Tuesday January 7 2025 Forecast (7:21AM)

144 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

While the media is in a frenzy about computer model runs, I continue to look at the weather situation from an objective scientific point of view, and today’s prognostication will look a lot like the one posted 24 hours prior. The theme for today through midweek is cold, dry, and breezy / windy, on the back side of a large low pressure circulation in Atlantic Canada – part of a large scale blocking pattern that has been steering storms to our south and then collecting their remnants in a giant whirlpool of air to our northeast. This continues, with largely dry weather for our region. While I can’t rule out a passing snow flurry today and Wednesday, a trough coming around the back side of the aforementioned low pressure area enhances the snow shower chance on Thursday, and we’ll have to monitor these for the potential of delivering some minor accumulation to portions of the region. Behind this, a gusty northerly breeze continues Friday, but that day should be absent of snow shower chances. Now to “day 5”, a day that has been overly focused on too far in advance because of computerized atmospheric simulations, some of which have shown an epic snowstorm – and the vast majority of which have not, but have been often ignored in the name of hype, views, and clicks. Well, keeping it real, yes there is a “threat” of a storm system of some kind as we get to the weekend. There will be a storm system coming out of the South and heading for the Mid Atlantic Coast, and another “piece of energy” in the form of a trough swinging our way via the Great Lakes. Both of these are likely to be impacted by the blocking pattern in place, which will have shifted barely enough to allow the Atlantic Canada low to nudge eastward, but not far enough to exert its influence on the southern system, which is more likely than not to begin missing the region to the south, or maybe grazing our region’s southern reaches, during Saturday, while what remains of the northern energy brings us a snow shower threat. Obvious monitoring and refining of this outlook as necessary, and I’ll speak of it as needed in the comments and more thoroughly on tomorrow’s post.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible with potential dustings. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A possible snow shower. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often under 20.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasional under 10.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers likely with minor spotty accumulation possible. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 26-33. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

Clouds and snow showers can linger into the late weekend (January 12), otherwise looks like more dry and cold weather on tap heading into next week – maybe a snow shower threat mid period period with a disturbance in the northwesterly air flow (about January 14).

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Mid to late period snow potential but highly uncertain scenario. Temperatures generally below normal.

144 thoughts on “Tuesday January 7 2025 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    The Euro hasn’t budged and the gfs seems to be slowly moving towards the Euro solution.

    Running out of time for a snow solution. Looks like it is not in the catds. We shall see.

    At least we were treated to some fun entertainment from The GFS.

    Reply

    1. While a “potential”, I don’t think a big hit has really ever been in the cards, based on the meteorology of the pattern.

      Reply

  4. For those without access to the 06z ECMWF – same deal.
    No phase. Touch of light snow / flurries up here. Low center from southern system may pass closer to Bermuda than it does to New England.

    Reply

    1. IF (BIG IF) the Euro were to change, shouldn’t we start seeing it, perhaps as early as the 12Z run today? Again, I said IF.

      Reply

  5. Thanks TK
    Totals from the storm yesterday
    Baltimore 6.6 inches of snow
    D.C. 7.2 inches of snow

    Will BOS see a 6 inch or greater snowstorm this season??? Time will tell.

    Reply

  6. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/conus_band.php?sat=G18&band=08&length=24

    One piece of the puzzle. This trof over southern CA will briefly become a closed low south of AZ and over the northern Baja of CA

    Euro projection in 48 hrs

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025010700&fh=48&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Having a harder time locating the northern piece of energy at this time, but I suspect it may be from somewhere in the water vapor loop below.

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=ak&band=10&length=24

    Reply

        1. That worked, thanks! It’s definitely closer. Let’s see if the 12z continues the trend. I have a good feeling about this one

          Reply

      1. I would take the 1-3″ the ICON is dishing out for Saturday. If we are going to be cold and dry, let’s at least whiten up the ground!

        Reply

    1. Which ones?

      HRRR 12Z starts aroun 8:00 AM
      NAMs 12Z starts about 8:35 AM
      GFS 12Z 10:35 AM
      ICON 12Z 10:00 AM
      GDPS 12Z 11:00 AM
      EURO 12Z 1:00 PM or even a bit earlier with the upgrade

      All times approximate and you can figured out the
      18Z, 0Z and 6Z runs accordingly. All times are start times, not completed times.

      Reply

      3. According to WeatherBell, here are the exact times the models run (all times UTC):

        ECMWF HRES 0513 – 0700, 1113 – 1215, 1713 – 1900, 2313 – 0015

        GFS 0330 – 0515, 0930 – 1115, 1530 – 1715, 2130 – 2315

        Canadian 0345 – 0445, 1545 – 1645

        ICON 0245 – 0330, 0845 – 0930, 1445 – 1530, 2045 – 2130

        Canadian RDPS 2.5km 0310 – 0350, 0910 – 0950, 1510 – 1550, 2110 – 2150

        Canadian RDPS 10km 0245 – 0320, 0845 – 0920, 1445 – 1520, 2045 – 2120

        NAM 3km 0145 – 0240, 0745 – 0840, 1345 – 1440, 1945 – 2040

        NAM 12km 0135 – 0245, 0735 – 0830, 1335 – 1430, 1935 – 2030

        HRRR :52 – :25

        Reply

  15. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2025010712&fh=51&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    (12z GFS now running)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2025010612&fh=75&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    (12z GFS yesterday when it showed a major hit)

    Major change in its handling of the northern stream energy.

    Its much further north on the current run and a bit weaker.

    This should be an OTS solution for the southern energy, but we’ll see if the northern energy drops a very light snow like the ICON suggests.

    Reply

  16. Snowfalls to date:

    ORH = 10.2”
    DC = 7.3”
    BOS = 5.7”
    NYC = 3.7”

    A 3-inch snowfall for DC would make this season to date quite interesting. 😉

    Reply

    2. Those are usually the red flag runs that we tend to not give a lot of weight to. When they are that far away from the mean, they are usually discardable.

      Reply

      1. And what did I say? When the pattern relaxes we’ll get a cutter or an inside runner!

        Of course, this is a long way out there. so who knows.

        But this outcome wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. 🙂

        Reply

  29. Hahahahahaha

    The GFS has butchered this first one and we’re going to assume its got Murphy’s Law correct on an event 306 hrs from now. 🙂

    Reply

    1. Well if it ends up 300 miles NW on this one then we can assume its 1/20 cutter depiction will in turn end up a raging benchmark blizzard here…. 🙂

      Reply

  31. The southernmost solutions have ticked a bit further north and the GFS has significantly settled south which means the models are converging to a likely track well south of us.

    Reply

    1. Thanks Jimmy James. I can’t recall if that impacted the framingham area.

      I remember an ice storm in 1991 too but it was on the 9th give or take a day.

      Reply

  34. Tomorrow more of that bitter cold in store. I hate it. I was telling a friend I’d love to be rich. Not for a lambo or a mansion or anything like that. Just so that I could leave for three months during the coldest times.

    Reply

  37. NWS discussion re: this Weekend’s storm threat

    The weekend into next week…

    Not much more in the way of clarity when it comes to the potential
    system lurking nearby around the Saturday time period. Odds continue
    to favor an offshore miss to the south by a coastal storm that is at
    this moment merely a trough of low pressure over southern
    California. For anyone hoping for a big snow storm, you`ll be
    rooting for this southern stream shortwave to phase with a second
    northern stream shortwave dropping out of western Canada. Over the
    past day or so, the GFS has been the only real global model to do
    this and strengthen it into a major storm directly over/near the
    70/40 benchmark. Other guidance including the ECMWF and UKMET fail
    to sync up these pieces of energy and keep the system suppressed to
    our south. Focusing on ensemble guidance at this distance, the GEFS
    ensemble isn`t too enthused, with a swath of 40-50% chance of
    3+inches while the EPS ensemble guidance is a shutout with 0% chance
    of 3+inches. FWIW, none of the EPS member lows pass over the
    benchmark; all are south and east. We will continue to monitor the
    possibility, but at this time odds of a high impact winter storm
    appear low.

    Reply

    1. I think it’s pretty clear-cut now.

      Also, the system won’t be “lurking”, which is defined as “hidden”. It’ll be in plain sight, just not making a direct it on SNE. So their choice of wording there is incorrect.

      Reply

      1. They do that a lot, but I know what they mean.

        I suppose this 2nd definition could be used in a stretch, but even that would be incorrect. 🙂

        remaining hidden so as to wait in ambush.
        “the trumpet fish is a lurking predator”

        (of an unpleasant quality) present in a latent or barely discernible state, although still presenting a threat.

        Reply

        1. I’m not a fan of the writing style of most media members these days. It’s really not that good. Grammar is poor. Word choice is poor, with many times words used for something they don’t even mean. People will say “hey TK stop nit-picking”, but I’m actually 100% correct. Bad grammar and word choice is what it is – no sugarcoating needed.

          Reply

  39. Winter Storm Watch up for the Dallas Fort Worth area.
    Who had that on the winter bingo card before winter started?

    Reply

    2. I think the weather will have little impact on weekend travel (maybe some light snow around Saturday from the northern energy).

      Reply

    1. If state lawmakers have a brain (which is a lot to ask, I know), they won’t allow that surplus to be spent as currently proposed…

      Reply

  47. 18z GFS not much change from 12z:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010718&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow for Saturday with a light coating for most, a bit more SE:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010718&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

    Ensemble mean also finally consolidating around a track further south and now looks much closer to the EPS (except for one lone 970mb bomb closer to the coast):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2025010718&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

        1. Waaaaay too soon to lock in a snowfall departure.

          That said the way I think the pattern is going to play out heading beyond mid month would lead me to prognosticate near to above for snowfall.

          Reply

              1. Based on what I see out there for pattern analysis (I don’t mean reading models, I mean actual meteorology), it would seriously not surprise me one single iota if Boston ended up at or above normal for snowfall for January. This is only the 7th. There are 31 days. And if you base “no snow in the foreseeable future” on model runs, it’s not the right approach. 🙂

                Reply

      1. That team has lost its way. I adore them, but so far they give us moments of brilliance sprinkled occasionally on a lacklustre surface.

        Reply

        1. We were at the Patriots game Sunday and I was watching resale ticket prices go down last minute for the Islanders/Bruins game. Almost pulled the trigger and drove up to the Garden but decided we really needed one night of some down time. I knew is I decided NOT to go, it would be an exciting game and the Islanders would win. Of course that is what happened! But I will gladly exchange 2 points for me not being there. The Islanders need them more desperately than the Bruins right now.

          Reply

          1. The Isles played good game.

            I’m going to a game in February against Toronto. Hopefully they’ve found their way by then…

            Reply

  51. Wow, CPC got brave. Not too often you see a map like this from them. 😉

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    On a similar note, our dry regime is good for just under 2 more weeks, and then we flip to an above normal stretch of precipitation in the last 11 to 12 days of January, which I suspect will push snow totals across much of SNE to near to above normal for the month.

    Temperatures solidly below normal for the next 12 days, near to below normal thereafter.

    Reply

          1. We moderate at times, but we also get visits from cold. Don’t see a flip to a really mild pattern though.

            Reply

            1. I can deal with that and would be a good pattern for the ski areas as well in terms of snow retention. Just hope we can mix in a little storm action.

              Reply

              1. In my meteorological opinion, the quick temp drop in the Atlantic (Atlantic Nina) that occurred in the summer, which emulates conditions more like they are during a negative AMO (only temporarily though), is playing a role to some degree in the large scale pattern. I firmly believe that index has a major impact on the global climate. We remain in a positive phase overall, but looking back into the last at the few cycles we’ve observed since this index was identified, there are brief periods where the index is opposite its long term phase. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that it’s much easier for the central and eastern US to be cold this early winter. I’m not saying it’s the only reason, but I believe it is one of them.

                Reply

  52. Thank you TK!

    Just finished working after a 14 hour day. Was hoping for some big changes and lots of talk about snow but I shall be patient and see what the mid/end of the month has to offer.

    Reply

      1. Pretty much what I was going for since 3 days ago. A little snow from the northern energy – not the southern storm.

        Reply

    1. Thankfully the wind starts to diminish steadily tomorrow.

      Friend of our family is out there but for him, thankfully the fire is moving away from his location.

      Reply

  55. GFS continues to correct to the right solution as we get inside 4 days, as it often does with storms that it totally malfunctions on several days out. This obvious bias in the model is easy to spot with the use of meteorology.

    Reply

  56. Thanks TK, want to pass along to all that I’m safe from the fires here, I live in a very low risk area well removed from the wildland urban interface. Definitely keep this region in your thoughts, it is a catastrophic event unfolding here. Daylight is going to reveal unimaginable devastation, although we may not even see the extent of it until Thursday when the winds are finally light enough for aircraft to fly again.

    Reply

  58. TK – Does DC sneak ahead of Worcester come Saturday? Will they get as much as the last one?

    To date:
    ORH = 10.2”
    DC = 7.3”

    Reply

  59. On the 11:00 newscast, Mike Waunkum exposed on air the outrageous forecast snow amounts on social media. He’s the first tv met I’ve seen to do that. Glad that your message is getting out TK!

    Reply

    1. Pete and Eric have both done it. Several others in Boston have also done this. Glad to see Mike taking part. They need to hit this and hit it HARD.

      Reply

  60. I feel bad for California, this is not their fire season, but here we are. We went from one extreme last year to another extreme this year for that area. This is our changing climate along with other aspects but the underlying issue is anthropogenic climate change at play here. The planet wants to be balanced. We are going to continue to see more and more of this unfortunately. Fire season is on here in Australia, have two large fires in the grampians (which is more like the Australian bush people think about when talking about Australia) but now also Otaways national park which is temperate rainforest.

    Reply

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