Guess the date that my brother’s snow pile in north Woburn vanishes!
As of February 17, the pile is approximately 10 feet high, 30 feet long, and 18 feet wide. Guesses must be submitted by February 28! The contest ends when the pile is 100% melted, regardless of whether or not any other snow falls beyond that time. Good luck!
Hadi’s snow total should be rounded off to 56.8″. Interesting though that rainfall totals do go to two decimal spaces but snowfall is always one, at least that is what I have always seen in precip recordings.
Dec-above average temps
Dec precip- below average rain, 1 or 2 small snow events (under 3 inches for the month)
January-average to above average Temps
January precip- below average snow
February-average temps
February-slightly above average snow
March-above average temps
March-early snow but early spring
Total snow 29.3
Take it for what it’s worth
Snow total at Logan-56.78
We will have two storms that are 15+ inches at Logan. We will also have 2 nights below 0 at Logan.
ere goes for Winter 2014-2015, snow predication only:
I am basing my prediction on the Near record October snowpack in Siberia and Northern Hemisphere snowpack in general. I also believe that there will be either NO El Nino OR a very weak one at best. I also believe that there will be an active pattern with many Coastal storms and/or Miller B type storms this Winter, some very strong due to anomalous SSTs off the East Coast.
Add it all up it it spells Monster Snows this Winter:
I didn’t see your prediction. Thank you for letting me know. I will add 36.5 to yours. Did you give an indepth view or just the amount. I can’t find where you posted? Thanks, Tom.
Tom says:
October 28, 2014 at 8:27 PM
Winter Outlook
Since July 1, PNA Teleconnection has been positive perhaps 75 to 80 percent of the time. Thus, the big ridges, high western US heat and western US drought.
Since July 1, Arctic Oscillation has been negative perhaps 75 to 80 percent of the time. Thus, a few of the bigger summer and autumnal trofs we have seen with cooler shots here and there.
Since July 1, the NAO has averaged overall neutral, though I notice that a few positive and negative episodes lately have been reaching 1 standard deviation from normal.
So ….. In my opinion, the ultimate guessing game is ….. Do they continue the same or change ?
Of the 3, I’m guessing the NAO mostly stays the same. No big blocking this winter. I’m guessing the arctic oscillation isnt wont be negative as often this winter as its been, so more of the arctic airmasses will remain locked up in Canada. I also the strongly positive PNA will relax a bit, so things may get stormier in the Pacific Northwest and hopefully into California.
Add it all up and …..
Above normal temps on average by 1.5F, December – March
Slightly less than average snowfall, 36.5 inches at Logan. I think a couple of those Pacific systems, when the PNA isnt positive will cross the country and somehow will evolve into 2 or 3 decent snowfalls.
Had to deliver this now, as trimester 1, along with grades due ….. occur around mid November.
Month avg high/avg lo – s=avg snow – p/i=avg precip per inch
Jan 36/22 – s 13 – p/i 3.35
Feb 39/25 – s 11 – p/i 3.27
March 45/31 – s 8 – p/i 4.33
April 56/41 – s 2 – p/i 3.74
May 66/50 – s 0 – p/i 3.5
June 76/60 – p/i 3.66
July 81/65 – p/i 3.43
Aug 80/65 – p/i 3.35
Sep 72/57 – p/i 3.43
Oct 61/47 – p/i 3.94
Nov 51/38 – s 1 – p/i 3.98
Dec 41/28 – s 9 – p/i 3.78
Below is more for overall area (my area, etc.) rather than Boston specific since I do not think that is a good indication
December and January: warmer than average with about average snow
February: Slightly below average temps and above average snow with one major snow of 12+
March: Slightly below average temps and above average snow with a couple of moderate to large snows of 9-12
April: Average to slightly above average temps with one minor snow
Boston Total snow: 47.
I hope there is more snow than I am predicting but I am going with 37.2 inches.
No blockbuster storms this winter. 2-4 widespread 6 plus inches of snow. Temps slightly above normal.
John says:
November 15, 2014 at 4:02 PM
Not sure if it gets posted here but I guess I’ll just go for it. This is all just a guess.
WINTER FORCAST
I’m going to go with the snow in Syberia and a weak elnino setting up to give us some decent snow . Two snow events in December one in the beginning let’s say 4 inches and one right before Xmas say the weekend before with a big one of at least 10 inches for Boston . Quiet first half of January with a very big storm the mlk weekend with a 20 inch storm more for south shore . Maybe one or two six inch storms as well. February 14 major storm of 25 inches for boston and again a couple of smaller ones for this month. March no snow at all, watchers but misses. So the bulk comes in with two big storms, a medium one and few smaller ones to give Boston let’s day 67.5 inches.
Adding TKs here. I know you did a masterful job as part of the new blog and am sure you will remember where it is but this old mind will not …even as soon as tomorrow….did I say my confidence in my prediction is increased 😉
TK said
December: Tendency for AO/NAO to be alternating between weakly negative and weakly positive, a bit of a see-saw pattern, stronger Polar jet stream, weaker Subtropical jet stream, and a lack of phasing. Temperature near to above normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal.
January: Strong split flow, dominant Polar jet stream with moderate to strongly negative AO/NAO, but a little weaker than average Subtropical jet stream due to the lack of emergence of El Nino. Temperature below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal. This will be the month of the cold outbreaks.
February: AO/NAO starts out with a negative bias then trends more positive. Still a split flow pattern but Subtropical jet becomes more active and Polar jet weakens a little. Phasing of streams, which had been not happening too often, happens a few times and brings an increased risk of storminess, but at the same time less intrusion of Arctic air from Canada. Temperature above normal. Precipitation near to above normal. Snowfall above normal. This will be the month with the greatest risk of major snowfall, despite it being considerably “milder” than January.
March: The pattern of February may spill over into early March but then retrogression sends Winter out West as the East warms and dries ahead of seasonal normal. That means Winter departs quickly in New England. Temperature above normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal.
Numbers I have recorded – did I miss anyone? Anyone else want to add their prediction(s)?
Old Salty 94.6
Tjammer 67.6
John 67.5
Shotime 62.2
Hadi 56.8
North 56.7
Haterain 54.0
Philip 46.8
Vicki 43.7
TK 41.1
WxWatcher 40.4
Retrac 37.9
JimmyJames 37.2
Tom 36.5
Matt 36.4
Scott77 31.2
Charlie 29.3
Ace 22.2
Joshua 19.2
Cat966G says:
November 17, 2014 at 12:51 PM
If I can still participate in the snowfall forecast. I will say 70″
Reply
avatarKeith-Hingham says:
November 17, 2014 at 12:53 PM
I guess I’ll make my predictio…..27 inches
Reply
Old Salty says:
Logan +1 (Logan just sticks too far out into the Water)
Worcester -8 (elevation adds to cold)
Hartford -4
Providence 0 (Providence too far South and farther away from core of COLD)
For anyone making a snowfall prediction for Hartford the official measurements are not taken in the city of Hartford. They are taken at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks which is north of Hartford. Average snowfall 40.5 inches.
Contest for 1st 1 inch of snow at Logan? I say 12/14/15
My snow totals for the year:
Boston 26.9
Providence 23.3
Worcester 51.4
Hartford 37.6
Concord 57.5
🙂
I hope I am wrong with these snowfall predictions and there MUCH higher.
Boston 25.1
Providence 27.3
Hartford 29.6
Worcester 36.3
I am thinking a good chunk of these totals will come from a good size storm that will happen in February.
First inch of snowfall 12/21/15
I always get sucked in by the doom and gloom low forecasts, so I am NOT going there.
I’ll probably go down in flames, but I had fun trying. I brought my totals down
from what I was originally thinking.
These are numbers I have so far. I jotted them down first and then added to spreadhseet. Like rainshine, I cannot read my own writing so please let me know if I have any incorrect numbers. Thank you
Charlie 3/29 5/2 5/30
ChaseCarry 4/2 4/25 5/25
Christie 4/3 5/21 6/14
GettingBetterAlways 4/14 5/30 6/20
JimmyJames 3/1 4/15 5/22
Joshua 3/21 4/13 6/5
Keith 3/21 4/22 4/23
Mark 3/28 4/19 4/30
Matt S 3/28 4/15 5/20
Philip 3/23 4/17 5/30
Rainshine 3/28 4/15 6/3
Shotime 3/31 5/27 6/5
Stephen Clarke 3/22 4/22 6/22
SteveT 3/12 4/6 5/16
Tom 3/14 4/21 4/21
Vicki 3/13 4/11 6/18
WeatherWiz 4/26 5/25 6/7
Emily says:
February 29, 2016 at 5:15 PM
Boston’s first 70 degree day: April 2.
Boston’s first 80 degree day: April 30.
Boston’s first 90 degree day: June 15.
Reply
Scott77 says:
February 29, 2016 at 5:41 PM
Boston’s first 70-3/15
Boston’s first 80-4/21
Boston’s first 90-5/29
Reply
Name Boston
Cat966g 8
Vicki 21
Keith 22.8
Scott77 24.1
JimmyJames 25.1
Philip 26.8
Weatherman 26.9
WxWatcher 29.9
Rainshine 30
Tom 30
Joshua 31.7
Matt 36.2
Sue 36.5
Mel 37.4
SS Kid 45.5
Weatherbee2 53.5
Hadi 57.3
Arod 61.3
tjammer 67.8
JPDave 71
MassBay says:
November 18, 2017 at 5:25 PM
Boston MA 50.8
Worcester MA 102.3
Providence RI 22
Hartford CT 43.1
Concord NH 77.7
Burlington VT 111.1
Portland ME 88.8
JimmyJames says:
November 19, 2017 at 2:14 PM
Here we go with my predictions.
Boston 32.7
Worcester 51.3
Providence 28.4
Hartford 38.8
Concord 65.3
Burlington 72.1
Portland 78.6
What is my winter prediction for those who did not see it and want to. https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/wp-admin/
My guesses for the contest
Boston 38.8
Worcester 55.7
Providence RI 23.5
Hartford(Bradly) CT 30.2
concord NH 65.8
Burlington VT 87.7
Portland ME 62.1
Annual Snow predictions for Winter season 2018-2019
First of all, the basis. My basis is mostly a guess, with some gut and experience thrown in. I would not wager any money on this, but my feeling on this Winter is that
We will have a preponderance of Cutters and Inside runners, mostly with coastal or near coastal redevelopments keeping mostly snow up North, but not so much in SNE, most especially near the coast. This will put a rather steep snow gradient coast to inland in place and when there is a good set up, the storm will be suppressed
to the South.
Boston/Logan – 48.2″
Boston/JP – 62.4″ (or another 58″ or so on the season)
Rationale:
1. All of Canada to our north is COLD with plenty of deep snow cover that isn’t going anywhere soon. Northern New England also has deep early season cover. Availability of cold air will not be a problem. While I do not agree with Dave that the current pattern of cutters will continue to be the predominant theme this winter, should we get a few, the prevalence of cold air and blocking to our north would provide a favorable scenario for cold air damming and up front “thump” of snow even with those systems (similar to what we saw a few weeks ago).
2. Active subtropical jet in weak El Nino pattern. Favors storm development over the Gulf coast and SE US coast. While we may be in a spilt flow pattern a lot this winter resulting in some of these storms be shunted out to sea harmlessly, I think the block to our north relaxes at times to allow some of these storms to ride up the coast. It only takes a few of these to quickly get up to average or above avg. snowfall on the winter.
3. High snow ratios as Tom alluded to. Very cold air in place towards late Jan-Feb will lead to a dry powdery snow from storms passing to our southeast. We could conceivably get a couple storms in, say February, that drop only 1 inch of melted precip, and get 15-20″ of snow out of them, while still ending up with near to below normal precip on the month.
4. Active polar jet will yield a number of clipper systems even in the scenario where we have a split flow setup and the southern storms go out to sea. Even a few tenths of precip from these more moisture starved systems could end up resulting in a moderate snowfall with ratios. A few of these can add up over the course of the winter as well.
Thus, call me biased, but I am still on board for above average snowfall on the winter!
Might’ve gone higher but I’m starting to think December goes down with below or well below average snow, so that takes a bite out since the upcoming pattern is one you need to get decent snow out of if you want to hit the high numbers, and we likely won’t. But beyond then, it should be a progressive enough winter pattern to introduce occasional snow windows, as usual. A couple of them are bound to hit.
General Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport: 40.0 inches
JP #%@^&@! Dave’s Place: 50.0 inches
Mark “The Islanders Fan” Observation Station: 60.0 inches
Here it goes for the winter of 2019-2020.
Logan 39.8 inches
JpDave 47.3 inches
Mark 50.2 inches
I got this exactly right last year for BDL when I predicted 40.1 inches for the season.
This year BDL 41.9 inches of snow
OK, here are my “final” guesses. I nudged them up a bit from my original guess from last week….
Logan 47.3″
JP Dave 57.9″
Mark/Coventry 70.1″
RATIONALE (re-posting from last week):
I have looked at several of the indices again and also read a number of winter forecasts posted thus far from reputable mets for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Here are my takeaways and thoughts.
1. Neutral ENSO – No defined El Nino or La Nina. Less active but NOT non-existent subtropical jet.
2. Siberian and Canadian snow cover – widespread. Should be ample cold air supply. Also points to a higher likelihood of a -AO which supports cold in the northern US
3. SST warming event upcoming could displace the PV and provide the mechanism to send colder air down here come mid January and beyond.
4. Warm waters in the North Pacific to promote +PNA and ridging in the west and trough/colder air in the eastern 2/3 of the US.
5. Warmer than normal waters still in the N Atlantic. This could result in some Greenland blocking (-NAO) which further supports wedging of cold air into the NE and sometimes east coast storminess. -NAO is something we haven’t seen much of in the past few years.
6. Solar minimum – we are at the lowest in a very long time. This can further support more cooling.
7. MJO – always a wildcard but +IOD and suppressed convection in the eastern Indian Ocean could support the colder phases of the MJO at least the first part of the winter.
Put all this together and here’s what I think:
1. December and first half of January – rollercoaster jetstream, cold shots mixed with milder spells, a few snow events and several mix/rain events with storm track varying (some west, some east of us), near to below normal snow
2. Later January into Feb and March – more sustained cold spells and stormier, above normal snow, more storms tracking S/E of us.
3. With less active subtropical jet, I’d expect more clippers and moisture starved northern stream systems, but any of them tracking over the Ohio Valley would have the potential to redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic and track NE, giving us some decent coastal snowstorms (your 4-8′ and 6-12″ type storms).
4. Introduce some blocking and I could see one of these systems with more explosive development and slower movement, resulting in the chance for a bigger storm (12-18″+?)
Overall, I am thinking above normal snow (but not MUCH above normal) for SNE….
45-55″ Boston and Hartford
65-75″ Worcester and Coventry
As today is the deadline for snow amounts I want to revise my guesses for the season;
Logan 45.2
JP: 50.1
Not changing because of any upcoming storm but mainly because the last time I guessed higher we got low snow totals for the season and I want that to happen again because I hate snow even though I love tracking it. LMAO!
To clarify: I guessed way lower before up above because I wasn’t looking forward to any snow. Then I realized today “wait a minute. If I guess low then we will get high numbers! I have to guess higher so we get lower numbers!” Haha
Sorry for the lateness on my predictions, I been bogged down with Finals. 2 down 1 left, party Thursday night and again Friday and then Going home for the break Saturday
Boston MA: 41
Worcester MA: 65
Providence RI: 32
Hartford CT: 45
Concord NH: 75
normal to slightly below normal south/east
Average to above average north/west
Guess the date that my brother’s snow pile in north Woburn vanishes!
As of February 17, the pile is approximately 10 feet high, 30 feet long, and 18 feet wide. Guesses must be submitted by February 28! The contest ends when the pile is 100% melted, regardless of whether or not any other snow falls beyond that time. Good luck!
May 3rd
April 26, 2014
April 20th, Easter Sunday
Instead of everyone posting here individually, would it be easier if I get dates from regular blog and then post a list on one entry???
Plan is to continue to post your numbers on this page and I will keep track and post a consolidated list on March 1 when numbers are all in. Thanks 🙂
April 10 is when I guess snow pile will be gone.
4/4
May 1st
I say April 21st patriots day!
April 15th…
Numbers I have to date – please let me know if I recorded yours incorrectly or if I missed you. Thanks
DS 3/25/14
Captain 4/1/14
Deb 4/2/14
OS 4/4/14
JimmyJames 4/4/14
Philip 4/7/14
Charlie 4/9/14
Haterain 4/10/14
Keith 4/15/14
Joshua 4/16/14
hadi 4/19/14
Mark 4/19/14
AceMaster 4/20/14
Scott77 4/21/14
Bearlb67 4/21/14
Shotime 4/22/14
WeatherWiz 4/26/14
Coastal 5/3/14
GoForSnow 5/5/14
March 30th.
got it
I’m going with 4/29/14
I am going with 4/13. Thanks Vicki!
You are welcome. I’m loving this contest page.
Matt says April 5
April 6
April 26th.
May 10th of this year!
Arod 11/2 said
Boston sees 56.75 inches this year
Hi Vicki.
Any chance of posting last years guesses and final result?
Thanks!
TJ
Just saw this and will tomorrow. Please do not hesitate to poke me if I don’t reply. It means I didn’t see the comment 🙂
Dec-above average temps until after Xmas
Dec precip- below average rain and snow
January-average Temps
January precip- above average snow
February-Below average temps
February-above average precip as well snow.
March-above average temps
March precip average but early snow.
Snow total at Logan-56.78
We will have two storms that are 15+ inches at Logan. We will also have 2 nights below 0 at Logan.
Above is Hadis
Hadi’s snow total should be rounded off to 56.8″. Interesting though that rainfall totals do go to two decimal spaces but snowfall is always one, at least that is what I have always seen in precip recordings.
Charlie
Dec-above average temps
Dec precip- below average rain, 1 or 2 small snow events (under 3 inches for the month)
January-average to above average Temps
January precip- below average snow
February-average temps
February-slightly above average snow
March-above average temps
March-early snow but early spring
Total snow 29.3
Take it for what it’s worth
Snow total at Logan-56.78
We will have two storms that are 15+ inches at Logan. We will also have 2 nights below 0 at Logan.
Snow totals will be up this year! 67.6″
TJ
Brett Anderson tweet
@BrettAWX: Looked at the latest ECMWF seasonal model and I believe that the model is showing it’s warm bias once again for the DJF period.
OS winter 2014-2015
ere goes for Winter 2014-2015, snow predication only:
I am basing my prediction on the Near record October snowpack in Siberia and Northern Hemisphere snowpack in general. I also believe that there will be either NO El Nino OR a very weak one at best. I also believe that there will be an active pattern with many Coastal storms and/or Miller B type storms this Winter, some very strong due to anomalous SSTs off the East Coast.
Add it all up it it spells Monster Snows this Winter:
Predictions:
Boston (Logan): 94.6 inches
Providence: 87.3 inches
Worcester: 114.2 inches
Hartford: 96.8 inches
Portland Me: 133.1 inches
Concord NG: 174.2 inches
Last day of school in this scenario ….
June 30th !! 🙂 🙁
Vicki,
I tried to find my winter outlook post from a couple weeks ago, to no avail. 🙂
I’m 99% sure I went with 36.5 inches at Logan.
https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/
Logan-36.4 inches
Totals I have to date (Nov 11 noon) – did I miss anyone
Old Salty 94.6
Tjammer 67.6
Hadi 56.8
Matt 36.4
Charlie 29.3
Joshua 19.2
Vicki, please see above Matt’s post.
Hi Tom – not sure what you mean? 36.4 for Matt correct?
Sorry for the confusion.
My prediction is 36.5 inches, which I had noted in a post before Matt’s …. but that I did not see on your list. 🙂
Thank you for taking the time to keep the list.
I didn’t see your prediction. Thank you for letting me know. I will add 36.5 to yours. Did you give an indepth view or just the amount. I can’t find where you posted? Thanks, Tom.
Sometime in late October, I went searching, but no luck. Of course, I can never find my keys, so, no surprise there. 🙂 🙂 🙂
My prediction is 31.2 inches at Logan
I’ll predict 40.4″ for Logan.
I predict 54 inches for Logan.
Update
Old Salty 94.6
Tjammer 67.6
Hadi 56.8
Haterain 54.0
WxWatcher 40.4
Matt 36.4
Scott77 31.2
Charlie 29.3
Joshua 19.2
I’m in for 37.9 Vicki
Tom says:
October 28, 2014 at 8:27 PM
Winter Outlook
Since July 1, PNA Teleconnection has been positive perhaps 75 to 80 percent of the time. Thus, the big ridges, high western US heat and western US drought.
Since July 1, Arctic Oscillation has been negative perhaps 75 to 80 percent of the time. Thus, a few of the bigger summer and autumnal trofs we have seen with cooler shots here and there.
Since July 1, the NAO has averaged overall neutral, though I notice that a few positive and negative episodes lately have been reaching 1 standard deviation from normal.
So ….. In my opinion, the ultimate guessing game is ….. Do they continue the same or change ?
Of the 3, I’m guessing the NAO mostly stays the same. No big blocking this winter. I’m guessing the arctic oscillation isnt wont be negative as often this winter as its been, so more of the arctic airmasses will remain locked up in Canada. I also the strongly positive PNA will relax a bit, so things may get stormier in the Pacific Northwest and hopefully into California.
Add it all up and …..
Above normal temps on average by 1.5F, December – March
Slightly less than average snowfall, 36.5 inches at Logan. I think a couple of those Pacific systems, when the PNA isnt positive will cross the country and somehow will evolve into 2 or 3 decent snowfalls.
Had to deliver this now, as trimester 1, along with grades due ….. occur around mid November.
Found it Vicki !! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Well done Tom
Thank you Tom. So sorry I missed it first time around and you had to look
My snowfall prediction for Logan is 62.2
I’m in for 43.7. At least that’s what I think I recorded for me. It was done using my typical scientific approach
TK was kind enough to provide me with a link to norms for Boston. I did a quick view but the link is:
http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/boston/massachusetts/united-states/usma0046
Month avg high/avg lo – s=avg snow – p/i=avg precip per inch
Jan 36/22 – s 13 – p/i 3.35
Feb 39/25 – s 11 – p/i 3.27
March 45/31 – s 8 – p/i 4.33
April 56/41 – s 2 – p/i 3.74
May 66/50 – s 0 – p/i 3.5
June 76/60 – p/i 3.66
July 81/65 – p/i 3.43
Aug 80/65 – p/i 3.35
Sep 72/57 – p/i 3.43
Oct 61/47 – p/i 3.94
Nov 51/38 – s 1 – p/i 3.98
Dec 41/28 – s 9 – p/i 3.78
I have retrac, shotime and Tom’s both number and indepth
My winter forecast
Below is more for overall area (my area, etc.) rather than Boston specific since I do not think that is a good indication
December and January: warmer than average with about average snow
February: Slightly below average temps and above average snow with one major snow of 12+
March: Slightly below average temps and above average snow with a couple of moderate to large snows of 9-12
April: Average to slightly above average temps with one minor snow
Boston Total snow: 47.
correct that. My total is 43.7
Record this number if you please Vicki = 46.8″ 🙂
My Winter Forecast = Whatever TK says is ok with me. 😉
I hope there is more snow than I am predicting but I am going with 37.2 inches.
No blockbuster storms this winter. 2-4 widespread 6 plus inches of snow. Temps slightly above normal.
John says:
November 15, 2014 at 4:02 PM
Not sure if it gets posted here but I guess I’ll just go for it. This is all just a guess.
WINTER FORCAST
I’m going to go with the snow in Syberia and a weak elnino setting up to give us some decent snow . Two snow events in December one in the beginning let’s say 4 inches and one right before Xmas say the weekend before with a big one of at least 10 inches for Boston . Quiet first half of January with a very big storm the mlk weekend with a 20 inch storm more for south shore . Maybe one or two six inch storms as well. February 14 major storm of 25 inches for boston and again a couple of smaller ones for this month. March no snow at all, watchers but misses. So the bulk comes in with two big storms, a medium one and few smaller ones to give Boston let’s day 67.5 inches.
Put me in for 22.2″ at Logan, BUT i predict areas along the upper Cape will receive more than Logan
56.7 for Logan.
41.1
Where is the in depth analysis. And I’m feeling pretty good about my very scientific prediction now 🙂
See the regular blog. 😛
Awwww darn. That’s not where it is supposed to be 😉
Adding TKs here. I know you did a masterful job as part of the new blog and am sure you will remember where it is but this old mind will not …even as soon as tomorrow….did I say my confidence in my prediction is increased 😉
TK said
December: Tendency for AO/NAO to be alternating between weakly negative and weakly positive, a bit of a see-saw pattern, stronger Polar jet stream, weaker Subtropical jet stream, and a lack of phasing. Temperature near to above normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal.
January: Strong split flow, dominant Polar jet stream with moderate to strongly negative AO/NAO, but a little weaker than average Subtropical jet stream due to the lack of emergence of El Nino. Temperature below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal. This will be the month of the cold outbreaks.
February: AO/NAO starts out with a negative bias then trends more positive. Still a split flow pattern but Subtropical jet becomes more active and Polar jet weakens a little. Phasing of streams, which had been not happening too often, happens a few times and brings an increased risk of storminess, but at the same time less intrusion of Arctic air from Canada. Temperature above normal. Precipitation near to above normal. Snowfall above normal. This will be the month with the greatest risk of major snowfall, despite it being considerably “milder” than January.
March: The pattern of February may spill over into early March but then retrogression sends Winter out West as the East warms and dries ahead of seasonal normal. That means Winter departs quickly in New England. Temperature above normal. Precipitation below normal. Snowfall below normal.
Numbers I have recorded – did I miss anyone? Anyone else want to add their prediction(s)?
Old Salty 94.6
Tjammer 67.6
John 67.5
Shotime 62.2
Hadi 56.8
North 56.7
Haterain 54.0
Philip 46.8
Vicki 43.7
TK 41.1
WxWatcher 40.4
Retrac 37.9
JimmyJames 37.2
Tom 36.5
Matt 36.4
Scott77 31.2
Charlie 29.3
Ace 22.2
Joshua 19.2
Going for broke…and I hope this doesn’t happen… 100.1″
i say we end up at a nice even 70 inches! (at least here in methuen)
56 for Logan airport
Cat966G says:
November 17, 2014 at 12:51 PM
If I can still participate in the snowfall forecast. I will say 70″
Reply
avatarKeith-Hingham says:
November 17, 2014 at 12:53 PM
I guess I’ll make my predictio…..27 inches
Reply
I have WeatherWiz, Cat,bearl and Keith recorded
Nice WeatherWiz 🙂
I am in for 33.5.
This is the most up-to-date list I have. Did I miss anyone? I know there were a few last minute entries.
WeatherWiz 100.1
Old Salty 94.6
Cat966G 70.0
Tjammer 67.6
John 67.5
Shotime 62.2
Hadi 56.8
North 56.7
bearlb67 56.0
Haterain 54.0
Philip 46.8
Vicki 43.7
TK 41.1
WxWatcher 40.4
DS 38.4
Emily 38.0
Retrac 37.9
JimmyJames 37.2
Tom 36.5
Matt 36.4
Sue 33.5
Scott77 31.2
Charlie 29.3
Keith 27.0
Ace 22.2
Joshua 19.2
Old Salty says:
Logan +1 (Logan just sticks too far out into the Water)
Worcester -8 (elevation adds to cold)
Hartford -4
Providence 0 (Providence too far South and farther away from core of COLD)
Tom says:
Logan : 2F
Worcester : -4F
Hartford : -1F
Providence : 1F.
Hadi stays
My guess is Boston -1, Worcester -7, PVD +1 and Hartford at -4
Woods Hill Weather says:
January 5, 2015 at 5:24 PM
I’ll go Boston +3, Worcester -3, PVD +4, Hartford 0.
Sue says:
Boston 0
Worcester. -4
Providence 1
Hartford. -2
Vicki
Boston 5
Worcester. -2
Providence 6
Hartford. -1
JimmyJames says:
Bradley International Airport -2
Worcester – 5
Providence 0
Boston 1
shotime says:
Boston 3
Worcester -4
Providence 4
Hartford 2
North says:
Boston 2
Hartford 0
Worcester -3
Providence 60 (Charlie will be there). Just kidding 3
Boston 3
Worcester -1
Providence 1
Hartford 0
Vicki, if it’s not too late, I’ll put myself in for 35″.
Tom says:
January 24, 2015 at 1:59 PM
Logan : 21 inches
Plymouth : 27 inches
Marshfield : 31 inches and the actual jackpot location.
Hyannis : 19 inches
Nantucket : 8 inches
Lowell : 13 inches
Manchester, NH : 5 inches
Concord, NH : crying !!
Logan : 18 inches
Plymouth : 25 inches
Marshfield : 29 inches and rightfully the best place to be
Hyannis : 15 inches
Nantucket : 9 inches
Lowell : 16 inches
Manchester, NH : 8 inches
Concord, NH : 3 inches
Do you want to break the record for the snowiest winter (2014-2015) in Boston?
Yes
No
I do not care
If you just reply to this post we can see them all listed under each other
Yes!
YES!
I don’t care
Do not care. Let the heavens do what they will!
Yes
I do not care
I do not care. 🙂
From a plane headed to Florida, I say yes.
YES!!!
YES!
Yes
yes
Record will not be broken and please post poll from general population as I guarantee most will say they want no more snow.
Three choices John. We know this isn’t representative of anyplace but here
?
Can you pick one of the three choices?
Yes. With the amount of ice dam damage I have had we better at least break the record!
I do not care.
Yes!
My prediction for final total = 111.2″
Starting the 2015/2016 winter snow totals here.
Placeholder for Charlie while waiting for specific number.
Charlie says:
October 19, 2015 at 8:22 PM
Under 25 inches will fall, guaranteed!!!
Note from JimmyJames re Hartford predictions
For anyone making a snowfall prediction for Hartford the official measurements are not taken in the city of Hartford. They are taken at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks which is north of Hartford. Average snowfall 40.5 inches.
Thank you Vicki
Contest for 1st 1 inch of snow at Logan? I say 12/14/15
My snow totals for the year:
Boston 26.9
Providence 23.3
Worcester 51.4
Hartford 37.6
Concord 57.5
🙂
Boston: 61.3
Providence: 64.7
Worcester: 81.5
Hartford: 63.5
First measurable snowfall in Boston 12/8/15
Snowfall predictions:
Boston = 26.8″
Worcester = 51.4″
Providence = 23.8″
Hartford = 30.5″
First 1-inch snowfall for Boston/Logan = 12/7/15
Tom says:
November 4, 2015 at 9:16 AM
No way to post on the contest blog entry ….
Reply
Snow Predictions:
Boston/Logan = 67.8″
Worcester = 76.4″
Providence = 43.2″
Hartford = 55.5″
First 1-inch snowfall: 11/19
Here we go….
Boston/Logan = 22.8″
Worcester = 39.9″
Providence = 21.6″
Hartford = 30.3″
Concord NH = 55″
Hingham MA = 0
1st inch of snow at Logan? 🙂
Nice job Charlie. Thank you for the help. Greatly appreciated
oh thanks…forgot about that 🙂
1st inch at Logan 12/24
Shaparone tonight at the weeklong 6th grade class trip in Plymouth . On duty till 4am
I hope I am wrong with these snowfall predictions and there MUCH higher.
Boston 25.1
Providence 27.3
Hartford 29.6
Worcester 36.3
I am thinking a good chunk of these totals will come from a good size storm that will happen in February.
First inch of snowfall 12/21/15
Here goes nothing:
Boston: 36.5
Providence: 37
Hartford: 41.5
Worcester: 44.2
First inch of snow in Boston: 12/16
Boston/Logan = 37.4″
Worcester = 46.5″
Providence = 25.1″
Hartford = 36.3″
Boston: 36.2
Worcester 56.4
Providence 20.5
Hartford 38.4
First Inch of snow at Logan 12/12
Boston: 24.1
Worcester 52.3
Providence 19.7
Hartford 40.1
First Inch of snow at Logan 12/21
Boston 57.3
Worcester -69.8
Providence-42.6
Hartford-56.9
Boston- 29.9″
Providence- 26.6″
Worcester- 44.2″
Hartford- 34.7″
First inch at Logan 11/27.
My 2015-2016 Winter season snowfall estimate, guestimate, wishtimate:
Boston: 71″
Worcester: 82″
Providence: 59″
Hartford: 67″
I always get sucked in by the doom and gloom low forecasts, so I am NOT going there.
I’ll probably go down in flames, but I had fun trying. I brought my totals down
from what I was originally thinking.
First inch in Boston 12/1
Boston: 30″
Worcester: 45.5″
Providence: 25.5″
Hartford: 37.8″
First inch at Logan: 12/5/
Boston 21
Worcester 49
Providence 19
Hartford 43
First one inch,,…1/7/16 even though I want to say 12/9
Boston snow total 45.50 and first inch at Logan 12/5/15
Boston 53.5 inches and first inch November 30.
Worcester 75 inches
Providence 38 inches
Hartford 62.5 inches
These are the snow predictions I have so far. Please let me know if I have missed any.
Thank you to Sue who put the spreadsheet and the majority of predictions together for me 🙂
Name Boston Worcester Providence Hartford First Inch in Boston
Arod 61.3 81.5 64.7 63.5 8-Dec
Cat966g 8 22 10 20
Hadi 57.3 69.8 42.6 56.9
JimmyJames 25.1 36.3 27.3 29.6 21-Dec
Joshua 31.7 50.6 28.1 44.2
JPDave 71 82 59 67 1-Dec
Keith 22.8 39.9 21.6 30.3 24-Dec
Matt 36.2 56.4 20.5 38.4 12-Dec
Mel 37.4 46.5 25.1 36.3
Philip 26.8 51.4 23.8 30.5 7-Dec
Rainshine 30 45.5 25.5 37.8 5-Dec
Scott77 24.1 52.3 19.7 40.1 21-Dec
SS Kid 45.5 5-Dec
Sue 36.5 44.2 37 41.5 16-Dec
tjammer 67.8 76.4 43.2 55.5 19-Nov
Tom 30 37.5 35 32
Vicki 21 49 19 43 7-Jan
Weatherbee2 53.5 75 38 62.5
Weatherman 26.9 51.4 23.3 37.6 14-Dec
WxWatcher 29.9 26.6 44.2 34.7 27-Nov
Snow Contest 2015-2016
Boston: 29.9
Worcester: 49.9
Providence: 24.9
Hartford: 39.9
1st inch of snow at Logan Airport: December 6
North 38.3, 51.4, 34.5, 47.6 Nov 28
Boston: 61
Worcester: 72
Providence: 43
Hartford: 54
First snowfall in Boston: 12/2
I apologize for posting my contest numbers after the 11/15 9pm deadline. I will understand if they are not accepted!
You’re fine!
Thank you 🙂
Vicki
70 = March 13
80 = April 11
90 = June 18
2016 Leap Day Contest
70 – March 31
80 – May 27
90 – June 5
70-March 29th
80-May 2nd
90-May 30th
I will put on contest page
Reply
Thanks and got it, Charlie
70 – April 3
80 – May 21
90 – June 14
70 – March 28
80 – April 16
90 – June 3
Should be April 15. Can’t read my own writing!
70- March 17th
80- April 6th
90- May 16th
70: March 22
80: April 22
90: June 22
Got it – daughter #1 would approve as her birthday is July 22 and she thinks 22 is the only number that exists!
These are numbers I have so far. I jotted them down first and then added to spreadhseet. Like rainshine, I cannot read my own writing so please let me know if I have any incorrect numbers. Thank you
Charlie 3/29 5/2 5/30
ChaseCarry 4/2 4/25 5/25
Christie 4/3 5/21 6/14
GettingBetterAlways 4/14 5/30 6/20
JimmyJames 3/1 4/15 5/22
Joshua 3/21 4/13 6/5
Keith 3/21 4/22 4/23
Mark 3/28 4/19 4/30
Matt S 3/28 4/15 5/20
Philip 3/23 4/17 5/30
Rainshine 3/28 4/15 6/3
Shotime 3/31 5/27 6/5
Stephen Clarke 3/22 4/22 6/22
SteveT 3/12 4/6 5/16
Tom 3/14 4/21 4/21
Vicki 3/13 4/11 6/18
WeatherWiz 4/26 5/25 6/7
Ok, I decided not to wait. It’s just a guess anyway, so here goes:
1st 70 Degreee day – 3/19
1st 80 degreee day – 4/14
1st 90 degree day – 5/5
1st 100 degree day – 7/4
I know I added one. 😀
Newest list
Tom 3/14 4/21 4/21
Keith 3/21 4/22 4/23
Mark 3/28 4/19 4/30
JPDave 3/19 4/14 5/5
SteveT 3/17 4/6 5/16
Matt S 3/28 4/15 5/20
JimmyJames 3/1 4/15 5/22
ChaseCarry 4/2 4/25 5/25
Charlie 3/29 5/2 5/30
Philip 3/23 4/17 5/30
Rainshine 3/28 4/15 6/3
Joshua 3/21 4/13 6/5
Shotime 3/31 5/27 6/5
WeatherWiz 4/26 5/25 6/7
Christie 4/3 5/21 6/14
Vicki 3/13 4/11 6/18
GettingBetterAlways 4/14 5/30 6/20
Stephen Clarke 3/22 4/22 6/22
MassBay 4/30 5/15 7/7
Updated list as of 3:00 pm February 22
Arod 3/25 4/22 5/17
Charlie 3/29 5/2 5/30
ChaseCarry 4/2 4/25 5/25
Christie 4/3 5/21 6/14
GettingBetterAlways 4/14 5/30 6/20
JimmyJames 3/1 4/15 5/22
Joshua 3/21 4/13 6/5
JPDave 3/19 4/14 5/5
Keith 3/21 4/22 4/23
Mark 3/28 4/19 5/30
MassBay 4/30 5/15 7/7
Matt S 3/28 4/15 5/20
North 3/25 4/4 4/29
Philip 3/23 4/17 5/30
Rainshine 3/28 4/15 6/3
Shotime 3/31 5/27 6/5
SouthShoreKid 3/27 4/18 6/19
Stephen Clarke 3/22 4/22 6/22
SteveT 3/17 4/6 5/16
Tom 3/14 4/21 4/21
Vicki 3/13 4/11 6/18
WeatherWiz 4/26 5/25 6/7
Boston’s first 70 degree day: March 28.
Boston’s first 80 degree day: April 29.
Boston’s first 90 degree day: May 30.
Emily says:
February 29, 2016 at 5:15 PM
Boston’s first 70 degree day: April 2.
Boston’s first 80 degree day: April 30.
Boston’s first 90 degree day: June 15.
Reply
Scott77 says:
February 29, 2016 at 5:41 PM
Boston’s first 70-3/15
Boston’s first 80-4/21
Boston’s first 90-5/29
Reply
Kane says:
February 29, 2016 at 7:28 PM
First 70 degrees march 12
First 80 degrees april 9
First 90 degree may 22
My guess for the latest contest:
70 – 4/1
80 – 5/25
90 – 6/8
Sorted by earliest to latest date for 70 degree – Sue, did I get yours right?
Name 70 80 90
JimmyJames 3/1 4/15 5/22
Kane 3/12 4/9 5/22
Vicki 3/13 4/11 6/18
Tom 3/14 4/21 4/21
Scott77 3/15 4/21 5/29
SteveT 3/17 4/6 5/16
JPDave 3/19 4/14 5/5
Joshua 3/21 4/13 6/5
Keith 3/21 4/22 4/23
Stephen Clarke 3/22 4/22 6/22
Philip 3/23 4/17 5/30
Arod 3/25 4/22 5/17
North 3/25 4/4 4/29
SouthShoreKid 3/27 4/18 6/19
Mark 3/28 4/19 5/30
Matt S 3/28 4/15 5/20
Rainshine 3/28 4/15 6/3
TK 3/28 4/29 5/30
Charlie 3/29 5/2 5/30
Shotime 3/31 5/27 6/5
Sue 4/1 5/25 6/8
ChaseCarry 4/2 4/25 5/25
Emily 4/2 4/30 6/15
Christie 4/3 5/21 6/14
GettingBetterAlways 4/14 5/30 6/20
WeatherWiz 4/26 5/25 6/7
MassBay 4/30 5/15 7/7
Sorted lowest to highest snow predictions for Boston
Cat966g 8 22 10 20
Vicki 21 49 19 43 1/7/16
Keith 22.8 39.9 21.6 30.3 12/24/15
Scott77 24.1 52.3 19.7 40.1 12/21/15
JimmyJames 25.1 36.3 27.3 29.6 12/21/15
Philip 26.8 51.4 23.8 30.5 12/7/15
Weatherman 26.9 51.4 23.3 37.6 12/14/15
WxWatcher 29.9 26.6 44.2 34.7 11/27/15
Rainshine 30 45.5 25.5 37.8 12/5/15
Tom 30 37.5 35 32
Joshua 31.7 50.6 28.1 44.2
Matt 36.2 56.4 20.5 38.4 12/12/15
Sue 36.5 44.2 37 41.5 12/16/15
Mel 37.4 46.5 25.1 36.3
SS Kid 45.5 12/5/15
Weatherbee2 53.5 75 38 62.5
Hadi 57.3 69.8 42.6 56.9
Arod 61.3 81.5 64.7 63.5 12/8/15
tjammer 67.8 76.4 43.2 55.5 11/19/15
JPDave 71 82 59 67 12/1/15
2015-2016 snow predictions – Boston (ascending)
Name Boston
Cat966g 8
Vicki 21
Keith 22.8
Scott77 24.1
JimmyJames 25.1
Philip 26.8
Weatherman 26.9
WxWatcher 29.9
Rainshine 30
Tom 30
Joshua 31.7
Matt 36.2
Sue 36.5
Mel 37.4
SS Kid 45.5
Weatherbee2 53.5
Hadi 57.3
Arod 61.3
tjammer 67.8
JPDave 71
Total was 36.1 inches.
Winner: Matt
For Worcester
Name Worcester
Cat966g 22
WxWatcher 26.6
JimmyJames 36.3
Tom 37.5
Keith 39.9
Sue 44.2
Rainshine 45.5
Mel 46.5
Vicki 49
Joshua 50.6
Philip 51.4
Weatherman 51.4
Scott77 52.3
Matt 56.4
Hadi 69.8
Weatherbee2 75
tjammer 76.4
Arod 81.5
JPDave 82
Total was 47.2 inches.
Winner: Mel
For Providence
Name Providence
Cat966g 10
Vicki 19
Scott77 19.7
Matt 20.5
Keith 21.6
Weatherman 23.3
Philip 23.8
Mel 25.1
Rainshine 25.5
JimmyJames 27.3
Joshua 28.1
Tom 35
Sue 37
Weatherbee2 38
Hadi 42.6
tjammer 43.2
WxWatcher 44.2
JPDave 59
Arod 64.7
Total was 28.7 inches.
Winner: Joshua
For Hartford
Name Hartford
Cat966g 20
JimmyJames 29.6
Keith 30.3
Philip 30.5
Tom 32
WxWatcher 34.7
Mel 36.3
Weatherman 37.6
Rainshine 37.8
Matt 38.4
Scott77 40.1
Sue 41.5
Vicki 43
Joshua 44.2
tjammer 55.5
Hadi 56.9
Weatherbee2 62.5
Arod 63.5
JPDave 67
Total was 26.9 inches.
Winner: JimmyJames
2016/17 snowfall predictions as of 2/11/17
http://i.imgur.com/9zOrz4c.png
2017-2018 Snowfall Contest Cities…
Boston MA
Worcester MA
Providence RI
Hartford CT
Concord NH
Burlington VT
Portland ME
Submit guesses below.
Deadline November 30!
Boston MA: 24.2 inches
Worcester MA: 51.7 inches
Providence RI: 28.7 inches
Hartford CT: 41.2 inches
Concord NH: 61 inches
Burlington VT: 83.4 inches
Portland ME: 44.8 inches
Boston : 29.6 in
Worcester : 40.2 in
Providence : 25.8 in
Hartford : 32.3 in
Albany : 37.9 in
Concord NH : 51.7 in
Burlington VT : 63.4 in
I didn’t include Portland me I guess originally.
41.7 “
2017 snowfall contest below
MassBay says:
November 18, 2017 at 5:25 PM
Boston MA 50.8
Worcester MA 102.3
Providence RI 22
Hartford CT 43.1
Concord NH 77.7
Burlington VT 111.1
Portland ME 88.8
Longshot Boston only 38
I should have put mine in before MassBay…..foiled again. I am not sure I can use other numbers 🙂
Boston MA 43.2
Worcester MA 92
Providence RI 21
Hartford CT 29.6
Concord NH 78.9
Burlington VT 111.1
Portland ME 77.7
Boston 37.6
Worcester 58.7
Daniel Schrock says:
November 18, 2017 at 8:31 PM
Boston. 49.5
Worcester. 88
Providence. 35
Hartford. 45.75
Concord. 66.25
Burlington. 110.50
Portland, 80.5
2017 snow #’s…
Boston: 38.6
Worcester: 62.1
Providence: 32.7
Hartford: 36.8
Concord: 77.0
Burlington: 106.3
Portland: 88.9
JimmyJames says:
November 19, 2017 at 2:14 PM
Here we go with my predictions.
Boston 32.7
Worcester 51.3
Providence 28.4
Hartford 38.8
Concord 65.3
Burlington 72.1
Portland 78.6
2017 Snow Predictions:
Boston MA 43″
Worcester MA 64″
Providence RI 34″
Hartford CT 46″
Concord NH 62″
Burlington VT 95″
Portland ME 62″
2017-2018 Snow
Boston MA 34.6″
Worcester MA 58.7″
Providence RI 28.5″
Hartford CT 38.3″
Concord NH 56.4″
Burlington VT 84.8″
Portland ME 69.9″
Boston MA 28.4
Worcester MA 49.2
Providence RI 26.0
Hartford CT 31.3
Concord NH 61.5
Burlington VT 74.6
Portland ME 58.4
Boston MA 53.8″
Worcester MA 74.1″
Providence RI 28.8″
Hartford CT 48.0″
Concord NH 76.4″
Burlington VT 101.2″
Portland ME 76.9″
Just reposting the cities in the contest. Make a guess for as many of these as you wish!
2017-2018 Snowfall Contest Cities…
Boston MA
Worcester MA
Providence RI
Hartford CT
Concord NH
Burlington VT
Portland ME
Submit guesses below.
Deadline November 30!
Without going into details, here is my submission for the 2017-2018 Snowfall contest:
Boston MA 42.4
Worcester MA 58.7
Providence RI 27.3
Hartford CT 36.5
Concord NH 81.5
Burlington VT 76.4
Portland ME 72.7
Boston 46.4, Providence 38.7, Worcester 57.6, Hartford 53.5,
Ok here are mine…
Boston MA: 41.0
Worcester MA: 57.5
Providence RI: 32.5
Hartford CT: 44.5
Concord NH: 60.5
Burlington VT: 82.0
Portland ME: 54.5
What is my winter prediction for those who did not see it and want to.
https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/wp-admin/
My guesses for the contest
Boston 38.8
Worcester 55.7
Providence RI 23.5
Hartford(Bradly) CT 30.2
concord NH 65.8
Burlington VT 87.7
Portland ME 62.1
Boston MA: 54.0
Worcester MA: 68.0
Providence RI: 42.0
Hartford CT: 50.0
Concord NH: 76.0
Burlington VT: 88.0
Portland ME: 60.0
Boston 42.0″
Worcester 65.8″
Providence 35.0″
Hartford 47.4″
Concord 68.6″
Burlington 87.2″
Portland 69.5″
Boston 36.5″
Worcester 66.7″
Providence 31.1″
Hartford 47.2″
Concord 71.4″
Burlington 83.8″
Portland 61.7″
Hadi
Boston-52.8
Worcester-67.4
Providence-38.6
Hartford-49.6
Concord-76.5
Burlington-96.4
Portland-67.6
Snow total predictions for 2017/2018 season
https://i.imgur.com/Dq2xzO5.png
Updated snow predictions as of 3/12/18
https://imgur.com/a/QuziA
Annual Snow predictions for Winter season 2018-2019
First of all, the basis. My basis is mostly a guess, with some gut and experience thrown in. I would not wager any money on this, but my feeling on this Winter is that
We will have a preponderance of Cutters and Inside runners, mostly with coastal or near coastal redevelopments keeping mostly snow up North, but not so much in SNE, most especially near the coast. This will put a rather steep snow gradient coast to inland in place and when there is a good set up, the storm will be suppressed
to the South.
So here goes:
Boston (Logan) 28 inches
Boston (JP) 36 inches
Worcester 52 inches
Providence 23 inches
Hartford 41 inches
Portland, Me 60 inches
Concord, NH 75 inches
Burlington, VT 100 inches
Mountains, 200-300+ Inches
Here are my guesses.
Logan 31.4
JP 37.9
Worcester 58.3
Hartford 40.1
Portland, ME 65.5
Concord, NH 72.1
Burlington, VT 80.3
Boston (Logan) = 38.3”
Boston (JP) = 46.2”
Logan : 64.7 inches
JpDave : 65.9 inches
Snow predictions…
Boston/Logan – 48.2″
Boston/JP – 62.4″ (or another 58″ or so on the season)
Rationale:
1. All of Canada to our north is COLD with plenty of deep snow cover that isn’t going anywhere soon. Northern New England also has deep early season cover. Availability of cold air will not be a problem. While I do not agree with Dave that the current pattern of cutters will continue to be the predominant theme this winter, should we get a few, the prevalence of cold air and blocking to our north would provide a favorable scenario for cold air damming and up front “thump” of snow even with those systems (similar to what we saw a few weeks ago).
2. Active subtropical jet in weak El Nino pattern. Favors storm development over the Gulf coast and SE US coast. While we may be in a spilt flow pattern a lot this winter resulting in some of these storms be shunted out to sea harmlessly, I think the block to our north relaxes at times to allow some of these storms to ride up the coast. It only takes a few of these to quickly get up to average or above avg. snowfall on the winter.
3. High snow ratios as Tom alluded to. Very cold air in place towards late Jan-Feb will lead to a dry powdery snow from storms passing to our southeast. We could conceivably get a couple storms in, say February, that drop only 1 inch of melted precip, and get 15-20″ of snow out of them, while still ending up with near to below normal precip on the month.
4. Active polar jet will yield a number of clipper systems even in the scenario where we have a split flow setup and the southern storms go out to sea. Even a few tenths of precip from these more moisture starved systems could end up resulting in a moderate snowfall with ratios. A few of these can add up over the course of the winter as well.
Thus, call me biased, but I am still on board for above average snowfall on the winter!
TK’s snow predictions…
Logan: 38.0
JP: 44.0
My predictions…
Logan: 34.3
JP: 40.9
Might’ve gone higher but I’m starting to think December goes down with below or well below average snow, so that takes a bite out since the upcoming pattern is one you need to get decent snow out of if you want to hit the high numbers, and we likely won’t. But beyond then, it should be a progressive enough winter pattern to introduce occasional snow windows, as usual. A couple of them are bound to hit.
44.3 Logan
49. JPD
Here are my guesses.
Logan 50
JP 57
Worcester 90
Hartford 51.3
Portland, ME 74
Concord, NH 100
Burlington, VT 160
Mountains, 200-250
Jay Peak 402
Boston 28.50
Old salty 40
My guesses:
Logan – 25.50
JP – 35.00
Logan: 41.5 inches
JpDave: 46.8 inches
Logan: 30″
JPD: 38″
Logan: 72
JP: 78
Call me crazy I just feel we get walloped when we least expect it lol
Logan – 52
JP – 61
Logan:33.8
JP: 44.2
Logan 56.2, JP 62.4
Final copy of 2018/2019 Snow Predictions (Logan / JPD’s House)
https://imgur.com/a/ZAe3tfD
Logan : 41.2 inches
JP : 50.7 inches
Logan : 49 inches
JP : 64 inches
Good morning, I think I may be the first.
Enjoyed looking at some guesses from last year. It looks like WxWatcher
was the closest of all.
Here is my entry for this upcoming Winter of 2019-2020
Logan: 37.3 inches
JP 42.6 inches
I fear I am destined to fail.
If I go high, results will be low.
If I go low, results will be high.
Thus I took the middle ground. 🙂
See above 2 posts 🙂 🙂
Mark’s Place 44.2 inches
Logan 52.5 inches
JP: 60.1 inches
Logan 35.7
JPD 46.2
Logan 25.2
JP: 30.1
Logan 43.29
JPD 49.11
Logan 52.5
JP57.6
Logan 43.29
JPD 49.19
Mark 63.14
JPD. Are you doing spreadsheet or did you want me to?
Oh, I’ll do my house, Logan and Mark if you could do all of the contestants.
thanks
2019-2020 snowfall contest…
General Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport: 40.0 inches
JP #%@^&@! Dave’s Place: 50.0 inches
Mark “The Islanders Fan” Observation Station: 60.0 inches
I see that we have quite a range in the snow predictions. It always makes it fun. 🙂
Here it goes for the winter of 2019-2020.
Logan 39.8 inches
JpDave 47.3 inches
Mark 50.2 inches
I got this exactly right last year for BDL when I predicted 40.1 inches for the season.
This year BDL 41.9 inches of snow
Logan 27.5 inches
Old salty – 40 inches
Mark – 63.5
OK, here are my “final” guesses. I nudged them up a bit from my original guess from last week….
Logan 47.3″
JP Dave 57.9″
Mark/Coventry 70.1″
RATIONALE (re-posting from last week):
I have looked at several of the indices again and also read a number of winter forecasts posted thus far from reputable mets for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Here are my takeaways and thoughts.
1. Neutral ENSO – No defined El Nino or La Nina. Less active but NOT non-existent subtropical jet.
2. Siberian and Canadian snow cover – widespread. Should be ample cold air supply. Also points to a higher likelihood of a -AO which supports cold in the northern US
3. SST warming event upcoming could displace the PV and provide the mechanism to send colder air down here come mid January and beyond.
4. Warm waters in the North Pacific to promote +PNA and ridging in the west and trough/colder air in the eastern 2/3 of the US.
5. Warmer than normal waters still in the N Atlantic. This could result in some Greenland blocking (-NAO) which further supports wedging of cold air into the NE and sometimes east coast storminess. -NAO is something we haven’t seen much of in the past few years.
6. Solar minimum – we are at the lowest in a very long time. This can further support more cooling.
7. MJO – always a wildcard but +IOD and suppressed convection in the eastern Indian Ocean could support the colder phases of the MJO at least the first part of the winter.
Put all this together and here’s what I think:
1. December and first half of January – rollercoaster jetstream, cold shots mixed with milder spells, a few snow events and several mix/rain events with storm track varying (some west, some east of us), near to below normal snow
2. Later January into Feb and March – more sustained cold spells and stormier, above normal snow, more storms tracking S/E of us.
3. With less active subtropical jet, I’d expect more clippers and moisture starved northern stream systems, but any of them tracking over the Ohio Valley would have the potential to redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic and track NE, giving us some decent coastal snowstorms (your 4-8′ and 6-12″ type storms).
4. Introduce some blocking and I could see one of these systems with more explosive development and slower movement, resulting in the chance for a bigger storm (12-18″+?)
Overall, I am thinking above normal snow (but not MUCH above normal) for SNE….
45-55″ Boston and Hartford
65-75″ Worcester and Coventry
I was tempted to re-use my numbers from last year… but will opt to add to them just a bit and add in a guess for Mark.
Logan’s fortress of solitude: 38.6″
JP Dave’s winter emporium: 47.0″
Mark’s snow supercenter: 53.1″
🙂 🙂 🙂
That’s more like a convenient store with that guess 🙂
Hahaha
Adding in Coventry to my guess as I posted prior to including’ Mark’s location.
Logan 35.7
JPD 46.2
Mark 55.6
Here are my guesses.
Logan 37.3″
JP Dave 45.2″
Mark 65.7″
JPD…not sure what you mean about your doing your your House, Marks and Logan and I will do other contestants. Aren’t we just Doing those three?
I think he means he will keep track of the snow/event totals by location and you will compile everyone’s guesses.
Thank you both by the way!
Ahhhhh. Makes sense. Will do. Should have computer up and running again on Friday. Thank you Mark
Ok, I’m using professor Marvel’s crystal ball on this one.
Logan: 49.8”
JP Dave: 57.6”
Mark: 78.6”
Logan : 41.2
JP : 50.7
Mark : 62.1
Logan 47.5”
JPD 53.5”
Mark 65.0”
Logan 59.8
JP Dave 65.7
Mark 76.8
As today is the deadline for snow amounts I want to revise my guesses for the season;
Logan 45.2
JP: 50.1
Not changing because of any upcoming storm but mainly because the last time I guessed higher we got low snow totals for the season and I want that to happen again because I hate snow even though I love tracking it. LMAO!
So you’re guessing low to get high numbers. Love it. 🙂
To clarify: I guessed way lower before up above because I wasn’t looking forward to any snow. Then I realized today “wait a minute. If I guess low then we will get high numbers! I have to guess higher so we get lower numbers!” Haha
Hahahahah – I understood but consider your new numbers low also 🙂 🙂 🙂
I’ll place this on main page also but here are the snow predictions. Please let me know if I recorded yours incorrectly.
https://imgur.com/a/4ksBPza
Logan 40
JP Dave’s 60
Mark 70
Sorry for the lateness on my predictions, I been bogged down with Finals. 2 down 1 left, party Thursday night and again Friday and then Going home for the break Saturday
Sorry for the delay, never caught the post
Logan-56.7
JP Dave-67.9
Mark-76.9
Here are my guesses for 2020-2021 total snowfall…
Boston MA: 46.8
Worcester MA: 60.1
Providence RI: 40.4
Hartford CT: 45.5
Concord NH: 69.8
Boston MA: 35.3
Worcester MA : 54.1
Providence RI: 30.7
Hartford CT: 48.5
Concord NH: 67.4
Boston MA: 41
Worcester MA: 65
Providence RI: 32
Hartford CT: 45
Concord NH: 75
normal to slightly below normal south/east
Average to above average north/west
For better or worse, here are my 2020-2021 snowfall predictions (more like guesses than predictions)
Winter 2020-2021 Snow Fall
Boston, Logan: 31.7 inches
Worcester: 42.3 inches
Providence: 24.6 inches
Hartford: 36.1 inches
Concord NH: 53.8 inches
Tom
NOVEMBER 18, 2022 AT 8:55 AM
Thanks TK !
Here are my snowfall guesses for this year (22-23).
My guess is predicated on a consistent spreading of snow throughout astronomical winter. I don’t think it will be front-loaded.
Logan: 66.3 inches
Worcester: 81.4 inches
Hartford: 58.3 inches
Providence: 49.8 inches
Meteorological winter temps: avg to 0.8F above average.
Joshua
NOVEMBER 18, 2022 AT 2:30 PM
Thank you, TK.
My predictions (btw, Boston will get less snow this winter than Buffalo’s suburbs today and this weekend):
Logan: 30.3 inches
Worcester: 51.7 inches
Hartford: 42.3 inches
Providence: 26.7 inches
Meteorological winter temps: 1.2F above average
Here are my predictions.
Boston: 28.1 inches
Worcester: 48.3 inches
Hartford: 35.1 inches
Providence: 23.2 inches
Got it. Scott do you want to add one for concord nh?
Concord, NH: 54.2
Thanks Vicki!
Got it. Thank you