Sunday January 26 2025 Forecast (8:37AM)

115 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

“A veritable heatwave!”, as a former local TV meteorologist used to say, was the phrase that came to mind at sunrise today when I’d looked at the observations and saw the temperature had gone up as much as 10 degrees in some parts of southern New England since midnight. This is in response to a relatively mild southwesterly air flow ahead of a trough. This trough may produce a couple snow flurries in the region today, otherwise its approach and passage will feature a gusty breeze but less cold than recent days have offered. This “less cold” feel will persist on Monday as well, but it will come with a price – even more wind, as the pressure gradient tightens up between a large eastward-moving Canadian low pressure area and an area of high pressure off to the south. But Monday’s weather will be dry. Tuesday, some changes happen quickly as a sharp cold front passes by. Timing on this feature seems to be sooner-rather-than-later on all available guidance, so I’m leaning toward morning-midday for the potential for passing snow showers and a possible heavier snow squall, a wind shift to northwest, some decent wind gusts, and a colder feel to the air during the day as a new air mass arrives from Canada. This one won’t have the bite of the recent one, but will still feature a return to below normal temperatures. This sets the state for a short-lived unsettled weather event Wednesday as a clipper low moves quickly across the Northeast via Canada and the Great Lakes. I’m still in the process of pinning down the exact track of the low pressure center, because that will determine who sees a period of accumulating snow (light to potentially borderline moderate amounts) and who sees just a few snow showers, maybe even mix/rain showers (south). These details will be available on tomorrow morning’s update, but check the comments section during the day today for some potential thoughts as I gather more data / guidance during the day. Whatever that system brings, it’s out of here by evening on Wednesday, and high pressure builds this way with fair, cold weather Thursday.

TODAY: An overcast start to the day South Coast / MA South Shore areas. Otherwise, sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing snow flurry midday on. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy morning-midday with snow showers likely and a possible heavier snow squall, then partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 28-35 by mid morning, then falling back into / through the 20s gradually. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 mph, gusts 25-45 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 10-20 MPH early, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers except possibly rain/snow showers South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Fair, cold weather January 31. Unsettled weather potential increases during the February 1-2 weekend – medium range guidance inconsistent on what takes place, but meteorologically I’m leaning toward a cold scenario with strung out low pressure to the south and cold high pressure to the north, bringing a chance of snow/mix. While some guidance has this lingering beyond, I lean toward a fair weather scenario for February 3-4 with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A mid-period unsettled / storm potential between episodes of dry weather. Temperatures variable – not far from normal overall.

115 thoughts on “Sunday January 26 2025 Forecast (8:37AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    I am still leaning towards the clipper passing North of the Boston area, howvever, the GFS has been conisitently calliing for a more Southerly track and 3-6 inches of snow.

    Euro North and Cmc in between.

    I take North, but hoping I am wrong.

    Reply

        1. It seems the ad has disappeared. As soon as the map appeared the ad almost immediately popped up and completely covered up the map. I was unable to “X” it out.

          Sorry, everything’s ok now. Thanks JPD! 🙂

          Reply

  16. I’m looking forward to the games. My choices are for the commanders and Bills. The commanders for our friend, Hadi, who has been a steadfast fan and for a team that worked hard to get where they are today. The bills is a bit tougher since my grandson is a swiftie, but I’ve always been a bills fan. All four teams are here because they earned the right so I wish all the best.

    Reply

    1. Also rooting for the same . I’m really wishing for Washington because this rookie QB is really good & I think Washington & Buffalo would be one heck of Super Bowl

      Reply

    1. There ya go . The best will be the look on Patrick’s face if they loose , I’m going to have my camera ready . But I tell ya , if I was betting games , I would not touch this one .

      Reply

      1. They may have to issue flood warnings in KN due to all of the tears flowing from his eyes!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        I can’t wait to see that happen!!!!!

        Reply

  18. That’s an interesting take by the GFS on the clipper.

    Slightest hint at redevelopment and then then upper reflection has little backlash or western extension of the system along eastern areas.

    Reply

  19. Oh BOY, IF ONLY!!!

    The GFS has a MONSTER for Feb 2 or so.

    Total Snow (less the 3-5 from the clipper)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025012612&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012612&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012612&fh=171&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Gimmie some of this. FAT CHANCE of that, but perhaps at least maybe our 1st 6+ inch storm in how many years?????

    Reply

  21. Ok, so TK and other blog Mets have been saying hit the breaks on the supposed upcoming milder pattern and there are now some hints on the models that they had excellent fore site.

    Reply

  23. You won’t hear me say this often, and I haven’t looked at the 12z ECMWF yet, but I think the GFS actually has the right “idea” sooner than the ECMWF about next weekend. I do think the ECMWF was starting to correct on the 06z and should look a lot more similar, in terms of storm track and set-up, than the GFS. The GFS may be rather overdone on precip and snowfall which is not unusual for this time range, and the ECMWF likely looks “drier” with the same low track (elongated, more west-to-east, colder scenario).

    The GFS will ease up on precip, and the ECMWF will correct upward. Granted, this is a week away, and my idea may be rubbish when it comes time to verify, but right now meteorology tells me this is the way to go.

    Reply

  24. Football…

    I would love to see the Commanders pull the upset, and I’m rooting for them to do it. My prediction, however, gives the Eagles the edge, My friend always collections predictions for fun, and I have Eagles winning, 26-14. Hope I’m wrong on that one.

    Other game: Bills 38 / Chiefs 31. Chiefs miss a FG in the game, and also suffer a sack on a drive that could have tied the game. Now let’s see how this goes………… 🙂

    Reply

  25. Boston: January-to-date.

    9 days with + temp departure.
    16 days with a – temp departure.

    Currently at -2.0 degrees F for the month.
    With temps not all that far from normal values for the last several days of the month, we should not see too much change in the current departure and we’ll see the second consecutive colder-than-normal month. I think February has a decent shot to make it 3 straight, based on my most recent musings of the medium to longer range trends.

    Reply

      1. And I think they will. 🙂
        I just wish I had been so bold to pay more attention to this potential when I was doing my seasonal forecast. It was right there on the monthly guidance.

        Reply

  26. Some of those snow flurries in today’s forecast are now wandering into Boston’s northwestern suburbs via NH and central MA.

    Reply

      1. I combine the WGM / EGM (wild guess model & educated guess model), and always take a look at the WIWTH (what I want to happen). 🙂

        Reply

  27. Could use an answer.

    Let’s say a TV met says average snowfall in January is X inches. I am not exactly sure what that means. I assume they are talking about measurable snow at Logan and I am not sure over what time period. Does this mean ever since records have been kept?

    Though I am semi-versed in statistics, I generally do not like the word “average” in meteorology. I reported to a CEO who used to say “if you put your head in a furnace and your feet in a bucket of ice water, on average, you’re warm.” The problem is that the word average doesn’t go a long way in explaining your situation.

    Reply

    1. Now that is some description of average. Kind of extreme, but
      it makes your point. I am not going to spew out my thoughts on it. 🙂

      Reply

    2. I’d agree with you re average. It’s my understanding that the average now includes ONLY the last 30 years. NWS from what I find began keeping records in 1872. I’d like help too on understanding how 123 years of records are erased and the 30 (most of those the hottest years on record) can give an accurate “average.”

      Reply

      1. I knew it was over 100 years, but didn’t know or forgot it’s now the last 30 years. Per your point, could use more explanation.

        Reply

        1. I keep asking. I had one friend who tried to help me understand. It had to do with resetting every 10 years. But I’m still not getting it. And that could just be me.

          Reply

  31. Thanks TK! Just recovered from a bad bout of Covid only to learn my father in law passed away kn Minnesota. We are making the drive there starting Weds am and returning Sunday/Monday – hoping to have two relatively calm windows to drive through. Other than the Clipper Weds I should be good – will be tailing behind Storm on 2/2-2/3

    Reply

    1. We’re setting up for an aggressive fire season from “snow-out” to “leaf-out”, unless we get some decent and regular rainfall starting about the equinox through most of May.

      Reply

  36. Jimmy B, your message is up there quite a way so I’m replying here. I am very sorry for your loss. I hope you are feeling better and I think your drive, other than some snow / snow showers around at the start, should be relatively free of weather drama.

    Reply

  38. Didn’t work out for Washington in this game ..
    They were a little undisciplined at times, but in the end that was not the only issue. They just were outplayed.

    HOWEVER, that team should be proud of their season!!

    Now, onto the 2nd game…
    Go Bills!

    If the Bills win, I will root for them in the SB.
    If the Bills don’t win, I’ll root for the Eagles in the SB.

    Reply

      1. And that in no way diminishes the right of anyone to root for whatever team they choose. It’s entirely possible I set the bar too high and that’s on me.

        Reply

  39. Sorry for the commanders, they just could not stop the two headed beast qb-RB of the Eagles in this game. Despite this, the commanders have a bright future.
    Now on to hopefully see the BIlls go up against the Eagles.

    Reply

  44. It being the chiefs vs eagles again makes me not want to watch the SB. It was obvious the chiefs were given handouts by the refs throughout the year. Eagles actually do deserve to be in the SB again chiefs not so much. I hope the eagles win but I doubt it just because of how much Roger Godell loves the chiefs. I wish the Bills defenders knocked KC receivers around like they did against the Ravens but due to refs favoritism you could see that they were not playing full speed.

    Reply

    1. The refs were regularly accused of favoring the Pats also. I am not sure in my lifetime I know of a great who isn’t faulted by fans. Refs make mistakes. In every sport.

      Do they favor KC? Damned if I know. But KC and the Bills played a fair game. The Eagles not so much.

      Reply

  45. Great game !! Not the outcome I wanted , but I really like the Buffalo program & they will get there at some point.

    Reply

    1. You can’t hate Josh Allen and the HC/Owners. I don’t like KC for many reasons, I dislike them so much for many different reasons.

      Reply

        1. It was a good game, but I can not look at this year and say the refs and nfl didn’t want the chiefs in the SB.
          I really do not like Kelce, he is a deva, he taunts players all the time, he goes in and “defends” his teammates and never gets flagged.
          Mahomes always complains about the refs and even complained about it to Josh Allen when the Bills do win. You do not see the Bill and their players doing that.
          Allen and his coach/owners does alot for their community and does not discriminate who gets the help/outreach. Mahomes and the chiefs players do. Chiefs act and are rich while the bills are more down to earth. Now do I have my issued with the eagles yes but so does every other fan base. Chief fans have been insufferable. In terms of the Patriots getting flags, yeah there were times in which they got favorable flags but Brady always was getting hit or touched, anytime a defender breaths on Mahomes its a penalty. The amount of hospital balls Mahomes throws is insane and he seems to not really care. Meanwhile when Josh Allen or Lamar put their WRs at risk they are always over there saying their bad, sorry or shows concern if the WR are injured. Meanwhile Mahomes is onto the next play. Its about their characters.

          Reply

          1. Thanks, Matt. I don’t know Mahomes well enough to judge his character. I’m
            Not sure I know of a great whose character was not questioned on a regular basis. I think it’s hard to not admit Mahomes is a very talented QB. What I saw was talent that took him and his team to the win. That goes for the Bills too. Neither team resorted to unfair play.

            I don’t have the memory of Brady running the ball as often as Mahomes. That might explain more interference calls for Mahomes. I did watch what fans believed to be an unfair call last week and felt the call looked fair.

            All of that said, I remember comments very similar to yours about Brady and the Pats from a large majority outside of patriots nation. It seems common to feel greats, in particular, are getting outside help. The refs were accused of helping Brady too. There have been times I’ve wondered if games are sometimes rigged.

            So who knows. The only team of the four that I had trouble respecting for its play yesterday was the Eagles. I’m not excited about the SB but will probably watch.

            Reply

  46. On the 4th down play for the Bills, that receiver Kincaid SHOULD have caught the ball. It went right through his hands. I can imagine what the postgame radio talk shows are like in Buffalo.

    Oh well.

    I will be rooting for the Eagles.

    Reply

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