Saturday January 25 2025 Forecast (7:43AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

Today will feature fair and cold weather as a weak area of high pressure dominates the region. A mid level disturbance and warm front will cross the region tonight, bringing some cloudiness, which will persist into Sunday morning especially to the south. This signals a warm up, in relative terms, for Sunday and Monday, when temperatures get back to seasonal for 2 days. Low pressure passing by to the north may help trigger a few snow flurries as its trough swings through on Sunday afternoon. With a tighter pressure gradient between Canadian low pressure and high pressure to the south, you’ll notice the wind becoming more of a factor again as we move through the “milder” days. Then a stronger low center moving through eastern Canada on Tuesday will really pack the gradient tightly and make Tuesday a windier day. In addition, a sharp cold front trailing this low will swing southward through the region and trigger snow showers or snow squalls. It’s too early to say if these will be scattered or in the form of a line, but if the latter is the case, a quite widespread burst of visibility-reducing snow could occur. Monitoring trend on this. Colder air arrives behind that front, regardless, and a clipper low pressure system comes racing along out of Canada on Wednesday to give the region a period of unsettled weather. The track of that clipper will determine the details. A track further north would result in a few snow/mix showers, while a track further south would bring a general light to borderline moderate snowfall. In-between scenarios are also possible, and the low’s track can be pinned down and fine-tuned in the days ahead, so don’t read too much into run-to-run details if you follow models. About 24 to 30 hours ahead with the help of high resolution short range guidance we can detail it much better.

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Limited sun morning, especially I-90 belt to South Coast, then more sun but passing clouds that can produce a brief snow flurry. Highs 32-39. Wind SW to W up to 15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower or squall. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to N by late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers except possibly rain/snow showers South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Fair, cold weather January 30-31. A window of opportunity exists for unsettled weather during the first few days of February – details TBD – with a slight temperature moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

A fair weather start, and another window of opportunity for storminess follows. Temperatures variable / no extremes indicated.

64 thoughts on “Saturday January 25 2025 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK
    my bet, clipper for Wed tracks North We shall see.

    I, for one am not overly optmistic for snow chances down the road
    Hope I am dead wrong.

    15 this morning here.

    Reply

    1. I understand that, but for me it’s not optimism vs. pessimism, but pattern analysis. I love snow, but if it snows, great, and if it doesn’t snow, great too. Weather’s weather and for me it’s all exciting to try to predict. 🙂

      At January 25 we have not even reached the half way point of winter 2024-2025 yet, and history shows that the majority of the region’s largest snow events happen during the SECOND half of winter over the long term.

      This morning I was reading some posts on social media about how Winter 2024-2025 “WAS” a dud for this area. Was?

      How about letting it HAPPEN before verifying it? I don’t get why people do that – over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over …

      and over……………

      and over…………………………..

      and OVER…………………………………………..

      I don’t get it. At all. 🙂

      Reply

      1. And I understand that. I am just sitting and waiting.
        We shall see what shakes out.

        I hope the clipper delivers big time! that would be a bonus.

        Reply

  8. Thanks TK.

    According to Jacob, 1,065 days since last 6”+ snowfall for Boston. ❄️

    It’s gotten so that we’ve been hard pressed to see 6” in an entire month, let alone an entire storm. Hard to believe many southern cities only have to count a few days since their last event.

    Don’t blame me…Jacob keeps posting these stats on air every weekend. ❄️ 🙂

    Reply

    1. IMO it’s actually not a very useful stat anyway. Logan doesn’t get all that many 6+ inch snowfalls in any given winter, on average. Maybe 1 or 2. And given the pattern the last few winters, I’m not surprised they’re at the # they’re at. 🙂

      Reply

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Up to 24 from a low of 4. I don’t mind cold. I do mind electric bills. I’ll be glad to see overnight temps into the double digits.

    Reply

    1. That’s a 10 page answer 🙂

      Relatively speaking, the earth at 1 to 1.5C warmer than a couple hundred years ago has to have at least some small effect, but in the overall sensible sense of weather, it’s still going to cold and snowy in winter.

      Reply

      1. Yes, we’ll still see cold & snowy winters but not nearly as many as in past generations.

        For today’s kids, they probably won’t be telling their grandkids about how they walked 2 miles to school in 2 foot drifts uphill back and forth to school. 😉

        Reply

        1. We just finished the snowiest 30 year period on record before the current “snow drought”, which is only about 1/3 as long as the snow drought of the late 1970s to early 1990s.

          The conclusion drawn about the future winters doesn’t really have any backing to it. In fact, some have argued, and showed reasonable scientific evidence, that parts of eastern North America turn snowier in the long term in a warmer climate.

          Reply

    2. If you want the short answer, climate change (formerly known as global warming) affects all seasons, not just winters, so by logic it would have an impact on our winters.

      More directly, is the the cause of recent “less snowy” winters? No. At least not by itself – and not by a longshot on its own. If that was the case, I could have used that as a reason for the snow drought years of the late 1970s to the early 1990s.

      As I always say, weather and climate are COMPLEX and have multiple aspects to their behavior, both short term and long term.

      Reply

      1. This clipper along its mid level warm front has some good lift.

        Where will that track, just north of it gets a decent burst of snow.

        Reply

  14. Totally unrelated to weather:

    Boston City Hall (1968) has now been declared an Historical Landmark.

    It is also the 4th UGLIEST building in the world.

    Also, Boston ranks #4 in traffic in the U.S. (or is it the world?).

    Reply

    1. 4th ugliest according to who?

      I always loathed these “prettiest” and “ugliest” lists. They are based on the opinion of 1 or the opinions of a relatively small group of people in comparison to the entirety of people who would have seen the subject enough to form an opinion on it.

      It’s kind of like, who’s the best singer? who’s the best guitarist? who’s the best dummer? There’s actually no single correct answer to ANY of those questions. 🙂

      Reply

    1. Slightly less harsh than the previous outbreak, but don’t count out a really potent shot (or 2, or 3) of arctic air as we move through February and into March too. We’re not changing things up enough to prevent it.

      Reply

  17. 12z guidance review with added meteorology.

    Leaning toward a solid line of snow showers/squalls Tuesday midday to mid afternoon.

    Leaning toward a southern track on the clipper and a widespread light to borderline moderate snowfall for most of SNE Wednesday.

    Reply

  18. Solid 3rd period for the Bruins in today’s matinee against the Avs.

    Started the 3rd down 1-0. Game ended with a 3-1 win. 🙂

    Reply

    2. It’s funny I was not watching much hockey before I canceled Xfinity cable & now that I don’t have it with YouTube tv I want to watch . I don’t know if I want to spend the $30 to add Nesn 360

      Reply

        1. Yes, you get all local channels. It’s the best tv streaming service IMO. There’s a good introductory deal now but the regular price is a little steep. No NESN though, you need to pay extra for it.

          Reply

          1. Thank yoin But games are on other “channels?” What do you use for cable/internet? Can you tell I’m very new to this?

            Reply

            2. I pay $70/mo for FiOS internet and YouTube tv is another $70/mo. The only other streaming apps we have are Netflix and Disney+. All in we’re at like $170/mo

              Reply

              1. Thsnks Ace. I have a few streaming. Netflix, Disney,paramount+ and peacock oh and hallmark+. I think that will bring me to what I’m already paying or more

                Reply

            1. Can’t stand channel 7 (WHDH), never have, so I don’t mind that it’s not on there. The NBC 10 version is much better.

              Reply

        2. I do . Most of them I think as that was my biggest concern. I’m not good at this stuff lol but I’m getting better . I think the only sports I get is espn . Netflix is supposed be an extra fee but I’m getting it now probably because I still have Xfinity for internet only & it was free when I had the cable . I got 21 day free trial & now I get 3 months for $60 before it goes to regular price of I think $86 per month . Internet only is $133.94 so I pay around $220 a month compared to $300 combined what I was paying with Xfinity. Thing is Xfinity was my only cable option & they just don’t work with you as I tried & tried to lower bill with no success.. so I’m saving some money but I though the internet would be cheaper & it was not . I think I’m happy with YouTube & I have been researching & folks seem to like it the best . I have it on 4 TVs & had to get a fire stick for each one .

          Reply

  19. TK – Now that you mention the “snow drought” of the late 1970s through early 1990s, I don’t recall the “meteorological community” as well as weather geeks (myself included) making a big deal of it at the time it was occurring. Frankly I wonder if YOU were the only one who noticed. I know I didn’t, other that I was frustrated at times when there was snow potential that didn’t pan out. I guess I just “moved on” until we snapped out of it during the 1992-93 winter. 🙂

    Is it because now we have social media?

    Reply

    1. 100% boosted by social media now vs. no social media then. This is true with a large percentage of things we see that are made out to be “big deals”, “never happened”, “unprecedented”. Granted, this does not apply to every single thing, but a whole lot of them. A little research will reveal that rather quickly. 🙂

      The key to social media is knowing how NOT to use it as much as knowing how to. Same with weather prediction tools aka guidance, etc. 🙂

      Reply

    2. I was aware of the drought but not because of my interest in weather. It was because I watched our local ski areas struggling.

      That said, if we look at climate globally….same thing as snow predictions of 3-6…..what we do see globally is year after year we have the hottest year on record. 2024 now tops the list as the latest but they are in this century. The earth is warming maybe not solely but in good part due to man’s pollution….of every single corner of our planet

      https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/85098/annual-global-temperature-records

      Reply

  20. 4 days away, starting to pay a bit more attention to modeled snow amounts from the global guidance. Will shift to the NAM and other shorter range / higher res guidance in about 2 days.

    18z GFS & 18z ECMWF both have a solid 3 to 6 inch snowfall north of I-90 and less to the south on Wednesday.

    Reply

      1. The city is in the I-90 belt since the road’s eastern limit is in the city.

        Also, that is not a “forecast” by me for 3-6 inches. It’s my saying that’s what both 18z runs of ECMWF & GFS had.

        My forecast #’s will be out on Monday’s update for the Wednesday event.

        Reply

      2. County borders don’t really make it easy all the time, but I mention them at times, when applicable.

        In other words, weather doesn’t always follow county lines.

        Mentioning areas / regions works better most of the time.

        Reply

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