DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)
Our temperature pattern will be a little less cold but still near to below normal for late January through this weekend and early next week. While we lack major storms to talk about, we do have several things to keep track of over the coming days. A weak area of high pressure will bring fair and cold weather to our region today and Saturday – slightly colder Saturday than today. Light wind will make the near to slightly below normal temperatures feel “nice” for late January in comparison to the deep freeze of earlier this week. Sunday, the wind will pick up with the approach and passage of a trough from the northwest. This system will have little moisture to with and therefore only a passing light snow shower is possible. By Monday and Tuesday, the wind will be more persistent and gusty, and while our air temperature moderates slightly, the wind will make it feel colder. This pattern will result from high pressure across the southern US while a large low pressure area moves from central to eastern Canada. The latter will drive a cold front southward into New England later Tuesday, and this can trigger a snow shower or even a snow squall at some point. This being day 5 in the forecast it’s impossible to talk about timing yet.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a light snow shower. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower or squall, more likely late than early. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to N by late.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)
Colder weather returns middle to late next week to round out January. Watching for a clipper low to bring a chance of snow or snow showers January 29 and high pressure to bring fair weather January 30 and 31. February 1-2 weekend is seasonably chilly but also carries a storm threat.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Another storm threat later in this period after a fair weather interlude. Temperatures not far from normal.
Thank you, TK.
Thanks TK.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK.
Milton FL received 9.8”…a new state record.
Pretty impressive for sure!!!
Why can’t we get snow like that? ha ha ha ha
Thanks TK.
Clipper threat on the models for next Wednesday the 29th looked a bit more interesting with last night’s runs. It digs over/underneath us on the GFS and ICON and delivers a light to moderate snowfall. Euro sends it SW of us as well but is weak with just some snow showers. Canadian does not seem interested with 1/29 but does deliver a snowstorm on 2/2. Will keep watching….
I noticed that on the clipper. In my experience, clippers
OFTEN (of course not always) track farther North than modeled. 🙂 🙂 we shall see this time.
I’ll believe additional snow when I see it.
I’m just feeling doom and gloom when it comes to snow chances.
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK
Single digit commutes this week!
Yes. Very thick frost on the car this morning which was sloooowwwwww to melt.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012312&fh=141&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025012312&fh=141&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
The above links are from yesterday’s 12z GFS. Sfc projection and 500 mb projection.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012400&fh=147&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025012400&fh=147&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
The above links are from today’s 00z GFS
VERY, VERy, VERY different sensible weather outcomes for southern New England btwn the 2 runs, yet only very subtle changes at 500 mb between the 2.
So, I think we know the big picture 500 mb pattern for this time frame, but a small difference at 500 mb is everything from a clipper just to our north with not much and one skirting the south coast with a plowable snow.
Yes, BUT you neglected to show the 6Z run which has it
a complete non-entity!!!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012406&fh=141&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
Oh. 🙂
I rarely look at the 6z run. No logic to this. I seem to for sure look at 00z and 12z and get mildly curious by the 18z. Maybe because 00z comes in at the start of the school day, which is hectic.
6z comes in at the start of the school day.
Understood.
MOST DISAPPOINTING to see that feature gone
on the 6Z run Perhaps it will reappear on the 12Z run?
🙂
Its back and I’d day its right in btwn yesterday’s 12z run and today’s 00z run for clipper low track.
Thank you, TK. And Also thank you for your advice for week after next.
Thank you TK!
Happy Friday to all! Sometimes the 4-day work weeks seem to last an eternity. 5:00 cannot come quick enough.
I am convinced the last three days were Friday. It sure is an odd week. And one month ago was Christmas Eve. How did that happen
Milton FL = 9.8” ❄️
Boston 2023-24 = 9.8” ❄️
Boston total to date = 12.5” ❄️
Storm (Éowyn) in Ireland-Scotland has delivered some serious winds. I think the sustained wind speeds are in the 50-65 mph range and gusts over 100 MPH.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cvg84p9v2e1o
Wow !!
Double wow.
You should move your Windy app over Scotland.
Thanks TK.
Boy, it’s cold in these parts! Lol. Nice to see some snow on the ground though 🙂
Gotta say though, the pattern does not look great for SNE snow lovers right now. The cold and dry goes on for about another week. But the Southeast ridge is looking increasingly menacing heading deeper into February, with the Pacific also finally showing some life again as well (great news for California at least).
Neither of those things in moderation would kill SNE snow potential, like we’ve talked about. But right now what’s being shown on the models would tip the balance too far (I.e., SNE could go straight from cold and dry to warm and potentially wet).
However, models in the medium/longer range have been too bullish on the Southeast ridge and too tepid on the Northern US cold for many weeks now. I suspect TK is factoring that in to his forecast. So if we do see a more moderate change in the pattern, there would still be potential for colder and snowier outcomes…
Thanks WxW for checking in! 🙂 ❄️
I am indeed. MJO is going to be more friendly to this end as well.
Thanks WxWatcher!
Are you now in Wrentham? If so, you missed the real cold. 🙂
This is a heat wave today.
Yes indeed. Plenty cold relative to what I’ve gotten used to haha. But half wished I’d gotten here a little earlier just to experience the peak of it!
I didn’t know you were from Wrenthem. I’ll try to keep that in mind. Thanks again. 🙂
Wrentham (sp.)
Thank you, WxW. Welcome home for a visit. Always great to see you here
Thanks TK and always great to have your insight WxW. Pattern can easily flip from cold and dry to warm and wet. We’ve seen it plenty.
I want it to flip from cold and dry to cold and VERY wet, like it does in the Deep South. 😉
The pattern in the South is definitely not “very wet”. 🙂
They just had a couple of snow events pretty far south this winter so far. They’re bound to go dry and rather mild heading into February.
How much of that mildness filters in up this way, if any. That is the big question.
Let me put it this way – no blowtorch – and what you see on guidance is likely overdone too.
Two things in this pattern…
1) Arctic waves are almost always modeled too far north.
2) Warm-ups are almost always modeled too aggressive.
This is a different regime than the last few winters.
10 years ago today, a 5-inch snowstorm occurred at Boston, beginning an onslaught that would deliver over 90 inches of snow over the next 30 days on the way to nearly 110 inches for the season…
Here’s the comment thread from that era! https://www.woodshill.net/?p=4068#comments
5 had someone on tonight taking about this saying it probably won’t happen again with global warming
That was a busy stretch for us folks doing snow removal . I think I went 5 Saturdays in a row not sleeping at home doing snow removal . I did a Sunday – Wednesday at the hospital working the storm without going home .
I read through all…briefly . Lots of names I would love to see again.
It was a difficult time for us but we were blessed to have the extra months with Mac.