Tuesday January 14 2025 Forecast (7:17AM)

84 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-15)

A northwesterly air flow brings us blustery and cold but fair weather today and Wednesday. A trough moving through tonight will bring a few clouds and perhaps a brief snow flurry to a few areas. A disturbance moving our way on Thursday will be preceded by a small high pressure area with a less windy day, but clouds move in and a period of light snow showers can occur before a potential heavier snow shower or squall in the evening as a trough passes. High pressure centered well to our southwest will nose in with fair and more tranquil weather Friday, and a cold start will rebound to a milder afternoon that day. While temporary, the mid January warm up will continue Saturday as a trough and frontal system approach from the west. This will result in a rain shower chance, but those may hold off until late.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing light snow shower. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, rising overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Colder air arrives to start the period and a wave of low pressure brings a chance of snow (may start as rain/mix southeastern areas) late January 19 into January 20. Fair, much colder weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Temperatures generally below normal with 1 or 2 opportunities for wintry weather.

84 thoughts on “Tuesday January 14 2025 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  3. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025011400&fh=147&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2025011400&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Even though the sensible weather changed on the GFS (no light-mod snowfall on the 00z run) and the Euro maintained a light snowfall event, the bigger picture pattern remained the same.

    I fully expect the back and forth on an event to continue until this comes into the shorter range.

    At least for now, this doesn’t look like a big, dynamic system, but more like the models have been showing, which is a boundary with a wave of low pressure along it and a potential moderate duration, warm air advection snow event over a cold dome of air.

    Reply

  6. Seems like this dry pattern just does not want to give up. I am really starting to doubt we get a decent storm this Jan i hope i am wrong.

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  8. Thanks TK! This pattern, while active and gives us a chance for accumulating snowfall, doesn’t appear all that dynamic. I don’t see phasing or bombogenesis on the menu. I’ll take anything at this point, but was really hoping to get a biggie out of this.

    Reply

    2. These boundary, with a wave on it situations can be excellent snow producers, not that this one will be. Sometimes though, while the intensity isn’t heavy, they can be long lasting and pile up over 18-24 hrs.

      Reply

  12. Looking at obs, evidently just to the west of Los Angeles is Point Mugu State Park. Northwest of that is the Saint Susana Mtns. In btwn those 2 features appears to be a valley of some kind and its in that valley that NE winds are very steady to gusty.

    Just to the SE of that in LA, at this time, the wind is 5 mph.

    Reply

        1. Well, frankly, I’m NOT liking this. I liked the 12Z Canadian, oh so much better!!!!!

          I hope it all comes together. Too much CRAP for me to be totally convince at this time. We shall see.

          ICONICALLY Speaking, we’re OK

          Reply

          1. So far, I haven’t been a believer in the MLK snow forecast. When I start seeing model run inconsistencies with wide variances and lack of model agreement, I become very hesitant about the forecast. A lot will have to come together by Friday to make me a believer. What I am actually hoping for is to see one biggie this winter. It’s been a while.

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  15. I know we have watched the Nws warnings for fire risk more than once. I thought this was a good explanation of warnings all in one place. (Note: Nyt removed the paywall for this as I donā€™t subscribe. Hopefully, others can open the link also.)

    Strengthening winds were creating the conditions for new fires in parts of Southern California on Tuesday morning, even as some of the most destructive blazes in the stateā€™s history were still raging without full containment. The National Weather Service issued an exceptionally rare red-flag warning for ā€œparticularly dangerousā€ weather that could lead to ā€œexplosive fire growth.ā€
    The serviceā€™s warning covered Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, and forecast wind gusts of between 45 and 70 miles per hour and very low humidity. Before this fire season, the Weather Serviceā€™s Los Angeles office had used a ā€œparticularly dangerous situationā€ warning only twice, both in 2020.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/14/us/fires-los-angeles-california?campaign_id=233&emc=edit_wft_20250114&instance_id=144707&nl=wildfire-tracker&regi_id=211897769&segment_id=188219&user_id=352f13e14cf6e0c8cc78b418bb342a69#what-fire-warnings-mean

    Reply

    2. I have my eye on this one everyday. My youngest daughter lives north of LA. We’re in touch each day.

      While living in LA, I had an employee who lived in the Palisades. Talked to her over the weekend … she and her husband lost their home! Good news is they are safe.

      Reply

      1. Iā€™ll keep your daughter in my thoughts and prayers. I am so very sorry to hear your friend and husband lost their home and very grateful they are safe.

        So far all folks I know in the area are out of range except Macā€™s cousin who has to evacuate. I have not heard how his house is

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  17. Not about individual deterministic runs, but about the pattern.

    #MeteorologyNotModelology

    The models are individual simulations, not actual pictures of what will be.

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    1. Have always agreed with this. However, there is a fun / entertainment factor in looking at model runs well in advance.

      As for MLK Day, the pattern indicates unsettled but I would hesitant about coming to a conclusion at this point. I did see a TV met talk about mix turning to snow for 1/20.

      Reply

    2. This is well understood, but we are getting close enough
      that the models “should” have an idea. Wish it were clearer.
      Will continue to watch, waiting for a change.

      Reply

      1. Given recent performance, it doesn’t surprise me of some (or all) guidance doesn’t really have any true idea, in terms of what we’ll see on surface maps.

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  18. Thanks TK. The dryness has really won out during this cold period across the East. Was always a possibility, although thinking thereā€™s a good chance of a moderate snow event in that 1/19-1/20 period. And completely agree that the last 10 days of the month now look quite intriguing for snow prospects as we head back towards what will probably be a milder February in the East overall, but with still enough cold around for wintry precip chances as things turn more active. I know JMA as well had talked about the transition out of (as opposed to into) the current pattern being most favorable for snow chances, and he may have nailed it.

    All is well, well as can be at least, here in SoCal. The winds weā€™re seeing this week are thankfully not near as bad as last week, but definitely still high fire danger conditions for a few more days here.

    Will be in town out there in MA end of next week, wouldnā€™t mind a bit of snow on the ground to welcome me šŸ™‚

    Reply

    1. I’ve heard this so many times in the past WITHOUT it ever materializing. Sometimes I think it is MET wishful thinking.
      We shall see.

      Reply

      1. This guy is also very objective and tells it like it is. He doesn’t hype anything. I think WxWatcher knows him and can attest!

        Reply

        2. Tomer is a total star, I spent one semester at U Albany with him, and that was more than enough to see that heā€™s a special talent. He just visualizes these patterns so well, better than I can. But, yes, as with any met, no one has a 100% success rate šŸ™‚

          Reply

  20. It just keeps snowing and snowing in VT. If you are a skier, head up to central/northern Vt. It has snowed virtually every day in the spine of the Greens since New Years.

    Killington reporting 4″ new in the last 24 hours and 23″ in the last week. 129″ on the season.

    Sugarbush reporting 7″ new today and 126″ on the season. They are now 100% open.

    Jay Peak reporting 8-12″ new in the last 24 hours, 28″ in the last week and a staggering 187″ on the season already. They are also at 100% open minus a few trails that are temporarily closed due to active snowmaking to build base.

    https://jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/snow-report-maps/snow-report

    And more snow in the forecast in the mountains the rest of the week, this weekend, and again early next week.

    Reply

  23. Euro has mid teens for high temps on Tues 1/22

    I do hope we get some snow because it actually might stick around for a few days.

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    1. And iirc, that was the last winter that Boston beat Worcester for total snowfall. šŸ™‚

      BOS = 54.0ā€
      ORH = 53.6ā€

      Reply

  28. I remember that day in 1998 when temperatures were in the 70s. My mom and I picked up the Christmas tree wearing shorts.

    Comment for Pete B.
    Maybe weā€™ll be able to cash in on the cash in on the coldest part of winter this year. Where does the boundary set up the next couple of weeks? Seems close by potentially.

    Pete B. Response
    Iā€™m digging the new pattern with general SW flow & the PV parked just to the north.

    Reply

  29. There are only 8 storms on record of 20 inches or greater at Boston.

    There are only 6 storms on record of 24 inches or greater at Boston.

    It’s not frequent. Although half of the 8 storms of 20+ inches have occurred since 2003.

    Reply

  30. I have only experienced two snowstorms so far in my life with 24 or more inches of snow.
    Blizzard of 2006 February 12th and blizzard of 2013 February 8th-9th.

    Reply

    1. Big snows like that are simply not frequent in southern and southeastern New England. They never have been.

      Snowstorms of 6+ inches are more infrequent on average at Boston than many people realize.

      Our current “snow drought” still pales in comparison to the one from 1978 to 1992. Again, yes there were a few bigger storms in there but the amount compared to the long term average was way down. That was immediately followed by the snowiest 30 year period on record, which makes me scratch my head when so many people I’ve come across have told me it doesn’t snow anymore. That could not be more incorrect.

      A lull since the early 2020s does NOT constitute “it doesn’t snow anymore”. I know climate history. It’s part of my area of expertise. I know what I’m talking about. šŸ™‚

      Reply

        2. Boston had a white Christmas last month. And they only were recorded as not having one in 2017 because of the fact the snow fell after 7 a.m. … A white Christmas in Boston is rare, especially at Logan (Around 20% of the time long term average, but that doesn’t mean you can’t go more than 5 years without one – that’s why it’s a long-term average).

          If you look back at all the Dec 25’s with 1″ or greater snow on the ground, there’s no real notable trend one way or the other.

          Reply

  31. After a review of the 12z info today … ZERO changes to thought process.

    And thanks WxWatcher for checking in again!

    Reply

      1. Yep, the pattern upcoming is not the same one we’ve been in.

        PV lurking just to the NW, Greenland high not there anymore, southwest-to-northeast jet stream instead of west-to-east.

        Reply

  33. Just looked at the Euro weeklies and not surprisingly showing below normal temps and above normal precip next week. In Feb, it is showing near to above normal precip and near to above normal temperatures depending on the week. Overall snow anomaly for New England is above normal for the month.

    Reply

    1. I guarantee you somebody will read “near to above normal temps” and immediately decide that will kill all snow chances.

      February’s near to above normal temps often encourage snow events. Near normal is definitely “cold enough”. Near to above normal tells you that you have a lot of battles, and/or a lot of overcast nights (during storms) where the temps don’t fall to typical minimums, but are usually quite cold enough for frozen precipitation. šŸ™‚

      Reply

  34. Another humor moment, brought to you by a post on X.

    I won’t share it here, but I’ll paraphrase / describe it.

    It’s a fairly well known “model enthusiast” who plays meteorologist but has no degree and doesn’t know meteorology, only how to read the models. Anyway, they saw that the blocking relaxes in the coming days. This person focuses on the Northeast. The post reads: “Goodbye blocking, goodbye winter” … So, it’s only winter if you have blocking? Alright, it’s been cold and dry. Cold. Winter. Colder than normal. That’s with the blocking. But the inference here is that the blocking is what gives us the snow chance, and when it “unblocks” the snow chances go away.

    Let me make some corrections to this thinking. For one thing, weather patterns are not that clear cut and text book. They’re complex interactions of multiple things. In our recent weather pattern, it has been the blocking that has largely PREVENTED snowstorms from happening up in the Northeast. A meteorologist will tell you that when the blocking relaxes in the coming days, the pattern for Northeast snow events IMPROVES. This is what the lack of experience and the lack of applied meteorology will do. Of course once again I’m preaching to the choir here, but I figured you’d get a chuckle out of this.

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  36. Regarding the big storm discussion above, I have experienced three 24″+ storms in my life:

    -Superstorm of 93 where we received 27″ in Amsterdam NY

    -Christmas Day snowstorm of 2002 and was again back home
    in Amsterdam where we received 25″ (I believe it was more of a sleet fest back in CT)

    -Blizzard of 2013 where we received 32.5″ in Coventry and snowed 6″ in one hour and 12″ in about 2.5 hours at one point. Never seen snowfall that intense in my life and probably never will again.

    I dont recall that December 12 2006 storm that JJ referenced but looking back at the radar loop, it looks like the intense banding set up just west of me so probably ended up with 18″ in that one.

    On January 12, 2011, the biggest storm in our 6 week snow blitz that year, BDL clocked 24″ but we “only” received 18″ in Coventry as we got caught in a subsidence zone in that one. Still an unbelievable snow month I will never forget with 60″ falling and snow depths reaching 40″ in my yard at one point.

    Ahh the memories…..

    Hopefully we can get luck and make a new one this year. We are overdue.

    Reply

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