. Chance of drizzle. Temperatures 35-42, slowly rising overnight. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely morning to midday. Clouds break for intervals of sun afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start / cloudy finish. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Unsettled weather early period with odds favoring rain but a potential mix/snow ending of the system on December 19. A colder trend follows. A snow shower chance exists later December 20 and a snow or snow shower opportunity is a potential for December 22 and/or 23. A more detailed look at these systems will appear in tomorrow’s blog post.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)
Potential for 2 precipitation events. Temperatures below normal through Christmas, then a moderating trend.
Thanks TK !
Glad to hear the Gemenids were putting on a great show overnight !
Thanks TK
Thanks TK.
Low of 15 this morning brrr.
Water temperature still 53 degrees at the Block Island buoy.
47 up this way.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Down to 21 this morning here, coldest of the season.
Nearly a Perfect Winter day yesterday (yes, I know it is still autumn) High here was 32+ but less than 32.5. Wind had a bit of a bite, but I didn’t mind it one bit. I’d take this all Winter long, but there will be the inevitable ups and downs.
We shall see with that “storm” down the road. Operational runs not looking so good. Euro ensemble spells something, but even with that, “may” still be rain or mix near the coast. Still more than a week out, so we’ll just have to wait, but something is clearly up for sure.
Oh, may I please rant a bit. NOT aimed at TK at all. Wanted to say that right up front. 🙂
This rant concerns the INCESSANT reporting on current and forecast wind chills. GIMMIE a break!! It was NEVER reported when I was growing up. If it was cold, it was cold. We damn well knew when it was windy it would feel colder. We didn’t need some MET telling us so.
I think the ONLY time those should even be reported would be when they are at dangerous levels like well below zero that could cause frostbite. Otherwise, leave us alone with that
CRAP!!!
End of rant. Back to your normally scheduled programming.
I generally agree with the rant. The over-reporting and over-hyping of subtle wind chill is widespread in media. AccuWeather even has their own “feels like” temp which is often highlighted more in their forecasts than the actual expected temperatures. I don’t agree with this method and I would never practice it. I do highlight wind chill most especially when I feel it’s notable for discomfort and more importantly some threat to one’s well-being if outside (same for heat index – another stat that is over-used to some degree … pun intended? haha).
Thank you. As I said, I have NEVER noticed wind chill hype in your forecasts. Like you said, when you mention will chill it is appropriate. I don’t need to hear that it will feel like 25 when it is 38 or 40 out. The over reporting of that is a JOKE. 🙂 🙂
Sometimes earlier in the season when it’s the first or second round of notable wind chill I’ll mention something like that.
I vividly remember temps being stressed when we skied. We’d know whether to put a blanket on the car engine overnight 😉 And we were very aware of wind and cold because of chair lifts, especially raised cars. I do recall just understanding when it was too cold to ski (twice as I recall) and when to wait for temps to warm during the am before heading to the slopes. I don’t recall wind chill or even seems like in summer. Maybe I’m just forgetting.
Saw an article that there may be a push to end DST
This may work for Cleveland OH or Detroit, MI in the western part of the eastern time zone, where in June with DST, the sun sets at 9pm.
But in eastern Mass, it would stink !!
Who the heck needs the sun to come up at 4:07 am and without DST, the LATEST sunset would be 7:25pm.
So even during the longest days of the year, it’s dark by 8pm ???
One time solution does not fit all.
Why not? Pick one and get used to it. 🙂
That’s just my thought, but I can roll with it either way. 🙂
It takes me 1 and only 1 day to adjust to the time change.
My wife takes about 3 weeks.
Hi Tom…..on our recent drive to Mississippi, we went through the time line between EST and CST coming and going. We were musing about people who live just steps from the change line. What if they have an appointment with a doctor 500 feet from their house in the other zone? What if they don’t have a cell phone or smart watch? What if they work in EST until 5pm and then arrive home at 415? Do they have to go to sleep an hour earlier?
Just another humorous aspect of living in a country with so many time zones.
Indiana’s DST History:
Before 2006, most of Indiana did not observe Daylight Saving Time (DST). However, some counties used DST, which caused great confusion. To rectify this, Indiana passed a bill in 2005 ensuring that the entire state would use DST.
I have a friend who once lived and worked in Indiana. But, one of those places used DST and the other didn’t. There were some confusing days indeed!
Well we know permanent DST doesn’t work having tried it in the 70s. I didn’t know when sunset and sunrise times would be were we to stay on standard. Thank you Tom.
Although, the 12Z GFS operational run shows a miss
for a storm that goes out just South of us around the 21st-22nd.
However, it does show several bouts of Ocean Effect snow
with some small accumulations.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024121412&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
We’ll see how that pans out. 🙂
Waiting on the Euro
About that wind chill rant! Agree it gets hyped, but what bothers me most is that some of the public goes away thinking the wind chill number is the forecasted temperature.
Indeed, that certainly happens!
I get this all the time in my queries from people.
“Hey they said -10 for a high today”
No ….
I detest the use of the word they when attributing a comment.
I do as well. Sometimes I will counter with “can you tell me who ‘they’ are?”
Thanks TK
Up to 30 from a low of 11. I missed the meteor showers and the drone spottings in sutton
Today was my mother’s birthday. She would have been 95! Actually that’s an achievable age these days. 🙂
Had a great conversation with a lady at work yesterday. She’s 99. If you met her, you’d swear she was no older than 75, looks and everything else.
Happy heavenly birthday to your mom. Hugs to you, Phillip.
Thanks Vicki. 🙂
Now we’re entering the fad of flying drones to get reactions…
Par for the course.
Well some maybe. Some are dangerous, especially when they enter air space. And they have. But many reported are not toy drones. Some are quite large.
I just listened to this from a NJ Mayor.
New Jersey division of fire safety released an intelligence briefing to Mayor Ryan Herd, (R) pequannock, nj and I’m suspecting others that said….
if you see a downed drone, do not touch, call 911, the bomb squad is to go out and only people in hazmat suits can approach.
And we split the uprights with the Euro. 🙂 🙂 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024121412&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
So, the operational runs have SICKENED me today, I hope there were initialization issues with all of them!! FIWI, the ensembles aren’t a whole lot better either.
Close to 60 Tuesday . Ch 5 saying nothing promising next weekend as far as snow maybe a few flurries.
“way too early” 😉
A week out plenty of time for things to change.
18Z GFS Kuchera Snow through 7PM Christmas Eve
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024121418&fh=246&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
That will look different on the 00z op run, because the op runs show the most inconsistency and are the last dependable beyond day 4.
EPS mean snowfall forecast continues to cover most of SNE by the solstice – not with deep snow cover, but snow cover nonetheless.
Will it be enough to end the 4”+ streak? I believe it’s now at 1,023 days if I haven’t lost count.
I would so love to stop counting. ❄️
Can’t forecast snow amounts specifically this far in advance, so we’ll just have to wait and see. There’s also no guarantee that projection is correct. But what I do look for is consistency. I’m seeing it from the EPS.
One thing is nearly certain: Boston is going to end the month with a negative temperature departure.
According to JR, the record “streak” is 1,772 days (February 1988 – December 1992).
We won’t break it.
As I said, this “snow drought” is NOTHING compared to the one from 1978-1979 to 1991-1992.
There’s a ton of “recency bias” in the general public. Nobody wants to do any research. Nobody wants to listen to people like myself, SAK, JMA, WxWatcher, you know the professionals, who actually know what they’re talking about. And when I say “nobody”, I don’t mean people here on the blog. We have a great group who will listen and learn. I am talking about the public in general. That’s painfully obvious on social media, for example, where the majority of shares about weather are from unqualified sources. You can even see the frustration in our local media. Folks like JR, Pete, Eric, etc. have to mention on-air now to be cautious of information you see online.
#facts
So glad that I was introduced to this blog back in 2010-2011. 🙂
Too bad the original WBZ wx blog deteriorated so quickly. So glad that you stepped in and created this one.
Thanks TK! 🙂 ❄️
You’re welcome. 🙂
Yeah I loved that blog from WBZ, but as Barry told me, they didn’t put anybody there to moderate, and the mets didn’t have time to do it, so the trolls just took over.
Bruins with an absolutely dominating performance in Vancouver tonight, up 5-1 with 8 minutes to go in the 3rd period.
100% correct: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1866649904241930283
Caution: As good as the ECMWF has been recently, beware of the details of the operational run, particularly its simulation around December 21. It’s not going to happen exactly like that. It’s going to take several more days for the guidance to find the correct solution for around that time.
Let’s just hope that final solution can squeeze out 4-6” of Christmas snow! I honestly can’t remember the last one around here. ❄️
Not sure if the “4 inch” thing ends before December 31 yet.
Well unless we pop anything between now and Xmas, past Xmas certainly looks warmer into early new year. I am reading that by early January things look again more interesting. We shall see.
Very chilly this AM 16.2 coldest so far.
Christmas itself might be rather cold.
New post…