DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)
While a strengthening storm passes well to our south today and misses the region, it has a weaker upper level cousin with weak surface trough to its north, and that is passing through our region giving us a light snow event. However with the help of a developing mesoscale low and mini version of a NORLUN trough (a type of inverted trough that extends out the back side of the low and pivots around it) will help to enhance the snowfall a little bit for the North Shore of MA and perhaps to the NH Seacoast this midday and afternoon, before the system pulls away into the Gulf of Maine by evening. After that, high pressure to our southwest will nose into New England and provide fair, seasonably chilly weather for our region Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, low pressure will pass to our north, sending a cold front through. This may produce a few snow showers, and also kick up the wind with a slightly colder air mass arriving as we head toward the middle of the week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow, tapering off in the afternoon but lingering longest north of Boston and along the eastern coastal areas. General accumulation of 1 inch or less south of I-90, 1-3 inches north of I-90 except 3-5 inches in portions of northeastern MA and some eastern coastal areas. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 14-21. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mosttly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 16-23. Highs 29-36. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)
An additional round of snow showers from a disturbance in a cold northwesterly air flow early or mid period, then a snow threat presents itself late in the period as the upper flow shifts to southwest and brings moisture this way from the southern US. Long way to go for details…
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)
A shot of colder air follows a beginning-of-period snow chance, and another snow opportunity may follow around January 24.
Good morning and thank you TK.
SNOWING pretty hard here in JP at the moment.
Looks really Wintry out there.
Enjoy !!
Thank you TK!
Nothing exciting down here on the south shore, just some very very light snow. Par for the course these days.
Thanks, TK.
Ditto to JpD’s report.
Thanks TK !
Seeing what Sue said.
Feather dusting with some flurries flying.
I’m looking forward to seeing what happens with the mesoscale low.
Love days like this.
Snow has lightened considerably, but still snowing. 🙂
We shall see what happens.
Moderate here – under 1 mile vis. with just over 1/2 inch so far.
This is all synoptic snow / no ocean-effect at this point.
There may be a little bit of O.E. involved as we enter the baby NORLUN stage up on Cape Ann and later down on Cape Cod, but that will be minimal.
Thanks TK
It looks like winter as I wake up. Cose to an inch of snow.
NE wind here. That certainly is not hurting.
Definitely not hurting, but not adding any snow. If you look closely at the radar loop, one level of echoes all moving southwest to northeast in this area. No lower level echoes moving to the southwest. Later, we will see some of these develop (some with the meso low / trough, some with just the wind flow).
Yes, I have and I too did not see any NE to SW movement.
I was hoping it was there, but just not visible. Will keep watching.
thanks
As of 7AM NY has recorded 0.5 inches of snow.
Any reports for BOS?
SNOWFALL STANDINGS
BOS 5.7
NY 4.2
I am thinking when the official measurement comes in for BOS they will be up by at least two inches.
Finally got a HOLY BATMAN this winter
From Meteorologist Justin Godynick from NBC 10 In Philly
https://x.com/JGodynick/status/1877744523494686795
What does this mean?
AceMaster that means with a negative EPO the cold pattern will persist. The question is can we get moisture to run into the cold air. Depending on the track this could bring opportunities for accumulating snow.
When the NAO comes back toward neutral or slightly positive that’s when we start bringing the main storm track north and Boston’s seasonal snow total starts going up.
I never understand why a lot of people think if you don’t have a negative NAO that is the kiss of death for snowstorms. As you pointed out many times TK when the snow blitz of 2015 happened the NAO was positive. I remember for the blizzard of 2013 the NAO was slightly positive.
I am hoping when we get around 1/20 that snow window stays open for a few weeks.
Exactly right. It’s not black or white. The NAO is only ONE factor of many. While it’s true that in the general sense, a negative NAO can be better overall for Northeast snow chances, it is not always the case. This time, it was less favorable as it was part of a pattern suppressing the storm track. And I always default to the best and most vivid example, as you noted, the 2015 snow blitz period … positive NAO the entire time, and not only one of the snowiest patterns we’ve had but one of the most sustained cold patterns too.
The radar will be interesting to watch for weather geeks the next several hours. Watch the snow area appear to slow down, and then you’ll eventually notice a consolidation or redevelopment along a line that has a WNW – ESE orientation, quasi-stationary, then a pivot southward. The western extent of that line will determine which areas get “extra” snow accumulation at the end of this event.
Being on the north shore, I suspect I’m good for a total of 3-4.” Been snowing light to moderate for 3 hours now maybe at a rate of 1/2″ per hour. Everything is blanketed. Temp at 30F.
You have a shot. I do think you’ll end up under 3, but please let us know!
Appreciate your explanation this morning. I wasn’t sure about the dynamics. A mini-NORLUN trough … I’m going to have to remember that one.
Not doing much now, just a few flakes to very light snow.
No sure I would trust the HRRR this morning. The 13Z run doesn’t even show the snow that is falling now. Something isn’t right.
And this is the model that’s supposed to replace the NAM?
As seen on radar, the snow has picked up to a steady light snow here.
Steady snow has returned here in Quincy. I assume Boston the same?
Just beginning, I think.
When we have to consider 2 inches an “overachiever” you know we have been in bad shape for awhile.
Thanks TK. I just did the drive from the South Coast to Long Island – glad I got on road early. Was not a bad drive at all – look like most accumulation near south central Conneticut- going to Melt anyway here when temp gets above freezing.
According to JR last night, it’s been 1,050 days and counting since Boston’s last 6”+ snow event. ❄️
I do find it interesting how these tv Mets are counting these things.
lf you look at this radar loop and look carefully near and “just” North of Boston, you will see a few echoes moving Westward from the Ocean into land.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
They are now present, yes.
I think I see it here too. What is the red?
https://streamable.com/h0gpd5
That’s an inaccurate depiction of sleet. It’s really snow. Corrected a few frames in.
Thank you. Very interesting
31 here.
Wind around to light N to NNW here.
31 here as well, at least according to my iPhone. I have always wondered how accurate they are.
It’s pulling from a nearby station, so usually fairly accurate.
Synoptic action over Plymouth County.
Thanks you, TK.
Just getting going. Looks to be 1.5ish here. Will measure shortly. Beautiful morning.
You or the snow? 🙂
Oops. Me
🙂
It did pick up a bit here but didn’t last long. Back to flurries. Nice to see it falling no matter the intensity.
Agreed!
It’s trying to snow harder here. Not quite there. Still a steady lighter snow. 🙂
1-3/8 in SE Sutton
Solar brightness plus the lightest breeze of the ocean has brought us above 32F and everything has melted.
We had a good 20 mins of steady/moderate snow. I’m guessing an inch worth that has melted. Oh well.
It just picked up the pace again here as well.
Finished watching a new series on Apple TV last night called
Before starring Billy Crystal.
My wife called it a Horror series while I called it a psychological thriller. Billy Crystal was unworldly in his performance! Absolutely outstanding!
Jacobi Jupe played the troubled child and was equally outstanding. How a child could pull off this part is beyond me.
He was unbelievably good!!
If you enjoy this type of show, it is well worth the look. If not, then likely not your cup of tea. 🙂
Thank you, JPD. Is it appropriate for young to mid teens? My granddaughters are fans of shows like the originals and vampire diaries.
Well that might be a bit iffy. It involves suicide (a cancer victim). No sexual scenes, but some violence and perhaps disturbing scenes. But is was oh so good.
Thank you. I’ll pass this to their mom before mentioning to them
Snowing a little better now with a gentle NW drift to the wind.
However, it “appears” the back end of the precip as shown on radar, is not far away. Will that be it? OR do we have a lull
and part 2 will begin? Or will there NOT be a part 2?
Time will tell.
Snow very light here. More like dancing in the air than falling. Very pretty.
Can definitely see echoes moving in from the ocean
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Been snowing here for 6 straight hours … light to occasionally moderate. I might get 3 more hours of this.
Hit the 2.0 inches mark in Woburn – still snowing.
I don’t think we have 2 inches here. 1 for sure, perhaps 1 1/2?
Lates NWS snow map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg
Been snowing light to moderate here for over 6 hours. 32F
Closing in on 4” in Brookline Nh. Just keeps snowing. I love it. Very nice suprise
I made an update to the blog a couple hours ago and readjusted the total accumulation … 3 areas: <1 south, 1-3 most, 3-5 in the jackpot areas northeastern MA, nearby southern NH as well. This higher potential still does include the eastern coastal areas from the meso feature.
The snow:water ratio is nearly 20:1.