Thursday January 23 2025 Forecast (7:05AM)

77 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

We now bid goodbye to the coldest of the air we’ve had, but not to the overall cold pattern, because more surges are mustering in Canada. Prior to hearing from those though, we do get a slight temperature moderation today, and a slightly more notable one (back to normal) on Friday, before a little set-back Saturday and a slight recovery Sunday. Low pressure passing to our south and a mid level disturbance keep clouds abundant for part of today. More sun on Friday will result from an area of high pressure nosing in from the southwest. A dry trough passage at night brings slightly colder weather Saturday but with continued dry conditions. After that, a pair of disturbances bring snow shower opportunities both Sunday and Monday, though neither of these will likely deliver anything overly notable in terms of snowfall, but they will start knocking us back into deeper cold again.

TODAY: Clouds gradually give way to sun. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A snow shower possible early. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A few snow showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Clipper system brings another snow shower chance and a reinforcement of cold air early in the period. Watching the end of January / start of February period for another system with a mix/snow threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Near to below normal temperatures. Pattern more unsettled with storm potentials start of and end of period.

77 thoughts on “Thursday January 23 2025 Forecast (7:05AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Euro has something brewing down the road. we shall see if it is still there with the 12z run.

    otherwise, yawn………

    At this point prospects for any more
    decent snow this month look slim.
    Here’s hoping next month is more productive.

    Reply

    1. Disclaimer: this is the first CFS model run I’ve peeked at in weeks.

      The 00z CFS looks like a rather active pattern after hr 400 or a couple weeks from now.

      Reply

      1. The CFS has been pretty good. It had the cold in December. It had the cold in January. It had the active pattern but a lot of “misses” for SNE.

        It has colder more often than not and more stormy in February and March.

        Reply

  3. Thanks TK !

    Quite a colorful sunrise this morning.

    Much of the high cloudiness turned orange and red in the eastern and southern sky.

    Reply

      1. I don’t know.

        The Euro is better, in my opinion, than the GFS at run to run consistency. There are not massive run to run differences.

        I’m not certain it will look exactly the same on the 12z run, but my guess is there will be a decent system at that time frame on the 12z Euro.

        Reply

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Back in Boston, albeit not for long, as I’ll be away most of February and part of March, taking care of an ill relative (and working remotely, per usual, as I don’t do much in-person stuff). Then back to London in April.

    Needless to say, dry cold (teens and 20s) does NOT feel as cold as upper 30s/40s and damp. The weather here in Boston does not feel cold to me. While I really love London and want to live there permanently, its weather is mostly boring, extraordinarily sun-deprived and feels cool to cold almost year round. You do get used to it, but can’t really dress for it. Raw weather has a way of burrowing its way to your extremities and body in ways that dry, cold weather does not, as long as you’re dressed for it.

    My flight yesterday went very far north, to Greenland, presumably in part to avoid Storm Eowyn, which is about to hit Ireland and Scotland, with limited impact on London. https://x.com/JudithRalston/status/1882043305950855233

    Reply

  9. Some thoughts on the longer-range pattern from a former co-worker who still pays attention to these things in retirement:

    The pattern I expected from early in January is falling apart a bit now, thought at that time it might become a bit more of a ridge in the East and trough in the West thus a warm-up, but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen very much now. I think 2 things are preventing this, the MJO is about to nosedive from the current phase 3 ( which is the cold pattern we now have) into the circle during the next 5 days, and the PV remains in place across the northern and northeast side of Hudson Bay. Once the MJO goes into the circle, teleconnections and PV position become the main governing factors. Models show the MJO staying in the circle through the 1st week of Feb., might emerge into phase 6 after the first week weakly. The PV is forecast by all of the ensembles to stay across the northeast side of Hudson Bay/northeast Canada for the next 16 days. The NAO and AO are forecast to become slightly positive but wavy, the PNA a bit more negative.

    I’ve been following the EPO this winter. The temperature anomalies across the eastern half of the nation have been pretty close to the EPO plus and minus signs to date. The EPO is currently very negative but is forecast to become positive for several days as January moves into early Feb. then makes a big dump negative about a week into Feb. If that follows what’s happened so far this winter, it might turn very cold again a week or so into Feb.

    So far the winter has been colder than I would have thought, but precip is just what I thought, below normal with below normal snowfall. I still think there may be an upswing in snowfall during the coming weeks. The clipper pattern over the next week or so could shift to a pattern with systems coming out of the southern Plains early in Feb. or so as most of the models are showing some ridging developing near the Bahamas at that time. Might start seeing more systems like we had Sunday night in a week or two. In the past, when some La Nina’s mature mid to late winter, storminess increases along with snowfall, something I still think is possible. We had a couple of these from the 80s into the 90s that produced big March snows

    Reply

    4. In addition to them being the main comedy relief back in the day, I also enjoyed hearing their longer range pattern sleuthing, which was always among the more accurate prognostications I’d hear. Learned a lot from this person!

      Thanks for sharing!

      Reply

  10. Good morning and thanks as always TK.

    Spring could not come fast enough. I am very much over this below seasonable temps.

    Reply

  15. The 12z ECMWF splits the difference between my thoughts of something around the 30th – 31st or delayed until 5th – 6th and gets active around the 2nd-3rd. Not sure its deterministic solution shows a sensible outcome

    I looked at today’s ECMWF weeklies into March. It doesn’t give me a strong push in any direction. Beginning in early February it goes into a rotating pattern of flatter zonal flows into western trough, eastern ridge, into western ridge, eastern trough on repeat through the first week of March, before hinting at more substantive eastern trough forming.

    I saw a mention last night that I delay onsets of patterns and pattern changes a lot. In reality I am being honest and open about how the actual outcomes appear to be lining up versus a modeled outcome, or in some cases trying to my own confirmation bias.

    Keep following the models. Many of you love it. Enjoy! I get the frustration for snow lovers. I am solely saying, don’t be locked into any one solution or specific timing.

    We have had 2 region wide moderate type snow events. December and January. It was unlikely to be an epic snow winter, but I do find the challenge of trying to forecast more than 4 days out this winter challenging. In my little mind, this winter epically fascinates me.

    Reply

    1. Thank you JMA. Nice to hear from you again.

      Watch and wait is all we can do. Not expecting much. Didn’t before Winter started. We shall see. Still plenty of Winter to go.

      Once we get to a certain point, I will be looking forward to Spring. No yet, but it’s coming. 🙂

      Reply

      1. Now that I rarely ski and my kids haven’t taken a liking to it (yet), if it’s not gonna snow, I yearn for the warmer weather when I can do so much more than being stuck in this icy purgatory

        Reply

    2. I think there’s a pretty widespread mentality out there in social media that any time any meteorologist mentions an “active” or “snowy” pattern, that it’s going to be a repeat of 2015. That was an anomaly.

      This particular winter so far is far different than the previous 4, and doesn’t need epic snows to be different.

      Long term averages are long term averages for a REASON!

      On a semi-related note, a colleague of mine is putting together some information regarding Gulf Coast snow events, and how they were more common back during the -AMO days vs the +AMO regime we’re in now, along with large scale, lasting cold outbreaks. I have been saying for a long time there is a major correlation between AMO and long term patterns. I am looking forward to getting more and more evidence to prove this to be true. I feel very confident it will be. 🙂

      Reply

      1. A slight edit to what I wrote above, it should have said..
        “but I do find the challenge of trying to forecast more than 4 days out this winter simultaneously aggravating and enjoyable.”

        Reply

        1. Yes, yes!

          I give the win to enjoyable, but the aggravating part is real too.

          Meanwhile, the fakers are out there skating a long by putting out so many posts saying the same thing that people just end up believing it and the built in excuses when things “go wrong”, for which we get blamed.

          Really hope there’s a way to put the lid on these sites.

          Reply

  18. I asked TK if I could share a FB post from our friend Emily. She has been updating the layoff of meteorologists. There is some good news. But it is important for folks to keep at the FCC

    Below is her FB post from last night. In the link, she explained how to reach out to the FCC. I will and hope many of us do. (If the link doesn’t work, I can post the entire txt. It’s long and I am trying to avoid taking up too much space here. Although it is an important enough issue to do so. See my reply to this

    Reply

    1. You did it! Allen Media is backing down! Your voices were heard loud and clear, and multiple sources have confirmed it.

      While not all staff and meteorologists are safe, a majority will remain in their roles. Earlier today, employees were informed of their termination dates, but this afternoon they were told, “Allen will no longer hub the weather from Atlanta and your job is still there.”

      This is a huge step, but the fight isn’t over—keep raising your voices!
      Confirmed through anonymous station staffers the following were told “the hub plan is scrapped”
      WAAY
      WSIL
      WQOW
      WTVA
      KITV

      https://ibb.co/RB015Pn

      Reply

      1. Current Allen stations:
        WTVA Tupelo, MS
        KIMT Rochester, MN/Mason City, IA
        KEZI Eugene, OR
        KDRV/KDKF Medford, OR
        KHSL/KNVN Chico / Redding, CA
        WTHI Terre Haute, IN
        WLFI West Lafayette, IN
        WFFT Fort Wayne, IN
        WAAY Huntsville, AL
        WEVV Evansville, IN
        KADN Lafayette, LA
        KITV/KIKU Honolulu, HI
        WAOW Wausau, WI
        WQOW Eau Claire, WI
        WKOW Madison, WI
        WXOW La Crosse, WI
        WSIL Carterville, IL
        KVOA Tucson, AZ
        WREX Rockford, IL
        KWWL Waterloo, IA
        WJRT Flint, MI
        WCOV Montgomery, AL

        Reply

  20. Rooting for both road teams on Sunday for the NFL conference championship games.

    Not much to add regarding the weather beyond my discussion.

    MJO not the snow lover’s friend for a little while yet, but the colder regime will continue with only modest warm-ups. Again I mentioned this reminding me of the -AMO days of the 1980s and I’ll have more to say about this going forward.

    Reply

  21. re: footbal this weekend

    I only care about 1 game and that is the KC – Buffalo game
    I want Buffalo to win in the worst way!!!! I can’t stand Mahomes and his bud, Travis Kelce!!!!!!!

    I think the world of Josh Allen and would lobe to see him win.

    Reply

    2. Good post old salty . So many People want KC to get tossed aside this weekend by Buffalo . A lot of folks call them cheaters as well . I want so bad to see KC get embarrassed & see that look on cry baby Mahomes face . KC is the only team in the entire NFL that I can’t stand .

      Reply

              1. I was kind of thinking that. 🙂

                I’m not a fan of KC, and I definitely think there have been some interesting calls / non-calls with their games, HOWEVER … There’s no denying the talent on that team, especially the QB. And Reid isn’t a bad coach either. 😉

                That said, I’m still rooting against them in their game this weekend. 🙂

                Reply

                1. I echo your comment. While the word hate is not in my vocabulary, there are too many teams not to have favorites.

  22. I will be rooting for whoever the AFC team is in the Super Bowl. As a Cowboys fan I can’t root for the Eagles or Commanders.

    Reply

  23. A couple weather notes…

    It’s not often you see 2 major global models depict a line of snow squalls through this area 5 days in advance, but it’s there run after run on both GFS & ECMWF for Tuesday January 28.

    Also, there may be a clipper with a period of snow sometime shortly after that BEFORE January ends. These are not often well-seen by guidance this far out.

    Reply

    1. I absolutely understand that I’m asking the impossible. I’m trying to schedule an appointment for the first week of February. I don’t drive in snow any more. I wonder if you see anything that week.

      Reply

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