Tuesday January 28 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)

80 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

A cold front moves through the region this morning to midday with a broken line of snow showers and possible heavier snow squalls, which can briefly reduce visibility and drop a quick, ground-slickening coating of snow. This moves on and the rest of the day is dry, windy, and cold with some sunshine returning. Clouds quickly come back this evening and thicken up tonight ahead of a clipper low. This low center, slightly elongated, will pass just north of the WHW forecast area, but a burst of snow with its warm front will cause a small accumulation overnight. It’s cold front will trigger rain and snow showers Wednesday afternoon, leading in a shot of arctic air for Thursday, with dry weather and a biting wind. But this pattern is one where nothing hangs around, and the storm that I’d been watching for the weekend is going to waste no time heading our way, bringing unsettled weather for the final day of January on Friday. Significant enough warm advection with this system means that it should be a mainly rain event for our region, though may start as snow for at least a portion of the area. But it moves along too, and fair, windy, colder weather will greet us for the first day of February on Saturday, behind it.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a passing snow shower or snow squall in the morning. Plenty of sun midday on. Highs 31-38 by midday, then falling into 20s. Wind SW shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow of a coating to 2 inches from I-90 northward overnight with more scattered snow and some dustings / coatings to the south. Lows 13-20 except 20-27 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty early, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with snow ending early, then a sun/cloud mix with additional rain showers (south) and snow showers (north) in the afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 12-19 evening, rising through 20s overnight. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix changing to rain. Highs 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain ending evening followed by clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Clipper low brings snow or snow shower chance February 2 into February 3, and turning windy again with more cold air. Next storm threat is later in the period with snow/mix potential.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Active pattern with a couple unsettled weather opportunities. Temperatures variable – not far from normal.

80 thoughts on “Tuesday January 28 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    First morning in a long time the windshield was free of ice/frost and could just get in and go. That was a nice change.

    Reply

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    clipper passing to The Notth. What a shock. next system rain. wow, what a surprise.

    as low as my snow estimate was, I am beginning to think it was too high. Still time, so we shall see.
    What con erns me is that a pattern that was ripe for snow only delivered one paltry moderate snow event . What else will happen?

    Frankly, I am not expecting much. Anything would be a bonus. Am I pessimistic, yup, you bet I am.

    Watch us get clocked in April!

    Reply

    1. I’ve been peeking a little more at the CFS and the general long range theme seems to be cold opportunities well into February and storm opportunities too.

      So, we’ll have to see if we end up with a scenario where they match up.

      Reply

  3. I don’t know about anyone else, but I know where I was 39 years ago today and the shock/sadness of the event. 40 year anniversary next year, that is insane.

    Reply

    2. At the office working.
      My wife was very concerned the night before that something
      might happen due to the cold! Little did she know it was the O rings.

      Reply

    3. Mac and I had been at Newton Wellesley for a pregnancy wellness checkup. He was in the kitchen I was standing in front of the TV. I tried to convince myself what I saw was supposed to happen but called Mac into the room. As with the whole world, we watched with shock, heartbreak and tears.

      Tom, I had to do the math to figure the year. Hard to believe it has been 39 years.

      Reply

    4. I was in the office of a small company in Santa Barbara where I was working part-time writing software as a graduate student in math. That company had worked closely with the Challenger crew designing the interior of the craft. Human factors engineering was one of their specialties.

      As a result of the bond with the crew, it was a very personal tragedy for many of the workers there.

      Reply

  14. Thanks, TK!

    We’re not halfway through winter, but we’re halfway through the school year today! School day 90! How about you, Tom?

    Reply

  15. Special Weather Statement
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    9:51 AM EST Tue, Jan 28, 2025

    …A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW…

    At 948 AM EST, a band of heavier snow, also known as a snow squall, was located along a line extending from near Ellington to Blackstone. Movement was east at 60 mph.

    Locations impacted include… Pawtucket, Woonsocket, Cumberland, North Providence, Johnston, North Attleborough, Mansfield, Windham, Plainfield, Attleboro, Smithfield, Lincoln, Central Falls, Norton, Killingly, Webster, Southbridge, Bellingham, Burrillville, and Northbridge.

    Expect brief reductions in visibility within the snow band to as low as a half mile. Light accumulations on roadways may cause localized slick travel.

    Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling.

    Reply

  20. Some beautiful, low-top, convective like, cumulus clouds in the sky. We have had a wave of flurries in the last few minutes, along with gusty winds.

    Reply

  25. Euro looks ever so slightly further south on 12z for next weekend.

    Lots of cold, heavy, dense air eastern Canada reloading next weekend.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if that weekend system ends up south of us and its just a col, dry weekend.

    Reply

    1. That solution is definitely on the table as a potential.

      It’s funny reading around social media about how we (meteorologists) can’t be sure about how something is going to unfold “a few days away”. It’s still predicting the future, and it’s still a sure sign that those folks have NO clue what we have to do to figure it out. 🙂

      Reply

      1. All the people who say that on social media wouldn’t come close to how amazingly accurate you and other Mets forecasts are.

        Reply

  26. Wind was blowing like crazy in metro west a while back but seems to be slowing down a bit now. Looking at tomorrow, will that be as windy? Hopefully a little less as I already have a bunch of branches to pick up. Thanks.

    Reply

    1. The wind forecasts are included in the detailed forecast of my discussion above. Tomorrow will not be as windy, but still quite gusty in the afternoon as the cold front portion of the clipper crosses the region.

      Reply

      1. Thanks. I saw your numbers but it also seemed ch.4 had 20-30 with higher gusts. I know that I should ask them but figured I would get your thoughts first. Thanks.

        Reply

  27. Minor adjustment for the short term forecast…

    “Coating to 2 inches” gets changed to “1 to 3 inches” and gets pushed a bit further south, especially in eastern MA, to include the South Shore as well. Most of it should fall between 2:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.

    The low center does pass to the north, so we’ll briefly get into the “warm sector” – that doesn’t mean it’ll be warm, just warmer than the morning lows (teens vs. 30s). The cold front looks vigorous with a few potent showers of rain and snow (depending on location). I can’t even rule out isolated lightning / thunder. That would be mid to late afternoon from northwest to southeast.

    Things are moving SO quickly that the wind takes place mostly Wednesday night and despite the delivery of arctic air for Thursday, the wind doesn’t hold up all day, but slackens off.

    Friday system still looks like it occurs right as we have a break between 2 cold air masses, so I do expect some mix/rain, but there is guidance that says the thing will be even further south / colder, so don’t completely rule out snow at the start and/or end of the Friday system for parts of the region.

    Sunday’s system reminds me a little bit of the one we’re going to have tonight / tomorrow, but several days to detail that!

    Very interesting / active pattern follows. If you look at guidance in the medium range, keep in mind all guidance will likely display a warm bias, and instead we shall favor overall colder outcomes than we see depicted there.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say these 2 things again.

    1) This is NOT the same pattern as the last few winters. This is meteorology talking, and you can trust me on this.

    2) The halfway point of winter takes place on February 3. We don’t declare winter “over” here until it’s actually over, and that isn’t late January, or early February, or mid February, or late February, or even the first 2/3 of March. Winter lasts until about March 20. Wintry weather can occur into April. Nothing has changed about this, and I am going to try to avoid having to write it about 25 times per week this season. 🙂 So just make note of this post here at 3:46 p.m. on January 28, and refer to it as often as needed. 😉

    Reply

  28. We are now accelerating our rate of daylight gain, which will peak in March. You’ll notice now that it’s still twilight through most of the 5:00 p.m. hour.

    As I always say I love the dark days, I also love the bright days. For me, I really just love the cycle / seasons. The balance and predictability of it all is fascinating.

    And now I have to take a break from screen time for a few – visual aura migraine which makes me mostly blind for about 20 minutes. This is a left-brain, right-moving aura, which tend to lead to pain for me, whereas the right-brain, left-moving aura migraines don’t usually cause much if any pain. Funny how that works and docs can’t really answer why that’s the case.

    I just take my “poor man’s Excedrin Migraine” – caffeine + Tylenol, and deal. 🙂

    Reply

    1. Feel better. Would that also be known as a
      retinal migraine? My wife suffers from those and is effectively blind for 20-30 minutes until it passes.

      Reply

      1. This particular one is an occular migraine. I know because the visual aura is in both eyes, whether the eyes are open or closed. The disturbance for these is in the brain (one side or the other, determined by the direction the aura travels).

        I do suffer retinal migraines as well, 2 to 4 per year on average. Those can be distinguished from occular migraines as they cause vision issues in only ONE eye, as the disturbance occurs at the back of the retina.

        Reply

      1. Thanks! This was a left-brain migraine, right-moving aura, which tend to cause me some pain, but so far not too bad.

        Reply

    3. Feel better . Between my Mom & wife I’m getting headaches daily . Migraines are tuff & I’ve never experienced those luckily

      Reply

      1. Take care of yourself! (Yup, I know that’s easy to let slide when you’re taking care of others – this is my life now.)

        Reply

  30. Thank you, TK.

    I am sorry to hear about your migraines. They can be debilitating. Do take care.

    The mostly stable weather here stands in stark contrast to what Northwestern Europe is experiencing. Interestingly, a shift in the jet stream has moved the parade of Atlantic storms south of its normal positioning. Northwestern France is now experiencing a one-two punch of Storm Herminia and Ivo. Both traversed parts of Ireland and Southern Wales and England on their way to Northwestern France where severe flooding is occurring. The current pattern is NOT conducive to cold in that part of the world. It is, however, conducive to a steady diet of areas of low pressure coming in from the ocean with rain and wind, interspersed with periods of gray nothingness. Sunshine hours this month – and last month and the one before – can almost be counted on one’s fingers. I am not kidding. It is that limited. I did not mind. In some ways it added to the charm of being there. But I do admit that Boston looks absolutely spectacular on these cloudless (or near cloudless) winter days. No haze, crystal clear conditions. From across the river on the Cambridge side looking at Boston it looks like it is in super focus (very different in summer when it looks out of focus due to the haze).

    I am getting ads online imploring me to “leave the gray, head to Florida.” I must say that is NOT consistent with the actual weather in Boston. And I do not equate January in Boston with gray. March and April, different story. That’s when Boston gets gray and raw for periods of time. Even in May. But my image of winter in Boston is generally one of ample sun, with some snowy or rainy days but clear demarcation between when it’s overcast and precipitating and when it’s sunny.

    Reply

  33. We were up at Bretton Woods NH this past weekend and did some cross country and downhill skiing. Weather was great with temps in the teens and for the most part, the Presidentials were in the clear which made for some pretty views. Snow conditions were very good but they could use more base. I’d say the snow cover was less than a foot deep but should be improving quite a bit after this week (and the coming weeks). A few shots:

    Cross country skiing behind the Mt Washington Hotel (Mt Eisenhower in front of us):
    https://imgur.com/wrPAO3V

    The Presidentials from the trail near the end of the day:
    https://imgur.com/3jxBP4l

    Mount Washington from the hotel just before sunset:
    https://imgur.com/5JMcqau

    Reply

    1. Eisenhower is actually the one on the right in the first picture. Washington is right behind the tree with the summit just barely in the clouds…

      Reply

  34. Very unsettled next week on the 18z GFS with continuous snow/mix/rain chances. Hopefully we end up on the colder side of that boundary more frequent than not….

    Reply

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